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November 14, 2007
Three Free Agents the Mets Shouldn’t Sign
This time of year baseball fans are free to imagine delightful transactions in which their teams are improved with little sacrifice. Even if these imagined deals are not unrealistic—Kevin Mulvey, Fernando Martinez and Carlos Gomez to the Twins for Johan Santana—they often fill in the blanks with hopeful results: Santana is quickly given a reasonable extension of five years at $20 million per, Gomez never develops plate discipline, Mulvey becomes a replacement-level starter, and Martinez is overmatched at higher levels. Free agents who are signed provide their maximum value over the term of their contracts. Jorge Posada is signed for four years, and traded for some sweet prospects after two. Alex Rodriguez moves to first and smashes 65 home runs a year. Or Paul Lo Duca comes back and hits .330 again, just like 2006. For three years. The truth is that there is risk involved in any deal. With the options either inappropriate or weak at every position the Mets need to improve, the best value would come from standing pat, or so says Tim Marchman. But that’s probably not going to happen. Therefore, in the spirit of the hot stove season, I will offer not my ideal scenario, but my worst. I won’t put ridiculous things on the table, only possible things. Though it would be interesting to explore any number of Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, Chad Cordero and Joe Blanton trade scenarios, here I will limit myself to free agent signings. 1) The Mets Sign Lo Duca This might be close to happening. Ken Rosenthal recently reported that if the Mets don’t sign Posada (and they didn’t) they’ll sign Lo Duca. Though reports have changed, bringing back Lo Duca is certainly a possibility. And it is a bad move for many reasons. First, Lo Duca is a mediocre hitter who is getting worse. 2006 was an aberration; his fantastic .318/.355/.428 line was largely the result of a .336 BABIP. Meanwhile, Lo Duca’s .272/.311/.378 line in 2007 was due to a .271 BABIP. He is prone to these dramatic shifts because he is a player who relies solely on batting average. He has no patience, speed, or power. What’s more, he’s an old catcher whose defensive skills are also suspect. If the Mets are compelled to bring in a catcher with such a limited skill set, they should probably think a little younger. In my worst case scenario, Paulie gets three years, $18 million and hits .260/.300/.350 over the life of the contract, the last two years of which are shortened by injury. 2) The Mets Sign Luis Castillo I like walks as much as the next stat geek, and Castillo is as good as any other second baseman available, but there are other, better options. If the Mets sign Castillo to a long-term contract, he’ll end up playing second base every day, healthy or not, batting second like the good slap-hitter he is. The problem is that he is not the player he used to be, but that won’t matter when he’s on the roster and favored by the manager. First, his defensive skills are overstated; defensive metrics consistently rate him about average or below average. For instance, by Revised Zone Rating Castillo would have ranked tenth out of the eleven qualified AL second basemen, and tied for ninth out of twelve NL second basemen, just below defensive wizard Ronnie Belliard. Castillo may have all the heart in the world, but that won’t save him from weak knees, failing speed, and diminishing range. Second, he is out of place batting second. There, I said it. While batting average isn’t as important as most people think, one of the primary findings of sabermetric research into lineup construction is that the most important skill for the two-hole is slugging percentage. Not scrappiness, not going the other way, not contact-rate, but slugging. With a career mark of .368, Castillo is woefully inadequate. Finally, a point about free agency: Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner reports that “the average pre-arbitration player only makes about $500,000 per win, arbitration eligible players make about $2 million per win, and free agents make about $4 million per win.” Since there’s not much separating Castillo from the likes of Damion Easley, Ruben Gotay, Marlon Anderson, or even Anderson Hernandez, there’s simply no reason to pay him like there is. In my worst case scenario, the Mets sign Castillo to a four-year, $28 million contract. 3) The Mets Sign Carlos Silva I’ll again defer to Dave Cameron on this one. He lists Silva as a “free agent landmine,” comparing him to Nick Blackburn, a relatively unknown minor leaguer in the Twins organization:
There are literally dozens of minor leaguers with the same abilities as Silva, and there is no good reason to pay him what the free agent market commands except to be able to say, “We shored up our pitching.” As with Castillo, there are better, cheaper options, and their names are Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey. If the Mets want reliable, innings-eating pitchers, there is Livan Hernandez. Livan is a better match for Shea Stadium anyway; just like his brother Orlando, his fly ball tendencies will suit the Mets just fine. In my worst case scenario, the Mets sign Silva for four years and $48 million. Three mediocre-to-average players, four years, and $94 million. None of this is crazy, and none of it is unlikely, either. But these three deals would make the Mets worse and give them less flexibility in the future. John Peterson hates old players on principle. You can read his stylized ravings regularly at Blastings! Thrilledge. 42 Responses to “Three Free Agents the Mets Shouldn’t Sign”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Good analysis, John.
