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October 31, 2007
Counterpoint: The Argument against A-Rod
Before I begin, a quick point: judging just by the site’s name, all of the readers and commenters here are analytical, thoughtful people. It is normal and healthy for analytical, thoughtful people to disagree, and I think that’s why there’s been such a good discussion going on in yesterday’s comments. I worry that the analytical community sometimes faces the stigma of homogeneity, a sort of, “Oh, this is what the numbers say, so everyone agrees.” However, it’s not usually that open-and-shut, and I’m always happy to see lively debate. Anyway, in this particular rendition of “point/counterpoint,” I hope that we do a good job making strong cases for each side. Mr. Peterson certainly did his part, with his excellent piece on signing Alex Rodriguez; I’ll try to do the same. As much as I love A-Rod the player, I would rather the Mets not pursue him. Before I begin, I would like to mention a few things that this column will not have: - I will not discuss A-Rod’s “clutchness” and “ability to hit in the playoffs.” I don’t know whether or not A-Rod has a particular glitch that prevents him from hitting in the playoffs. But I think that the Michael Wilbon-esque bottom-line approach to evaluating A-Rod’s Yankee tenure (zero championships) is foolish. The Yankees didn’t lose the ALDS because of A-Rod; they lost it because of Chien-Ming Wang. And bugs. :) - I will not discuss the lack of class A-Rod, Boras, the Yankees, or whoever leaked the story showed by releasing the fact that A-Rod had opted out towards the end of a competitive Game 4 of the World Series. - I will not discuss A-Rod’s rumored affair, or his annoyed wife, or his “feud” with Derek Jeter. I just don’t care that much. The case against signing A-Rod begins and ends with David Wright. Wright said he would switch positions to accommodate A-Rod, and that’s admirable. But I think the Mets are underrating what they have in Wright. Wright isn’t just a good defensive player. He is an exceptional defensive player at third base. He charges the ball extraordinarily well, and he has extremely quick reflexes at third base. He has become a master at charging bunts in sacrificing situations. He handles his glove well, with occasional mistakes. Wright’s one flaw, defensively, is his throwing accuracy. He has a very strong arm, but he often makes bad throws to first base. Statistically, Wright ranked fifth in the NL in zone rating (courtesy of The Hardball Times), behind Pedro Feliz, Scott Rolen, Ryan Zimmerman, and Aramis Ramirez. But more impressive than that was the “OOZ” list (plays out of your assigned zone). Wright didn’t just lead the league in plays out of his zone; he blew away the competition. I prorated plays “out of zone” to 150 games per NL third baseman and looked at the players who fielded the most innings at third for each NL team. I also added A-Rod. Player Team OOZ David Wright NYM 83.8 Chipper Jones ATL 71.3 Pedro Feliz SFG 68.6 Ryan Zimmerman WAS 67.0 Scott Rolen STL 56.3 Morgan Ensberg HOU 54.9 Miguel Cabrera FLA 51.5 Nomar Garciaparra LAD 49.6 Mark Reynolds ARI 48.1 Alex Rodriguez NYY 47.7 Aramis Ramirez CHC 45.8 Jose Bautista PIT 45.7 Edwin Encarnacion CIN 45.1 Kevin Kouzmanoff SDP 42.8 Garrett Atkins COL 40.9 Ryan Braun MIL 30.0 Impressive, right? Wright blows away the field. But wait, there’s more: Team GB% COL 46% ATL 45% LAN 45% SDP 45% HOU 44% PIT 44% ARI 43% PHI 43% STL 43% SFG 42% CHN 41% FLA 41% MIL 41% CIN 40% NYN 40% WAS 39% The Mets’ staff generated a ton of flyballs. So, Wright made a bunch of plays out of his zone, despite a staff consisting of mostly flyball hurlers. So, fewer opportunities, more plays. (Note: I’m honestly not sure how many of the out of zone plays are pop-ups.) In other words, Wright’s really good at third base. And his skills would translate if he switched positions. Everything Wright does at third, he could do at first, and he wouldn’t have to test his sometimes-erratic arm. A perfect fit, right? Except in one very important way: Richie Sexson 80 Derrek Lee 77 Ryan Howard 76 Sean Casey 76 Justin Morneau 76 Adam LaRoche 75 Albert Pujols 75 Carlos Delgado 75 Casey Kotchman 75 Todd Helton 74 Adrian Gonzalez 74 Dmitri Young 74 Conor Jackson 74 Paul Konerko 74 Lyle Overbay 74 Carlos Pena 74 Ryan Garko 74 Lance Berkman 73 Kevin Youkilis 73 Prince Fielder 72 David Wright 72 Wright would be dead-last, among all qualifiers, in a critical category for first basemen: height. That’s the height in inches of every qualifying first baseman from 2007, plus David Wright. Height is key for a first baseman; it can help bring in high throws while allowing him to keep his foot on the bag while reaching for them. It also makes for a larger target. Wright is just not built for the position. Second base, on the other hand, is a rangey position, more than a reflex position. And Wright wouldn’t get to charge home plate, a play at which he is so proficient. It’s also one of the most taxing positions on the diamond; very few second basemen last for a long time. We don’t know how well Wright would respond to a position change, particularly at second base. He might get leveled with a takeout slide, something that may be a difficult technique for a converted third baseman to learn, causing him to face a career of recurring leg or knee injuries or something along those lines. Or he might not. But Wright is far too valuable to take that risk. He’s locked up for five more years, and it’s just not worth experimenting like that with a known quantity, especially one who plays his current position so well to begin with. So, to me, moving Wright off of third, even for a year, is not an option. And, furthermore, I’m not convinced that the Mets would move Wright back to third after a year. A-Rod, to me, is the perfect first baseman of the future, but Delgado’s entrenched there now, and I don’t know if the Mets would use A-Rod that way, even if they did bring him in. The Mets actually have a really good thing going on the left side of their infield. Sadly, A-Rod doesn’t fit into that, unless you could persuade him to move to left field or dump Delgado. I strongly doubt both things. Thus, you would be spending a lot of money and a lot of years (my A-Rod contract guess: nine years, $270 million or so) on a risky proposition with the potential for a serious downturn in production, all the while putting square pegs into round holes. Yeah, you’d score a lot more runs. But I don’t know if the risks are worth that extra production. I think the only way you could convince me that the Mets need to make a push for A-Rod would be if the Phillies or Braves were in position to land him in the Mets’ absence. But until then, count me off the bandwagon. Dan is a student who writes for MetsGeek every Wednesday. He welcomes feedback at dscotto10@gmail.com. 98 Responses to “Counterpoint: The Argument against A-Rod”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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(4 out of 5)
This may get me laughed right off this blog, but wasn’t A-Rod once a shortstop? Wasn’t part of the problem with him and the Yankees the fact that he got shuffled over to 3rd? Does he prefer to play 3rd now?
