One of the best writers in the city, Tim Marchman covers baseball for The New York Sun. Last week, he was generous enough to sit down and answer some questions for MetsGeek about sportswriting, The Collapse, and his opinions on the team as the offseason begins.

MetsGeek: You seem to be one of the few writers in the city with an understanding of sabermetrics. In fact, the Sun seems to be particularly progressive in this regard. Was this a conscious effort, or just the way things turned out?

Tim Marchman: Every baseball writer understands sabermetrics, even if they’re putting on some ridiculous shtick that involves pretending they don’t. It’s not complicated stuff. One also shouldn’t forget that Dan Rosenheck, Alan Schwarz, Ben McGrath and Allen Barra, among others, do not feel the need to put on a ridiculous shtick.

The Sun’s sports desk was started as a blank slate by young guys running a lean operation at a start-up paper who didn’t want to run the same stuff the other papers were running, so it was a natural thing to set a direction and stick with it. It’s an excellent page and I’m glad to be a small part of it.

MetsGeek: Who did you root for growing up? Has your fandom evolved (or perhaps evaporated) since you started covering the sport?

Tim Marchman: I grew up in Richmond Hill, and I was eight in 1986, so of course I was a Mets fan. The whole cynical sportswriter bit is a giant scam. Someone is going to pay me to attend the Caribbean Series. Baseball is fucking great. When I start disliking it I’ll get another job.

MetsGeek: What sort of impact will The Collapse have on the organization as a whole? Do you think the ownership, front office, or coaching staff will change their attitudes toward the team in a fundamental way?

Tim Marchman: Not directly, because no one would get to where Omar Minaya or Rick Peterson are without having that weird (but valuable!) gene that makes you somewhat blithe about your own failures. I actually think the biggest potential problem is that it won’t change anyone’s attitude enough. When you’re focused on staying positive it can be easy to forget that there are things you shouldn’t be positive about.

The team has lost so much credibility that this could, in itself, lead to asinine moves. A few months ago everyone knew the team needed a reliever, but Minaya was able to say that he wasn’t paying top dollar for someone else’s garbage and reliably loudmouthed types shut up about it. They won’t shut up the next time he says as much, and moron pressure is a deadly and powerful force.

And don’t forget that the team is run by the Wilpon family, which has a long history of buying crap they don’t need whenever something goes wrong and throwing money at problems to make them go away. This is what rich people do. Sadly, these rich people hire bad pitchers rather than tricking out tacky vintage cars or buying bad art.

MetsGeek: Considering the way the season ended, everyone seems to have their own idea of how to ‘fix’ the Mets for 2008 and beyond. You’re the GM: knowing this team and its fanbase, how do you address this team’s needs for next year while ensuring they will remain competitive for years to come?

Tim Marchman: I make references to a mysterious secret plan, avoid doing anything obviously stupid, fire or beat up anyone who suggests moving David Wright to second base within my range of hearing, bring in Randy Couture to give motivational speeches, sign a lot of pitchers who might be useful, and don’t even bother looking for a long-term catcher or second baseman. The rest of the team will be good enough to carry vaguely adequate players at those positions, which would be worth doing to avoid ending up with five years of David Eckstein or what have you.

Meanwhile I would be working at my mysterious secret plan, which would involve offering Florida whatever it wanted for Miguel Cabrera, who is 24 and will be more valuable over the next five years than all the players the Mets would trade for him put together.

MetsGeek: Many have been critical of Willie Randolph this past season, particularly with regard to his bullpen management. In your opinion, how much of the blame really falls on Willie’s shoulders?

Tim Marchman: I don’t know how much you can blame someone for not being a different person. He kept doing the same stupid things over and over again, like putting Guillermo Mota and Brian Lawrence in baseball games, but he did things like that last year and did fine. He’s astonishingly uninventive, and he won’t make his team better than its talent, but most managers are no different, and he actually does a lot of things well. I don’t know how much credit he should get for the way Reyes and Wright have developed, for instance, but the answer isn’t “none.”

MetsGeek: Towards the end of the season, you were a little critical of the Mets’ bullpen, suggesting they had the wrong personnel. Have any ideas on how the team should go about rectifying it, given the volatility of relief pitching?