Just to help you sleep better (or maybe not?), the NYTimes and Newsday are currently reporting that the Mets are getting very close to signing Torrealba.
nice article, and hopefully we can get Torrealba, that would be nice. I’M just reading the Mets top 50 players on nyfansonly.com and they have at #14 Nathan Vineyard, they said he was our first round draft pick and I almost forgot we had a supplemental draft pick. Never heard of the guy, but he’s 19 years old and already throwing 93 mph, and a left hander.
I think the Mets need to save their money until the 2008 season is over, Humber, Mulvey, Kunz, and Brant Rustich needs to be in the bullpen to start the season. Humber the long reliever, Mulvey, Kunz, and Rustich power relievers. By the way Rustich is rated #4 for the Mets and he throws in the high 90’s. These 4 pitchers can take the place of Mota, Shittywiese, Sele, and who over the hell aren’t name Heilman and Wagner. Because unlike Mota, Sele and crappyweise those players will only get better with each outing and they come very cheaply, more money for us to go out and get a ACE in 2008. I’M very interested in Rustich, his numbers in the minors make him look unhittable as the league batted .125 against him. I remember some of his games while he was at UCLA and he just made people take some of the wildest swings at his pitches. Oh yeah, I almost forgot about Joe Smith. :) We can fill our relief pitching problem from within.
I like that list of young pitchers that we can choose from this year to fill our pen needs.
HOW TO WIN THE 2008 WORLD SERIES:
Lo Duca, Castillo… who cares: these guys should be batting seventh and eight in the lineup, which in the NL doesn’t matter. Castillo for his defense, LoDuca because there’s not significantly better out there, and he’s a good guy who wants to be a Met, which should count for a lot.
Now to the important moves:
Sign A-Rod, have him or Wright flip a coin as to who plays first. Trade Delgado for a bag of balls (or a couple of projects for the jacket), and eat 5 million or so. The dude was lost at the plate in 2007, & doesn’t have any team spirit.
Sign Livan Hernandez to replace Glavine. (At least he’ll wanna be here, and he took *his* team to the playoffs last year.)
Sign Mariano: at least offer him a million dollars a year more than the Yankees offer him. With Torre gone against his explicit wishes, and with the insulting way the Yankees didn’t extend his contract last spring, but offered to negotiate with Rodriguez, I could see Mariano making the move… What a coup it would be, to get that classy killer on our team! *Wagner failed us miserably when it counted two years in a row* !!! He will have to agree to being a 10 saves per year guy/ 8th inning set up man for the best closer in baseball history…
No prospects gone! Pedro is going to have a kick ass year! Maine and Ollie will improve to 17 wins / 200 innings! Duaner and Padilla will be back. LMIllz is gona hit .300 and mash in his first full season batting after Reyes (read: see a ton of fastballs) and in front of Wright, Rodriguez, Beltran, and Alou! We’re gona win 105 games!!!
Ok, Stan, I’ll bite. Sign A-Rod and eat part of Delgado’s contract? Then go and buy Mariano? Have you already spent MY paycheck, too?
LOL… No dude, it’s Wilpon’s money… You can’t put a price on having the best offensive/defensive lineup and the best bullpen in the bigs, can you??? (Not to mention the deepst 1-5 pitching staff). Get er done. Anyway, after the Collapse we frickin deserve it. Let Wilpon sell his yacht or quit his coke habit or whatever!
So we should sign Month for 3 yrs $48 m? That’s what it would take using your rationale Stan.
Spend $16 m plus $11 m for 2 relievers? No thanks.
Livan Hernandez sucks. His peripherals suck. No thanks.