Of course, that presents us with other unattractive options. You could put him at second, which he’s never played before and which, as you say, would wear him out. Or you could put him at short and move Jose to 2nd, which we’ve done before and, well, it sure didn’t seem to work out last time.
Maybe out of sympathy for what happened this year, the league will just let us use a DH.
The best reason to get ARod is, IMO, “what if he goes somewhere else?
The Braves have openly expressed their disdain for him and have their Middle infielders locked for a number of years.
The Phillies, however, could really use a 3B…Can they afford him?
The Cubs could definitely upgrade at short…
But for those who don’t think ARod’s salary will be a problem, note that just by signing ARod, the Phillies would go from having the 14th in the majors to 3rd, ahead of the Mets.
Be careful what you wish for.
Just a point,
THT’s R(evisesd) Z(one) R(ating) really like Wright. Converted into runs they have him at 24 runs above average defensively. RZR’s underlying data is supplied by BIS.
John Dewan’s plus minus had Wright at +15. The underlying data for plus minus is supplied by BIS.
However, Zone Rating is less impressed with Wright. Converted into runs, Zone Rating has Wright at +1 run above average defensively. Zone rating’s underlying data is supplied by STATS.
By MGL’s UZR the best 3b in the NL as:
Feliz +28
Rolen +24
Ramirez +6
UZR’s underlying dataset is supplied by STATS.
Basically, the BIS based metrics love Wright, the STATS based metrics, not as much.
Height is the reason Wright can’t play first? Seriously? Keith Hernandez and Don Mattingly are only 6′, and I seem to remember them both being pretty good defenders.
Another interesting article; I must admit I had no idea about David’s range & out of zone play making abilities. Those #’s will hopefully convince all those who think moving David to 2nd is no big deal. To the best of my knowledge, there has never been a fulltime MLB big bulky 2b; Cal & Alex are the only bulky SS’s I can think of. I think it’s crazy to consider moving David or Alex to 2b; besides the drop in defense, the risk of injury is way too great. Losing either one of those two to injury at 2b would be a nightmare & a lightning rod for criticism. If Alex wants to be a Met, let him play either 1b or LF. Worst case scenario is not being able to move Carlos & we have a very high payroll for the 1st yr of Alex. Maybe Arod agrees to defer some of the 1st year money, or maybe he decides he can feed his family on just a $25.0m salary….
No mention of either Wright or ARod in the Outfield?
His height at first base? Good point about Hernandez.. Wright is 2 inches shorter than the median height.. Does this REALLY make a difference in the big picture.
You anti-arod people are going to have to come up with something better.
And OOZ? any stat that puts Miguel Cabrera in the top 10 defensively is questionable. My sense is the large discrepancy is related to Pop Ups and Wrights speed.. which would play well in the outfield and as well at first base. How it relates to Cabrera who is a statue out there is unexplainable
Hall of Fame players have switched positions without a large effect. You have the list.. these players are athletes.. its not a big issue.
What Arod adds offensively far outstrips a zone rating or OOZ which doesn’t translate directly into Wins.
The case gets better every day.
Reyes is a brilliant Gold Glove caliber SS. Moving him to second base should not even be discussed. A-Rod is a lot bigger and older than he was in his mid-20s, I would wager that he would have a hard time even being a league average defensive SS at this point in his career.
If the Mets are serious about getting A-Rod, the way to shuffle the infield around is simple: Trade Delgado to an AL team like the Angels. Move A-Rod to first.
Ha, this was my Tim McCarver statement of the day. *bows*
By older I meant more beat up and not as quick reflexively.
I would like to have arod (even with his baggage) on the team. I’m not sure i want him for 300mil. 10 years seems like a lot for a 32 yo.
i think the baggage is the biggest obstacles for the wilpons and a lot of fans to hurdle.
as for david, he has said he would move to get him here. yes, david sometimes talks too much and seems to bend over backwords to be nice, but i take him at his word. for the good of the team he would move. he must feel he could play other positions.
what position did he play when he played with zimmerman?
Zimmerman played second base on those teams. He was younger than the other guys. Wright played third, BJ Upton played short, and Zimmerman played second base.
Yeah, that AAU team was pretty good.
The only argument to make against A-Rod is monetary. Can the Mets add a $30 million (at least) salary to the long term deals still on the books (keeping in mind that Pedro, Delgado, El Duque, et. al. will have to be replaced or resigned within the couple of years) and still have enough payroll flexibility to field a decent team around A-Rod, Wright, Reyes and Beltran.
Really, with their SNY revenue and a new stadium opening up in ‘09, the money is there, it is just a matter of Wilpon opening up the checkbook. Is he willing to spend $150 million or so on payroll? That remains to be seen.
thanks danny, i knew there was nother third basemen in the mix, but couldnt remember his name.
Actually Danny, I thought the bigger/older comment was more Joe Morgan, than Tim MCarver….but we got the gist. Not a problem!
I was listening to Stark on Mike and Mike this morning and one of them suggested that ARod is now the most universally disliked athlete in all of sports. Whether or not that’s true, he is at least in the conversation. Why would we want the face of our franchise for the next 10 years to be someone who nobody can stand? It will be much more fun to watch Wright and Reyes lead the Mets to the WS than it would be to watch ARod do it.
I know he’s a great player, and if we had a crappy team that needed ARod to have a chance to be competitive, I could probably deal with it. But we were 1 game away from the WS in 2006 without ARod. We were 1 game away from the playoffs this year without ARod. We don’t need ARod. We need a dependable starting pitcher and a dominant set-up man/middle reliever.
Well, one argument is monetary; the other is monetary related to age. Will ARod be worth $26M/yr (I don’t really think he’ll be getting more than that) when he is 38 yrs old?
Yet another argument is positional. We have a shortstop and 3rd Baseman. We could put ARod at 2nd.
If we got ARod for a good price and put him at 2nd, I guess you can’t refuse it. Hold your nose and do it.
Good price = $25M/yr for 5 yrs or less
Ha, shea, I couldn’t remember which awesome color analyst I was channeling…
The positional argument is not important. A-Rod is the best offensive player in the game today. Excluding monetary considerations, if you can add him to your lineup, you do it. It’s a no-brainer. If someone has to change positions, so be it, that can be worked out. Wright, A-Rod and Reyes are all exceptional athletes, if it came down to it I’m sure they could figure out a way to fit them all in the same lineup.