Tim Marchman: I’m not sure that relievers are as volatile as they’re made out to be. Their earned run averages are volatile because they don’t pitch many innings, but I can’t recall ever seeing any real proof that their actual performance is especially unpredictable. (Shoot me an e-mail if you have some!)

Generally I think teams should look at guys with wonky arms and Japanese relievers. Kerry Wood might not be able to pitch on back-to-back days, for instance, but no one should really care. If you carry twelve pitchers you should be able to accommodate a quirky schedule or two. And the Japanese relievers who have done well here have mostly been second- and third-tier pitchers in Japan. There are a lot of reasons for this, but it means that a team that does its homework can find players other teams aren’t even really looking at.

MetsGeek: Mets fans seem to be down on Mike Pelfrey after a disappointing season. Where do you think his future lies? As a key contributor of the Mets’ rotation? Or perhaps in the bullpen? On another team?

Tim Marchman: Personally, I think that if he was going to pick up secondary pitches good enough to make him a starter, he’d have done so by now, but when a guy is drafted ninth overall he’ll be given every opportunity to make it in the rotation for various good reasons. He has a really vicious fastball and he’s a big, strong guy, so I think he could be incredible throwing two innings every time out, but I also expect he’ll get at least another half-season as a starter before anyone starts thinking about it seriously, which is a shame. I understand why no one wants to turn a 23-year-old who signed his first contract last year into a career reliever; I don’t understand why anyone thinks that giving a young pitcher a year or two in the bullpen is consigning him to the bullpen for life.

MetsGeek: Before the season, many were predicting Jose Reyes to have an MVP-caliber year. However, after a great April, Jose didn’t quite fulfill the promise he showed last season. What happened? Does he right the ship?

Tim Marchman: Nothing really needs to be righted, and I hope people don’t miss out on how much he grew this year. Reyes walked half again as much as last year and struck out once every five at-bats, which is about half the league average. Given this and his speed, I think he’ll start hitting for much higher batting averages starting next year, high enough that it won’t really matter if his homerun power doesn’t come back. He also really improved his defense and stayed healthy for another full year. Even the wretched September will be a good thing if it keeps everyone mindful of not running him into the ground over the summer.

MetsGeek: How much turnover do you think we’ll see this offseason? Are we looking at major changes, or more minor moves?

Tim Marchman: There isn’t really any way to turn over the roster, and doing something like signing a third baseman would be ridiculously stupid, so there will mainly be minor moves, since, Collapse or no, this Mets regime has avoided making ridiculously stupid moves. Minor moves can really add up to good things, though.

MetsGeek: Do you expect the National League to “catch up” to the American League any time soon, or will the Mets be able to continue to throw out possible playoff teams by default just with the left side of the infield and Beltran?

Tim Marchman: The National League won’t catch up any time soon because the Mets won’t play the Yankees, the Cubs won’t play the Red Sox, and the good young teams in the American League are as good as or better than the good young teams in the National League. Even so, I don’t think the Mets will be able to scrape by on their looks and charm. The Phillies’ core is at least equal to theirs, and the West has four teams that could win the East, so the wild card is not to be counted on.

MetsGeek: There are a number of players expected to come over from Japan this offseason. After losing out on Matsuzaka last year, do you expect them to be big players in this year’s Japanese market?

Tim Marchman: Kaz Matsui may have put an end to the days of big players, but there are plenty of bargains to be had. It’s hard to predict what the better players will do, so they may be better off staying away from the big name.

MetsGeek: All right, time for a lightning round. Where will the following players be suiting up in 2007: A-Rod? Milledge? Glavine? Lo Duca? Rowand? Eckstein?

Tim Marchman: Los Angeles of Anaheim (hopefully for Mike Veeck), New York Mets, Atlanta, New York Mets, Bridgeport, St. Louis.

MetsGeek: Final Question: What’s the opening day lineup?

Tim Marchman: Reyes/Castillo/Wright/Beltran/Delgado/Alou/Lo Duca/Milledge/Martinez. Sexy!