I’m fine with Castillo for 2 or 3 yrs.
Don’t count on PLD. SNY had a hit piece on the website yesterday. Paulie aint gonna look kindly on that, fair or not (and it was borderline unfair).
John - thanks for a well thought, reality based plan. I am so tired of reading comments calling for over priced dh types at every position. Stan - the only problem with spending Wilpon’s money like you’re playing monopoly is that very soon general admission tickets will be $50 each, hot dogs will cost $15 each and televised broadcasts will be pay per view. Paying a no longer invincible all time great closer $16.0m will have a trickle down effect. As soon David or Jose are in a position to renegociate, they will want $20-25.0m per year, after seeing an over the hill 40yr old receive $16.0m. Suddenly reserves wont be happy at $1.0m, but will want $5.0m. It all adds up. Most posters seem to agree Castillo is only average defensively at best. Why not give Ruben & Anderson the chance to show what they can do. Ruben was a nice surprise last year for a month or two before getting hurt. We need a young defensive catcher; Ramon is a great backup and power threat off the bench. We have been too old for too long.
I’m sorry, nothing I saw last year altered by previous perception that Castillo is among the most overrated players in MLB. Pure singles hitter, and half of those singles are infield hits. Could somebody explain to me why one would sign Castillo when Eckstein is available? They’re like the same player, except Eckstein’s knees work and he’d cost less.
Can someone explain why Torrealba is a better bet than Lo Duca? The numbers are almost identical (and Paulie _wants_ to be here — plus he’s good theater).
I couldn’t disagree some of this more. Castillo is a serviceable 2nd basemen. At this time he’s better than any of the alternatives. I’d prefer to know what I’m getting with Castillo than hoping that Gotay or Anderson can improve. Eckstein, I’d imagine would cost more than Castillo. If there is a better proven option at 2nd’ I’d be more than happy to hear about that, but besides a lot of complaining about Castillo, I don’t hear those names.
torrealba? he’s an offensive liability and while a better fielder, it’s not a significant upgradge. He may be more affordable, but it’s not like Lo Duca is breaking the bank. Torrealba is a same peice and unlikely to translate into any progress.
Silva is mediocre.
smalps — there are a few reasons Torrealba is better than LoDuc:
Torrealba is younger and will likely continue to play at the same level or improve, while Lo Duca is on the downside of his career and will likely decline and face injury issues.
Torrealba plays better defense (he had a bad year throwing our runners last year, but historically he’s been much better than that — Lo Duca’s been dreadful at getting runners for years)
Castro needs to play more games and Lo Duca has a tantrum anytime he isn’t in the lineup.
Re: Catching
Torrealba is going to be massively overrated in this market because he was on a playoff team and hit a home run in October, and the only reason his overall offensive numbers look respectable is that he played half his games in Denver. That being said, given the difference in age, there’s a good chance he’ll be a better player than Lo Duca over the next couple of years, but not good enough to justify not trading for Ramon Hernandez.
Re: Second Base
Awesome. While it does fly in the face of conventional wisdom, intuitively speaking it makes perfect sense:
http://mvn.com/mlb-mets/2007/11/12/looking-back-looking-forward-part-6-2nd-base/
Also, Castillo is not a good bet to stay healthy over the course of a multi-year deal.
Re: Pitching
I disagree that Livan Hernandez would be a better option than Silva. If I have to choose between 2 mediocre innings-eaters, I’d rather take the one with the good walk rate.
The idea of Kunz and Rustich being ready in 2008 is laughable. Yes, Rustich dominated…in short season low-A ball. Kunz didn´t even dominate there, though he was tired after a long college season and had a very small sample size.
After a hot start, Joe Smith didn´t dominate at the ML level either, despite a funky delivery. Let´s not get too carried away expecting a lot from our young prospects.
It’s possible that Kunz and/or Rustich might fly up the systems during 2008, and perhaps get a cup of coffee sometime in late 2008 (Joba Chamberlain started 2007 in High-A ball, for instance). There’s no chance that either will break camp with the team.
I enjoyed this entry, John. I am 100% convinced that Omar will not re-sign LoDuca, unless every other option falls apart. The other two things you mention, I see a good chance of both of those happening though.