Will he be worth the money in 6 or 7 years? He’s shown no decline in his production so far. As a matter of fact, at 32 he just had the best season of his career (arguably, one of the best seasons ever). I suppose there’s always the possibility of him pulling an Alomar or Delgado and having his production dropping off a cliff, but it seems unlikely, based on his work ethic and injury history.
The question comes down to will ownership fork over the kind of money he’s looking for and still be willing to spend enough elsewhere to field a championship caliber team.
Personally, I think signing him is a bad idea. There’s no way Wilpon adds A-Rod to the payroll without cutting back somewhere else, and frankly, right now the Mets don’t have enough young players making below market salaries to offset the cutbacks.
The positional argument is absolutely important. Defense is an important consideration.
I don’t really understand the defensive stats, so I can’t comment on them. My eyes tell me that Wright is not a great defender, principally because of his wild throwing, but also because of his knack for committing errors or mental mistakes in big moments — think, for example, about that double play opportunity where all he had to do was step on third base, but instead went for the tag and the runner was safe. My impression from observation, and it won’t be reflected in the stats, is that in big spots on defense, he plays tense and that results in “high leverage” errors (usually of the throwing variety). I’m not sure if there are many Met fans out there who, in a big spot on defense, would (if they could) choose for a ground ball to be hit to Wright. I think we’d opt for anybody else on the infield, frankly.
The drop off in defense (if any) would be more than made up by the added offense.
For arguments sake, let’s say A-Rod plays third and Wright moves to first (Delgado get traded) and I’ll even concede that Wright is better than A-Rod defensively.
In my little fantasy world, you’d have a drop-off in defense at third (how much is debatable) and a huge upgrade at first (I don’t think anyone in their right mind would argue that Wright wouldn’t be ridiculously better than Delgado). So that’s at worst a wash if not an upgrade defensively. So even if the defensive aspect is a wash, for all intents an purposes, you’re replacing Delgado’s 24 HR and 741 OPS with A-Rod’s 54 HR and 1067 OPS. That’s not a particularly difficult choice in my book.
Once you get into the financial aspects, it’s a different story, but there is absolutely no on field reason that they shouldn’t sign him. (Again, for the record, I think Wilpon is too cheap to make it worth it to sign him, though)
The defensive aspect might be a wash in the specific scenario that you propose, but there are various defensive alignments that could arise from signing A-Rod.
So the positional argument is relevant and important.
Ok, so in which prospective alignment is the drop off in defense so dramatic that the offensive upgrade A-Rod would provide would not offset it? Other than something ridiculous like moving Reyes to catcher or Delgado to the outfield, I can’t think of any. The players we’re talking about moving (A-Rod, Reyes and Wright) are all exceptional athletes, even amongst their peers. Reyes has already proved he can play second competently, A-Rod has changed positions once successfully, already. I mean, come on, you really think that moving one of those three is going to completely screw up the team defensively? I’m sure any one of them could play in the outfield or at first without embarrassing himself.
I would think he’d want to go back to workin for Sweet Lou in Chicago. We don’t need him. The reason we didn’t get him last time, from what I understand, was that he wanted a bigger office for his business entourage than Mike Piazza had. Do we need that on this team? It’s bad enough Rickey Henderson needs a knock in the head for playing cards and fostering a lack-of-intensity mantra in the clubhouse. And with all of the press attention the Mets will face all year regarding their “historic collapse” I think it’s one more unnecessary distraction. Let him go to Chicago. He never wanted to be in NY anyway.
One more note - aren’t we tired of the Yankees sloppy-seconds? The fewer associations we have with the bums from the Bronx, to me, the better. It’s bad enough one-third of our uniform is dedicated to them, do we need anymore of their malignant influence.
Good riddance to A-Rod. Or should we call him Nim-Rod for walking away from $250m?
The positional argument is not just about defensive metrics. It’s also about the fact that Reyes and Wright play shortstop and third base for this team, and that someone will have to be uprooted. This is not unimportant.
So it’s not about defense, it’s about not hurting Wright’s or Reyes’s feelings? Dude, their professionals. Wright has already offered to move. There is no compelling on-field reason not to sign him. The off-field stuff is another story.
And the off-field stuff is wholly irrelevant, is that what you are saying?
That is a bit simplistic.
No the off-field stuff (i.e. money) is why they shouldn’t sign him. The point I’m trying to make is, if you going to make a case not to bring him in don’t come with defense and Wright is too short to play first and I don’t think they should hurt Jose’s feelings again. Those are not valid reasons.
I think asking Wright to move defensive positions for 2 years in a row if the Mets signed A-Rod and didn’t trade Delgado would be ridiculous, and would probably impact his hitting in some way.
These are, in fact, human beings playing the games. And there is extra work and adjustments to be made when you are switching to a defensive position that you have never played before in your life, and it could absolutely impact your offensive production.
And moving Reyes from SS to accommodate A-Rod would absolutely tangibly hurt the defensive infield.
It’s not irrelevant.
I agree with this, not only for the reason Danny stated above, but for symbolic reasons. A-Rod would be coming here to 1/25 not THE GUY who is going to be the only star of the team. Moving Wright or Reyes to open a left side spot of A-Rod sends a bad message to A-Rod IMO.
Just throwing this out there. I keep hearing that AROD is the best hitter in the game. This is simply not true. Did he have the best season last year, yes. But over his career. I disagree. Below is OPS+ of active players. AROD is tied for 7th. I realize looking at a long term contract there is an age component and AROD is a good fielder & baserunner. But vladdy 5 tooled as well, and pujols is a great defender. Even so Arod is Elite, but there are other players around who are comparable with the bat.
Barry Bonds* (42) 182
Albert Pujols (27) 167
Frank Thomas (39) 157
Manny Ramirez (35) 154
Jim Thome* (36) 150
Vladimir Guerrero (31) 148
Jason Giambi* (36) 147
Alex Rodriguez (31) 147
Lance Berkman# (31) 146
Miguel Cabrera (24) 143
Todd Helton* (33) 143
Chipper Jones# (35) 143
Second base, on the other hand, is a rangey position, more than a reflex position. And Wright wouldn’t get to charge home plate, a play at which he is so proficient. It’s also one of the most taxing positions on the diamond; very few second basemen last for a long time.
