As of tonight, Mark Prior becomes the free agent pitcher with the highest upside. I have no idea what the condition of his stuff is right now, what the status of his injuries are, etc, which is probably not a good thing.
However, if Prior comes within even 75 percent of the pitcher he was from 2002-2005, he’ll be better than any of the crapola hanging around in free agency.
Mark Prior might not pitch a single inning in 2008. He also might win 15 games and strike out 200 batters. As long as the Mets don’t bank their season on him, there’s no way this comes back to bite them.
Yes, Mark Prior might be this decade’s Steve Avery. There are a more than a few pitchers, however, who rose from the ashes of their careers to comeback and be productive. One of his closest PECOTA comparables after 2006 was Jim Lonborg, who won 22 games in 1967 before falling to 13-21 over the next two seasons and then appearing in just nine games in 1970 at age 28. The year after that, however, he went 10-7 with a 4.13 ERA and although he wasn’t quite the same pitcher, he went on to have some very good seasons with the Phillies.
Even if he doesn’t have the stuff to be a solid starter, perhaps he could be converted, a la his buddy Kerry Wood, to a lower-pressure relief role.
This is a chance for the Mets to flex their financial muscle. The problem with most contracts is their length, not their dollar value. I think the Mets should offer him 10 million guaranteed for one year. If he tanks, so what? He’ll be off their hands after the year. And if he’s successful–say, he can replace Glavine’s numbers in the rotation (12-13 W, 4-4.50 ERA), or better–he can put the Mets over the top.
Just as importantly, signing Mark Prior might get the media monkeys off Omar Minaya’s back for the time being, something which cannot be overstated. Bored sportswriters have been calling for Omar’s head unless he trades Reyes, Wright, and the entire AA Binghamton roster for Johan Santana or just about anybody whose name they’ve heard of, not because it will make the team better, but because it will temporarily be very exciting.
Trading the farm for an obligatory ace won’t help the Mets as much as people want to believe. Unfortunately, signing a guaranteed mediocrity like Livan Hernandez would be even worse.
What the Mets really need is a short-term option to hold down the fort, so to speak, until they can pursue Santana, Sabathia, or Ben Sheets on the free agent market next year. The worst thing they can do would be to forgoe going after an ace because they’ve already commited x millions to Kyle Lohse for seven years.
Mark Prior is as close as the Mets can get to both improving for 2008 and having the ability to win beyond that.
Okay, I’m done.