A better option at second would be Tad Iguchi (assuming he hasn’t resigned with Philly). He a better hitter than Castillo and at least as good defensively. Another option would be Marcus Giles, although he hasn’t hit much the last two years, his defense is outstanding and he’d probably come cheap. He would be a good low-risk/high reward-type signing.
If you’re going to sign Livan Hernandez, why not go all the way and just bring back Lima Time? Hell, why not just get an old-school pitching machine, set it to 80 MPH and send it out there every fifth day? Better yet, let the other team bat off a tee.
Kunz’ reputation is a lot better than his numbers. His K rates were very pedestrian in college for a short reliever: 6.3 and 7.1 K/9 in his two full seasons in the PAC 10.
Consistent major-league relievers generally have high K rates, so I’m a little skeptical of Kunz. On the bright side, he didn’t allow a HR in his last two college seasons, so he’s obviously good at keeping the ball down.
This is a hoot:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/15/sports/baseball/15yanks.html?hp
I agree with Jessica about Torrealba. He is a career backup who is now overrated because “he was on a playoff team and hit a home run in October.” The Mets should just make Castro the starter.
Re: Livan, I suspect he’ll be much cheaper than Silva. The Mets would also get more value out of Livan’s skills (fly ball pitcher) than Silva’s (contact, ground balls). Finally, Livan will get a 2-year contract at most, while Silva will be looking for 4-5 years.
I don’t think any of the available 2B are worth signing, honestly. The Mets should just platoon Easley/Gotay and see how they work out. If it weren’t for a vicious media, they would be able to do reasonable things like that.
i don’t see how Silva is a better investment than Hernandez. Hernandez eats innings and seems to keep the ball in the park. He’d be cheaper and get less years while being basically the same pitcher.
i read recently that the mets are trying to sign both castro and torrealba, with the idea that castro would get a little more than half the starts. if both contracts are 2/8 (which seems about right, considering that the rockies are offering torrealba 2/8), that is a brilliant and possibly best-possible-case-scenario move. $8 million a year for above average offense and above average defense at the most important position on the field.
also, i’m manifestly unclear on why everybody and their mom thinks we even need another starter in the first place. signing silva or hernandez (or lohse or et al) is, in my mind, a move of desperation. these are not good pitchers. pedro/hernandez/perez/maine/pelfrey seems like a very good rotation to me, not to mention that humber and mulvey are excellent replacements for the inevitable injuries. if the twins want to do garza for gomez, fine, that’s a great move. signing a mediocre free agent (or trading multiple good prospects for blanton or garland) is not.
e poc, The Mets need to have additional starters lined up beyond the five you identify, because (1) El Duque can’t pitch a whole season, (2) Pelfry hasn’t shown he can start and (3) somebody’s going to get hurt over the course of the season. I would rather that they plug Livan Hernandez in as the #5 and have Pelfry come in out of the pen, where he’ll be a lot more effective. I actually think Pelfry could be a very good reliever, whereas he’ll be a #5 caliber starter, *at best*.
my point is why not go with humber, then, or mulvey. they’d be so much cheaper than hernandez and almost as good. best of all, we wouldn’t have to sign them to foolish three year contracts. i’m quite certain that there are better things we could use that money for in the coming three years (santana, ollie’s (hopeful) extension, a first baseman next offseason, etc.). we’ve got four good starters and enough decent young guys to fill the fifth spot and any injury time.
If I’M wrong but I constanstly read on here that there was no way Joe Smith was going to break camp with us last year. But in Rustich and Kunz you have two polished closer type pitchers who pretty much dominant in college its not like they are going to have to sit and learn for 2 years. I have no ideal why the Mets continue to draft high prospects straight from college and start them in Low A ball while other organizations they would go straight to Double A or Triple A. Kunz was not used right when he did join his current minor league team they had so much quality depth there that he would go 5-7 days before getting into a game, I’M not looking at that small sample of what Kunz can do or did. All I’M saying is this, they are relief pitchers and we need relief pitchers and even though they are young they can’t be nearly as bad as Mota and Crappywiese. If they make it on the team fine, if they don’t fine I’M just saying the Mets have some great internal options if they want to give the guys a shot.