It’s my understanding that second and third are pretty close together on the defensive spectrum, BUT the positions emphasize different skills, like you said. This means that it’s hard to predict how Wright, a very good defensive third baseman, would respond to a position change to second base. But, if anything, I would think that his quality 3B play is a solid indicator that he would do well at second, too. His strengths are range and reflexes, his weakness is an inaccurate arm. It seems that second base caters to his strengths and deemphasizes his weakness.
I’m interested in this claim that few 2B last very long. It would be my guess that 2B/SS type players last longer than 1B/OF/DH types. Am I wrong? Also, do 2B/SS suffer more injuries than other types of players? It seems to me that outfielders and pitchers are injured more than anyone else, and the “iron man” types are usually infielders.
The money argument doesnt hold water. He clearly pays for himself in added revenue to the network and potential playoff success..
And the possibility of Arod wearing a MEts uni when he breaks Bond’s tainted record and potentially knocks gamblin’ Pete Rose off his hit pedastal —
Do you watch all these commercials featuring Hank Aaron and Mickey Mantle in Braves and Yank uniforms respectively? these are the things that add significant value to an organization in the long term.
But this is so hard to quantify. The Mets are already a playoff caliber and highly visible franchise. A-Rod does not get sole financial credit for additional revenue that making the playoffs would bring in. A-Rod doesn’t even get full financial credit for every Mets A-Rod jersey the team might sell should he come here. People have a limited number of jerseys they can afford, so maybe they just bought a Rodriguez jersey instead of a Milledge jersey. It’s impossible to quantify.
Don’t fall for Boras’ trap. A-Rod would generate some extra revenue, no doubt about it, but it’s nearly impossible to quantify it.
I agree with tm that the positional question not a real impediment to signing ARod. Sure it’s a potential question that needs to be resolved if ARod is aquired, but the net effect on the defense is minimal (positive or negative) in comparison to the offensive upgrade that occurs. I think the Mets should absolutely look at trying to sign him. When you have the opportunity to get the best player in the game, it’d be foolish to not at least try.
That said, I think there is a valid arugment that the length of contract that ARod is asking for could turn into a potential albatross towards the end. Also because of the possibility that ARod might not want to play in NY any longer, his asking price might be higher for the Mets than some other places.
All the “character issues” and other stuff that Dan mentioned (by saying he wouldn’t mention…clever) are perception stuff that isn’t important. Ted Williams was ornery and greatly disliked but he was still one of the four or five best hitters ever to play the game. Manny Ramirez was called a malcontent and a clubhouse cancer before he started winning in Boston, now he’s just Manny being Manny. The character stuff only matters if you decide it matters, and even then winning ballgames colors perception.
Listen, I’m absolutely not arguing that they should sign A-Rod. That being said, if they were to do so, there is no (realistic) defensive alignment that they could put on the field that would be so horrible that the added offense wouldn’t make up for it. If Wright moves to first or right, they’re at worst breaking even defensively. Yes, moving Reyes would be a downgrade at short, but an upgrade at second and the creation of a ridiculously good offensive middle infield.
Again, I don’t think they should sign him, but only because of the cost. Really just the percentage of the payroll he would take up than the actual dollars (hell, it’s not my money), because I really can’t see Wilpon increasing the payroll by $30 mil or so.
The question is does all that extra revenue get re-invested in the team or do Freddy and Jeff just pocket it?
tm, I agree it’s not a huge issue. I read it like you were dismissing its relevance in any way. It’s a consideration that the Mets MUST deal with.
It’s not a deal-breaker, or a sign that they should absolutely stay away or anything like that, I agree with you.
Yeah, the three of us agree!
It’s not irrelevant, but it’s definitely something that requires less consideration than it did for the Piazza/Hundley fiasco.
Poor Todd. Watching try to track flyballs to leftfield was just brutal to watch. He didn’t deserve that fate.
As we saw last year.. playoff caliber doesnt get you in. THE SNY Network - which Fred owns a significant chuck - will reap major major $$$ off a 5 year run of wildly successful baseball.
YES is worth 3.5 B Today. Now I know its not the same but its a compelling case for how putting a dominant team on the field creates value in more ways that filling seats.
Given the growth of MLB revenue and the increase of the salary cap to 167 M in the next few years the payroll HAS TO and WILL Expand. All our NL competition will be improving.. if we “Stand pat” and add a reliever or a marginal starter it isn’t going to help our succcess.
And dont bring up Santana because the mets dont have the chips to land a top flight A+ Starter unless they add an asset like AROD to free up the chips and make a move at a Top flight starter.
He was a train wreck out there. Every time a ball went into left I felt bad for him.
Just throwing this out there. I keep hearing that AROD is the best hitter in the game. This is simply not true.
People usually say that A-Rod is the best player in the game, not the best hitter. Most of the guys on that list are first basemen, designated hitters or outfielders. A-Rod is a SS (debatable) and a 3B.
On that list, almost everyone above A-Rod is over 35, making them not a desirable long-term acquisition. The exceptions are Pujols and Guerrero. Pujols is almost certainly a better hitter than A-Rod, but A-Rod is the better all-around player. We couldn’t be arguing about whether Pujols should play SS, 2B, 3B, LF or 1B; he can only play one position (though he plays it well). That positional flexibility makes A-Rod a better player; the fact that he plays 3B is reflected in the sabermetric counting stats like VORP and WARP, because the “replacement” third baseman is worse than the “replacement” first baseman.
Then there’s Guerrero. He’s awesome, too, but again- A-Rod is the better all-around player. He has more speed, and again- plays infield, not outfield.
And you still can’t quantify what percentage of financial credit A-Rod would deserve for the Mets making the playoffs the next 5 years in a row.
You’re telling me that in 2011, when A-Rod is 37 and declining and making $30 million a year, that he will deserve the lion’s share of the credit over an in their prime David Wright ($14M) and Jose Reyes ($11M)?
That’s right, at age 37, A-Rod will be making $5 million more than Reyes and Wright COMBINED.
The financial obligation to A-Rod will be an enormous risk.
Actually, there’s no guarantee that revenues will increase astronomically. Many economists are predicting a recession within the next few years. Besides which, there’s no evidence that Wilpon will spend all the extra money he could potentially make.
The TEAM
It has been floated that the Mets lost 15 milion in revenue this year by NOT making the playoffs… Adding a talent like Arod clearly makes the Mets THE dominant team in the NL baring major injury and a virtual lock for the playoffs.Doing nothing means you roll the dice. getting the best players avaialble clearly gives you a better chance to compete and make the show./
THE NETWORK
How much do you think the 1996 - 2001 Run of the Yankees added to their Franchise? the YES Network which was launched at a ZERO Valuation in 2002 (year after their run) and is now a 3.5 BILLION Dollar enterprise.. Can SNY be worth 2 B in 5 years if the MEts go one a five year run of lets say 4 world series appearances? What’s it worth today? maybe 10 mil?