I think getting A-Rod would work out great for the Mets, with him and a trade to get Santana the Mets would be front runners for the World Series from the National League. I can just imagine the power numbers he would produce stuck inbetween Wright and Beltran you would have to pitch to him, and not only would A-Rod benefit from that but how much better would Wright and Beltran’s numbers be with A-Rod batting in the middle of them. That could give the Mets the most unfair advantage in all of baseball.
1. Jose Reyes
2. David Wright
3. A-Rod
4. Carlos Beltran
5. Carlos Delgado
6. Mosies Alou
7. Milledge
8. whoever are catcher is
Lets all hope that Lastings Milledge doesn’t make another Rap song or do anything stupid to cloud his future with the Mets this off season
I actually disagree about Silva, while I agree that his stuff is replacable, I think coming to Shea and the NL with our lineup would make him an excellent fit for our 5th slot. I wouldnt want to spend the Money you mention (and honestly Omar has been pretty good about avoiding that kind of deal), but a 3 year deal at 6-8 per (about half of the total you are afraid of). I could easily see Silva winning 15 games for us next year and taking a little relief off of our bullpen. If Silva can get 4 years 48 (no way I see him getting 12 mil a year for that long), then I can almost guarantee he will not be wearing a Met uniform.
Omar has proven in the past he would rather work a trade for that kind of talent for a better contract than sign something that long and that high for Silva. Now 2 years 24 I could see, but I still think 3 24-26 is where Silva ends up.
On Castillo I disagree with you there as well. I see Omar looking for a 2 year deal MAYBE with an option for 3. If Castillo is looking 4 years I just don’t see Omar bitting, although I am less confident in that than I am with Silva.
I just don’t see PLD as a Met next year and it does look like we are going to overpay to get Yorvit in a uni next year. While I like bringing him in, the 3 years 15-20 mil seems more than a bit excessive to me, but money aside I think it will be a good move, and I do trust Omar not to over commit his resources, if he sees 15-20 for Yorvit then he will get it done with that.
Castillo, games played, last 3 years, year by year from 2005, 122, 142, 135.
Eckstein, 158, 123, 117.
Castillo has durability issues. So does Eckstein.
RZR, converted into runs above average, Castillo was 3 runs below average. Zone Rating, 1 runs below average.
For comparison, Tad Iguchi, 4 runs below average by RZR, average by Zone Rating.
Kelly Johnson, 4 runs below average by RZR, 6 runs below average by Zone Rating.
Offensively, per Baseball Prospectus’ Batting Runs Above average, Castillo was average last year. 0 runs above average. Defensively, averagin out RZR and ZR, converted into runs, about 2 runs below average defensively. Give him about 3-5 runs for positional adjustment, ie playing 2nd base.
In total, about average.
Average, is not great, but it’s definitely NOT replacement level.
“While batting average isn’t as important as most people think, one of the primary findings of sabermetric research into lineup construction is that the most important skill for the two-hole is slugging percentage.”
True. And even then, OBP is still more important than SLG, at #2, IIRC.
Some thoughts -
Someone please tell me what their is to like about Torrealba?
In regards to *not* resigning Luis Castillo & signing Carlos Silva, I can’t help but throw in a political reference, because I seem to read it so often on these boards - “A lot of you must be democrats, because all you can seemingly do is bash ideas without giving realistic better ideas of your own”. Not saying Castillo & Silva are the best options, but if you don’t want them on the Mets for one reason or another, how about suggesting BETTER alternatives?
And is anyone else sick of hearing A-Rod’s name yet? He’s got as much of a chance of coming to the Mets as Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera do.
Super T… Your point could have been made without any political reference. I could have the most brilliant idea ever…..and what good would it do? Last time I checked, my tickets did not give me voting rights.
And if you’re interested in the answer to your question about Torrealba….read the interview with the Denver Post reporter on Metsblog.
Shea..
I do normally steer clear of politics, but sometimes it’s hard not take a swipe while making ones point ;-)
And I did read the interview on Torrealba and sorry I’m still not seeing it. The only positives I gathered was he is younger than Lo Duca, played all the playoff games for the Rockies while hitting decently in the playoffs, and seemed to be well liked. Doesn’t seem like enough to give him $10M. Feel like I’m still missing something here.