THE LEGACY
Having iconic players like Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle and Babe Ruth add to the mystique to a franchise and - while there is no way to put a $$ sign on it — would clearly add significantly to the intrinsic value of the Mets Franchise.
#30
Besides, the positional and age points that #43 has raised, there is also the issue of durability. Bonds, Thomas, Thome, Giambi, all have varying durability issues. You can’t be the better player, or even hitter, if you’re on the DL, or not in the lineup, because your knees need rest.
Danny - When Arod is 37 in all likelihood he’ll be approaching the ALL TIME Home Run Record.
What’s that worth?
Ask the San Francisco Giants who built a stadium and a fan base off a player who is MULTIPLE TIMES more hateable than ARod will EVER be .. AND is tainted by steroids and the STILL laid big $$
In 2011 the MLB luxury tax level will be 178 Million. At that level ARod’s 30 mil salary would be 16.5%
lets say in 2011 the mets are at 150 Mil payroll.. that would make Arod 20% which is comparable to Bond’s 18 mil salary on the Giants payroll..
If Wilpon will jack the payroll up to that level, then by all means, they should go ahead and sign him. If they’re going to sign him and then turn cheapskate and not want to pay anybody else (sort of how when Piazza was on the books they didn’t want to add other “superstars”), then it’s a mistake.
I think Danny’s point is that this is still speculation. There is no real way to accurately attribute how much added monetary value ARod adds to these dimensions. If they make the playoffs, it’s not *only* because of ARod, so you can’t attribute the added value only to him, the same goes for the TV valuation. There is no doubt that SNY and Citifield will add revenue to the Mets coffers, but it’s nigh impossible to apportion what value is added by an ARod signing.
Yes and no. It *can* add iconic value. But only if that player is identified as part intrinsic to the legacy of the franchise (eg-Willie Mays played for the Mets, but he’s not adding any franchise value because he’s a legend), . Jose Reyes and David Wright (and maybe Beltran too) have the opportunity to be intrinsicly linked to the franchise but I have doubts whether ARod ever gets that. It’s possible sure, but it’s also likely that ARod is remembered as a mercenary without a strong link to any club.
If we only lost 15 million by not making the playoffs, adding ARod for $30 million doesn’t sound like a very good deal to me. Even if we were guaratneed to make the playoffs every year of his contract, which we wouldn’t be.
Isn’t is possible to make the playoffs without him next year without spending the extra $30 million. Then we’d really be up.
You summed up my feelings exactly, SoCal.
YES was worth $0 in 2002 when it was formed?
oh lordy.
that is just not true and makes ZERO sense. The station had the broadcast rights to the skanks and it had value. Trust me.
Try using about $800M. that was the value of YES when it was formed.
and its worth $3B even now. not 3.5
and that’s a very rough calculation done by some bankers on what investors may pay for it now.
if fans want to have a mediocre sometimes competitive team that makes the playoffs one year and falls from contention the next and wallows around in the standings for a decade than that’s what you’ll get.
If you want to be a part of a dominant run of 4 or 5 years of out performance you HAVE TO Add the best players that you can WHEN YOU CAN>
Sitting around hoping for milledge to morph into a likeable version of gary sheffield is all nice but it doesnt get you to the show.
What have the Mets done since 2000? Its been 22 years since we won a WS. Last year we were the laughing stock of the league.
I guess some people are just content to root for an underdog and hope for the best year in and year out.
I’m not talking about spending 40% more on payroll that every other team like the Yanks.. Thats not the goal — But to say “I dont want to be like the Yankees” is disingenuous. — The only thing I want to emulate the Yankees is a 5 year WS run right now and of course ultimately 20 something World Championships.
resigning mediocre talent and hoping for the best aint gonna do it.
As per your responce John Peterson:
I understand what you are saying with VORP and WARP, I did not realize 3B was THAT much more valuable, then 1B or RF. And even so, is it THAT much greater to make him above and beyond the best All-Around player in the game? I figured with Pujols being a gold glove player now his VORP/WORP would help lower the GAP between the two players. I also thought Vladdy was nasty in the field as well which would help narrow there gap.
With that said I would have to argue that specific to the METS A-Rods “all-around” value would be negated because he would force players to play out of position. I think we could all agree that the best alignment would be AROD or DW (whoever does not play 3rd) playing LF or 1b. Having them either play at either position would mean that you are losing the WARP gained from their defensive prowess. So does it really make sense to get AROD and play either him or DW out of position, thus losing a large compenent of there WORP for the next 10 years? Or would the more prudent course be to simply get not get AROD, and pursue close to comperable hitters who already play 1b or LF? I would go for the latter.
PS What is a good site to get VORP/WARP if you don’t have a BP subscription?
You can get WARP for free on BP.
Just search for a player in the upper right then select the DT card option and it will have WARP on it.
VORP i dont remember where you can find that one. sorry.
Nobody wants to root for a mediocre team, the problem is ownership is happy with a very good team and probably won’t be willing to spend the extra money to put GREAT team on the field. I’m not saying they should go Steinbrenner crazy and sign everyone in sight, but I question whether they’d be willing to sign A-Rod this year and then lay out the money for a stud pitcher or two next year.
this have VORP for everyone i think. no search function though, sorry.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204031
You can get VORP numbers on the team pages at BP.
Actually Goldman Sachs says YES is worth “At least” 3 Billion Today. But it wouldn’t sell at that price.
Ill take your starting valuation of 800 mil. That was for Broadcast rights to the Yankees -which had just won 4 World series in 5 years and significantly expanded their fan base due to their recent successes.
What is SNY Worth today?
The basic facts is the only way to grab more fans in the Metro Area, the US and Globally is to Win. I know Yankee fans who were’nt even into baseball until the Yankees started their run. You all may say who cares about them.. but Fred and Jeffy do.. and the other Mets owners do.. and Omar does. . The only way to expand the fan base and VALUATIONS is to WIN.. The only way to win is to put the best product out on the field and perform far above the pack..
Putting Arod on this team WILL turn a borderline playoff team (we lost last year remember) into a dominant favorite to WIN>
true on 3 vs 3.5. it could be anywhere between 3 and 4B depending on the multiple used, my bad.
what is SNY worth today?
that’s a good question.
I dont think I’ve seen a valuation. I’ll take a peek around
If we can find a cash flow number for the network we can just calculate it ourselves.
WARP3 this and VORP that — do those stats calculate how the player affects the guys in front of or behind him in the lineup? What will Wright or Beltran hit with ARod behind him? What will Delgado hit with ARod in front of him?
Other Qs:
Where will the team power come from after Delgado is gone (I´m not saying Wright and Beltran and Milledge don´t have power, but they´re not the BigBopper type.)
Maybe being on the Mets will be the best thing for ARod. Isn´t it possible that he was uptight because of the corporate, tradition-heavy Yankee clubhouse, and that he´d relax and have fun on the Mets?
I would actually prefer to root for a team with a chance to win every year than a team that is expected to win every year and considers a season a failure if it doesn’t win the WS.
We had those kind of expectations this year and it just wasn’t that much fun.
I wouldnt think SNY Would be cash flow positive at this point — which is further reason to build the product (The Mets)
Their major investors were Comcast and Time Warner which dont even mention SNY in their filings.
Subscribers would be a good barometer at this point. IIRC YES extracted some serious fees from the cable and sat networks in 2002 / 2003.
I dont think SNY is getting paid for carraige at this point.. more reason to build the product.
I saw numbers that SNY was watched by 7000 homes out of 7.3 million in September this year which is just pitiful. Ad revenue - which I have some familiarity with - is based on packages with other sports related networks. No one is asking to buy into SNY other than a Mets game these days.
There is certainly value to be created.. how much is a guess..
Dave in Spain,
Obviously VORP / WARP doesn’t do that. Baseball Musings has a lineup tool that allows you to calculate how many runs a particular lineup will score.
pauliec84,
Most of the defensive metrics have Vlad as around average defensively. Revised Zone Rating had him at -8 runs, Zone Rating at +4 runs this year. UZR had him at -9 last year.
Pujols is indeed a great defender. ARod was at 96 VORP this year, Pujols 72, a 24 run difference. Last year, Pujols was 85, ARod 51. ARod is generally average or slightly below average defensively. UZR had Pujols at +14 runs this year defensively. RZR had him at +36! defensively, ZR at +15. So, adding defense, Pujols has a case as being better than ARod.
I’ve been saying to ARod exactly what he’s worth to us, which I’ve calculated to be around $16.5M (ARod’s WARP-Gotay’s WARP for 160 games)*$2M/win + Gotay’s salary = (11.1 - 3)*$2M +$0.3M = $16.5M/yr. (It tops out at $3M/win, ($24.6M)/yr.) This is a maximum value since ARod is coming off one of his best years and $3M/yr/WARP is high-end valuation.
A more reasonable number would be somewhere in between, say $20M/yr.
He is not worth more than that. He’s been proven not to single handedly up attendance, regardless of what Biggie Boras claims. He might raise merchandising revenues, but if he costs more than $20M/yr, the money would be better spent elsewhere (and it needn’t be spent this year).
I’ve also wondered why so few people entertain the idea of putting ARod at 2nd should he come, since DWright and Reyes are the faces of the franchise and both are probably liabilities at 2nd whereas ARod is neither.
rfloh- thanks for the link. I´ll check it out…
#67
IMO, you’re underestimating how much a win is worth in the current market. Nate Silver, in a post on BPro, after the Renteria trade, estimated Edgar Renteira as worth $15M-$20M.
#69
Possible, but $30M/yr over 5+ years is absurd for the Mets, because the Mets don’t have a spot for him. Unless they put ARod at 2B. Neither Reyes or DWright should be playing 2nd, and if ARod can’t either, then tough. We have to settle for the 2nd best left-infield in baseball. An all-star potential pitcher and a solid 1B or 2B in the next two years will cost that much and be more valuable than ARod.
ARod won’t WARP 11.1 each year for the next 5+ years. All of these folks who are screaming to pay him $300M seem to be forgetting this.
And btw, what happens when Wright is slumping at 2nd because of the switch and ARod is taking the blame and is getting booed at Shea? Or when a whole host of other potential problems come to be? No Mulligans on ARod; he’ll be unmoveable.
paulie, you are kidding me right?
I think we can all agree that Bonds and Pujols are easily in ARod’s class as a hitter and as a player in terms of what they bring to the game. Bonds obviously is no longer that player, while Pujols I think most people would choose over ARod today (although not 7 years ago ARod vs Pujols today). OPS+ is a nice stat, but if you can watch ARod as a player and not understand that he is a significant step forward as a player to most of that list than I am not sure what can be said for that.
I can understand the arguement that ARod’s premium is not worth the premium $$ versus those other players listed, but holding outside issues aside, there are few players in that list that compare to the value of ARod on a team.
As for ARod’s value, his value is whatever the team is willing to pay him, so long as the Mets sign him without breaking whatever their budget is to sign the players around him, then I could care less. But lets not make less of what ARod is by comparing him to players like Jones or Thome (who are (or at least were)) great players.
Biggie Boras — thats pretty funny.. I was always one to call ARod GAY-ROD and called him a scumb@g when he ran over Phillips in 2000.
As far as Boras.. I cursed his slimey ass last year when he ran held us up for Zito.. and went back to the yanks with the Beltran offer.
but hey.. a game is a game.. and if Arod and Boras make us a better team I could care less.. I’ll sleep with the devil to get to the World Series again.
Omar is worlds smarter than phillips ever will be and Freddy has the Dollars now to complete so WTF>.
let bygones be bygones. if he likes to wear makeup and screw she males who gives a crap.. as long as he mashes and bashes ill root for him.
Which in-house or free agent all-star pitcher, solid 1b and 2b are you referring to? Assuming that these theoretical players are out there *and* the Mets can get them, that’s three roster spots to provide the value that ARod would provide from 1. One of the many benefits ARod (and other superstars) is that they offer roster flexibility with those extra roster spots.
Who’s screaming to pay him 300M? But I digrees, I’m not saying he will produce a WARP3 that high, but even if he doesn’t, he’s a safe bet to produce a high WARP.
So long as we’re talking in pure hypotheticals, what happens when DW blossoms into a gold-glove second baseman, and the Mets have the HOF caliber players in their in-field for the next 5-7 years?
Of course there is huge risk in awarding a huge contract to ARod. Anytime a contract is given, some risk is assumed. It was a huge risk to sign Beltran, and we had no mulligans then either. Part and parcel of acquiring free agents.
Oh yeah, and assuming ARod is healthy, there is almost no situation where he’s “unmoveable”. The Mets might have to eat a huge portion of his salary (see Texas -> Yankee trade) but it’s possible.