Super T…..I was actually aghast to read that the Mets would offer him $15M. I felt better when I saw the offer was only for 2 years. I also like that the pitchers love him and he’s a fierce competitor and stand up guy who’s great in the clubhouse and with the media. The truth is Super T…I can’t stand LoDuca and I’m tired of his act and there is no one else out there….so I could live with 3 years. And I did suggest trading for Hernandez. Do I get credit for that?
The above should read…I could live with 2 years ( not 3)
I would answer your question, but as a Republican you would just trivialize any decent and ignore anyone more who might be more intelligent then you.
See Super T…I warned you not to get political. Not look what thou hast wrought…..lol!
Wow Shea, I wasn’t specifically referring to anyone in particular in my earlier post #29 here…I just normally surf around to a few Met web sites, come read a thread or two here and about 10-20 of the subsequent posts, and then sometimes feel compelled to make a post or two of my own based on my overall feelings from what I have read. Wasn’t talking about any poster in particular.
I’ve also stated at different times that I’m in favor of a trade for Ramon Hernandez as well. But, I honestly think I would just as soon take PLD back over Torrealba for that (2 yrs $10M). I just don’t see alot of positive baseball contributions in his game playing abilities. Sure he sounds like a swell guy, but what’s he going to contribute on the ball field, a .255 avg and decent defense? Yippee.
You got me, JamesSC ;-)
Since we’re sizing up the relative intelligence of those of different political persuasions, I’ll just say that when it comes to intelligence, my impression is that conservatives tend to be either very very dumb or very very smart, whereas progressives tend to be in the middle. I’m not sure which wing Super T is on.
Yahoo has an article saying Arod is going to slither back to the Yankees for 10 yrs @ $27.5m/yr. didnt his previous contract call for $25.0m/yr for several yrs ? the big fuss was about adding a few extra years at an additional $2.5m/yr ? what a greedy #$%^ ! he & the bombers deserve one another. A few postings asked about better options than Paulie & Castillo ? Torrealbo at 3/$15.0m is definitely a mistake. Too long, too much money. It’s nice to get younger and hopefully stronger defensively, but Ramon Hernandez or Paulino are better options. Paulino is putting up 55 rbis in approx 475 ab’s. I believe he is mid to late 20’s. Definitely time to improve, which you cannot expect from Paulie. Castillo has lost his range, stealing ability & as many have pointed out, is a singles hitter with many infield hits. One option no one has mentioned this off season is Mark Loretta. He still hits, but I don’t see the sense in stockpiling more 37 yr olds. Give Rubie & Anderson a chance already. Assuming Carlos D rebounds offensively, we dont need an offensive stud at 2b. Gotay was a nice surprise at the plate last year. He is not going to suddenly become a gold glover by riding the pine. Anderson can be a late innings defensive sub if necessary.
Mark Loretta’s OPS and OPS+ last 3 years, from 2005: 707 (94), 706 (80), 724 (89)
Castillo’s OPS and OPS+ last 3 years, from 2005: 765 (108), 728 (91), 721 (93)
Yeah, he still hits. Hits like Castillo.
No more political comments, please.
I think Yorvit vs Paulie comes down to age and length of contract. If Paulie wanted a 1 or 2 year deal for similar money as Yorvit I think he gets signed. I think he was looking for a 3 or 4 year deal in the 6-8 Mil range though and I don’t think PLD made much sense there. I think Ramon would be a nice deal, but Yorvit only costs money (although Omar clearly paid a premium to get the deal done quickly and to eliminate any chance of not getting him).
I do expect Omar to make a fairly significant trade in the next few weeks. And that is what will define this off season, not PLD vs Yorvit. Omar hits a HR in the trade, and we have a big success, he flops on the trade and disaster strikes.
PS. I don’t think PLD will actually GET 3-4 years 6-8 mil, but with his talk about “retiring” as a Met, I think that is what he was looking for. Could Omar have waited him out to get him on a 2 year deal with maybe an option for 3? Possibly. But I think Omar is expecting Yorvit to improve during the next 3 years where with PLD I think a decline in each year is to be expected.