#70
Eh, I’m not saying that the Mets should sign ARod, just that you’re underestimating the value of wins in the current market.
Your point about people booing is why I’m generally not in favour of signing him. For me, I would take him if he agrees not to play 3b or SS.
Just eyeballing his stats this year and last year, I would say that he would be worth $300M / 10, only if he can keep up his 2007 performance over the lifetime of the contract. If he performs like he did in 2006 over the lifetime of the contract, then probably something around $150M / 10.
All i was trying to illustart (sorry I can’t spell) with that OPS+ stat was that there are a lot of present day hitters who have been as/more productive at the plate as AROD.
I think people are looking at this year and thinking that is the extrapolation for the next 8 years.
His career lines avg for 162 games is 44 hr, .306/.389/.578
This is outstanding but we are not getting AROD 24-32, we would get AROD 32-40. There must be an anticipated decline.
I realize they are for the most part unattainable (although i have herd romers of fat cabrera on the block), I would take Pujols any day, and being that Cabrera is 8 years younger I would take him as well.
I think the point i am trying to make is that hitters close to arods caliber are avaliable at a price where you don’t have to pay the superstar premium.
Furthermore it is wins more then the presence of a superstar that maeks money for a team. So I don’t think it is valuable to degress into the old argument that arod will make the mets/sny so much more valuable. He will give us wins which will increase chances of winning/playoffs/world series which will genarte more money. But will he generate more wins then $30 million used elsewhere?
I think you overestimate the supply in the market. Cabrera might be available in 2010, but that’s assuming the Marlins don’t resign him or deal him to a team that will. Pujols is locked up by StL till 2011, iirc. Bonds is a worse media nightmare than ARod, and his knees are shot. Jim Thome, Jason Giambi and Frank Thomas is a DH. Manny Ramirez is under contract with the Sox and is basically a DH for a team that doesn’t play in Fenway. Vlad is under contract till 2010. Berkman is under contract till 2011. Helton’s contract goes to 2012. Chipper Jones is signed through 2009.
So exactly how do you see there being a lot of players being available that can provide comparable production to ARod? They may exist, but they’re not available.
Its kind of funny how people started to hate A-rod right after he signed that huge 25 million per year contract with Texas before then everyone use to say what a great guy and teammate he was. I call it jealousy among peers.
naw, its because he’s biracial and so good looking.
What hitter is available today that is in Arod’s caliber? I would really love to know those players names!!! ARod is in a league like himself, just like Barry Bonds was in a league by himself 3-4 years ago.
I was using those players as examples of players who have comperable hitting ability as AROD, just to illustrate he is not as unique a hitter as people seem to be making him out to be. And that $30 million can get more wins for your money shopping elsewhere on many players.
I was not trying to suggest that the mets should get pujols, which is impossible.
I disagree that Pujols is a better hitter then Arod, Pujols plays in the NL central, home of the some of the smallest ball parks on hand. If Pujols played in the NL East his hrs and average would go down. I would love to know Pujol’s numbers when he’s on the road against other divisional teams.
that should be non divisional teams. If you switch David Wright and put him on the Cardinals I’M quite sure David would be hitting hitting over .335 with 40 hrs plus a year as well.
OPS+ numbers are adjusted for ball park effects
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
Notice 3 AL East parks are in top 10, granted Skydome is neutral tropicana is pitchers park.
I think you are vastly overrated arod because of his most recent year which was at the top end of his spectrum, vs pujols who was at the bottom end of his spectrum.
The thing is that the 30M *can’t* get more wins by shopping elsewhere. Comparable hitters are already under contract, and many of them took below market contracts to sign with their current teams. Not to mention that the majority of those players are strictly 1b or DHs.
ARod’s hitting alone doesn’t make him unique. His ability to hit, combined with his relative age, combined with his health, combined with his ability to play multiple defensive positions, combined with his availability makes him unique. Look at the list of players who have hit 50 HR in a season, ARod is the *only* non-1b/OF/DH on that list. That’s pretty unique. The reason Boras is able to make his sell his clients services at such a premium is because his claims of ARod’s extraordinary baseball ability is rooted in fact.
Now, whether that is worth 30M is clearly debateable. :)
It’s a good thing I’m granting wishes for the next three minutes.
Albert’s career numbers:
Minute Maid Park - .318/.394/.599 in 274 PA
Cinergy Field - .340/.410/.600 in 173 PA
Wrigley Field - .293/.363/.595 in 252 PA
Miller Park - .335/.445/.553 in 229 PA
PNC Park - .379/.454/.753 in 219 PA
Career numbers: .332/.420/.620
Numbers in Busch Stadium II - .319/.425/.588 in 642 PA
the threads for this and john’s post are pretty awesome. really good debate. for what it’s worth:
i tried to run a (admittedly pretty simplistic) analysis of what a-rod will be worth to the mets over the next eight years in terms of wins above replacement. factoring in the switch in leagues, the displacement of either a-rod or wright, and a decline based on a-rod’s top comparables through age 31 from b-r, i came up with 7.6 wins above replacement per year over the next eight years. that’s assuming that he doesn’t suffer any major injuries, of course. it starts getting a little worrisome around age 37 (duh). a-rod is truly great, but seriously, only freaks are still playing great baseball at 38 and 39. maybe a-rod’s that kind of freak, but i wouldn’t risk $30 million a year on those odds.
something to keep in mind about this, also, is that 2007 is really skewing the numbers. not enough is being made of the fact that a-rod is coming off by far his best season at age 31. just looking at simple stats like ops+ and runs created reveal that a-rod’s more or less been in decline since age 25, with the exception of his age 29 and 31 years. he had incredible years at 29 and now at 31, but there’s no reason to see those as more indicative of his talent than his “down” years at 28 and 30. it’s really interesting that the backlash from statistically inclined people in support of a-rod seems to be to suggest that this year’s stats are way more indicative of his current talent level than last year’s were. i just don’t see that. for the analysis i ran, i used an average of his numbers for his four years in new york as a baseline, but looking at the general downward trend in his production i’d be inclined to entertain the argument that that average is in fact at the upper boundary of a-rod’s real talent right now.
in general, unless i’m way less smart about economics than i think i am, boras is seriously overselling a-rod. the fact that most people seem to be accepting the idea that a-rod should get 8-10 years at all, let alone $30 million per over that stretch makes me think i’m missing something. that price makes sense over about 6 years for a team that needs a thirdbaseman, but anything beyond that is a stretch. if i were the mets, 6/165 is about as high as i’d go. my best guess is that he actually ends up getting something like 8/240 from someone.
something else to consider that i don’t think has been mentioned yet about the defense is that if a-rod displaces wright, we’ll have another big problem in 4 or 5 years, because a-rod’s going to have to move off third base. the defensive numbers seem to suggest that he’s avg at best right now, and it’s very very possible that he will be pretty awful there in several years. i would guess that the mets would probably verify that a-rod would move to first before they offer him a contract. for the reasons already suggested by others, i don’t think it’s even a remote possibility that either a-rod or wright would be moved to second. and we just re-upped alou (which i think is a good call) so there’s no room in the outfield (unless we trade milledge/maine/fmart for santana and make a-rod play right, which i kind of like just because it’s so insane [though i would hate to see milledge go and i don’t think we can afford both a-rod and santana long term, not to mention the fact that the twins can probably get more for s-dawg]).
I’d be happy to have A-Rod if he played 1B. Moving Wright anywhere is very short-sighted. You’re going to have Wright for another 10 years, but A-Rod isn’t going to be able to play 3B for that long. After a couple years he’d have to move to 1st anyway, and at that point you’d have two firstbasemen, or the option of sending Wright BACK, which never seems to work out. So A-Rod needs to play 1st. Plus, if he agreed to play there, it’d be a nice team-kinda move to start his tenure off on the right foot. Not that it worked in the Bronx, but what does…
I honestly think arguing the defensive merits of David Wright as a third baseman compared to A-Rod or the potential for either player to play elsewhere is pretty far down on the agenda.
A-Rod is the greatest offensive talent in the game, but he’s an egotistical, fragile, weak-minded player who shrinks in big spots. The biggest problem I have with sabermetrics is that it very often tells you to ignore your common sense. A-Rod comes up short time and time in big at bats. But we’re supposed to ignore those because a system of stats tells you that he’s really not all that different from Derek Jeter in the postseason? Please.
I think Derek Jeter is overrated in so many aspects (defense, leadership, paying for hookers’ parking, etc) but the one thing I refuse to believe about him is that he is not clutch. If there’s one guy I want up in a big spot, it’s Derek Jeter (and yes, I rejoiced as much as any of you when he failed this postseason — but that’s not enough to change my mind).
So when you take that, plus the fact that the Wilpons don’t want to pay the luxury tax, plus the fact that A-Rod’s teammates always seem to hate him for whatever reason, plus the fact that his teams always seem to improve after he leaves…I don’t know, there just seem to be far too many reasons NOT to get him than there are reasons to get him.
e poc, I’m really starting to see your side of the argument. Have you seen this article by David Pinto at Sporting News? Using a sort of replacement-level salary plus an average $ per VORP figure, and increasing them at the expected rate, Pinto plugs A-Rod’s VORP and expected VORP into a table and comes up with 8 years, 216 million, with an average salary of $27 million.
If there’s no way Boras will sell A-Rod that low, the Mets should drop out of the race. A-Rod creates problems for the team to deal with, even if some of them (choke artist) are probably illusory.
Somehow, though, I don’t see A-Rod signing a contract for less than $30 million a year over at least 7 years. I wouldn’t put it past Boras to have A-Rod hold out from playing the start of the season until he gets a contract to his liking. It could get ugly, and the Mets have other needs.
thanks for that link, john. i hadn’t read it before. pinto’s a really smart guy, and i respect his opinions, but i’d quibble with a few of his premises, i think. the most obvious one is that a-rod’s 2007 vorp is a questionable baseline to use, as it’s better than any he’s posted since he was 25; a-rod’s awesome, but last year was still an anomaly. if you use his average vorp over the last three years (80) as the baseline, you would come up with a significantly lesser dollar value, which i think would be a bit more accurate. the other detail i take issue with is the idea that a-rod’s pursuit of the home run record should factor into his value. a-rod is still 244 homers behind bonds, and bonds is still playing. as good as a-rod is, i think it’s a huge mistake to assume that he’s going to even come close to that record. i guess if you assume he’s a 50 homer guy at 31, it looks like he’ll probably come close, but if you assume he’s a 35 homer guy at 30 (which he was, just one short year ago), he won’t even pass ruth. in short, it’s a big risk to assume that he’ll get there, and it shouldn’t enter into anyone’s considerations. i wouldn’t be upset if the mets got a-rod at 8/216, but again, i’d probably max out around 6/165.
Here’s another link.
i’d like that brattain article more if he mentioned what he thought a more reasonable price might be. but i think it’s good that he’s at least looking through the boras-inspired hype a little bit. the chipper jones comp is pretty interesting. except for a-rod’s huge 2007, jones was basically just as good at 31. here’s an even more interesting one, for all us mets fans: 4 years ago, carlos delgado was coming off a 302/426/593 in 161 games and a second place mvp finish at 31. there are a lot of dissimilar things about delgado and a-rod, but it’s important to remember how quickly things can go sour once a player’s in his 30s. if you think delgado for $12 million at age 36 is bad, you should think twice about a-rod at ten times that cost for ages 36-39.
great link boras link thank you
I don’t really know how those defensive metrics work, but could Wright’s OOZ prowess be explained by the fact that he plays 40 feet from the friggin line. Does that stat take into the fact that he starts outside of a 3B’s zone even though we have friggin Reyes! Or does it take into account the fielder’s starting position?
redstripe: rzr does not factor in positioning, which is important to note for a thirdbaseman because he can only reach ooz balls to his left, since his zone extends to the line on his right. still, i would not discount wright’s defense at third; i’m pretty sure whoever’s positioning him (the bench or himself) knows what they’re doing. consider that david reached 28% as many balls out of his zone as total chances inside his zone over the course of the year. taken together with the fact that there were only nine 3b in the majors better than david at converting balls in zone into outs, i think you’d have to consider david one of the best defensive 3b in baseball. basically, what seems to be happening is that the mets realize he’s got great range, so they’re expanding his zone by playing him farther off the bag.
pedro feliz, the frontrunner in rzr at 3b last year, made only 4 more plays in the zone on only 19 fewer chances, so there’s really not a whole lot of difference between he and wright. rzr also doesn’t account for how hard the balls are hit, or exactly where, so the whole thing is a little wonky, but it seems pretty safe to say that because of david’s above average rzr and amazing number of ooz plays, he’s pretty good. (note that most publicly available defensive metrics agree that david is at least above average and at best absolutely amazing.)
I think this comes down to a few things.
1. Arod is not likely to have such a good year again.
1a.Let’s not forget he was sitting in the clean up spot of a very, very good offensive team.
1b.It was a contract year.
1c.He is getting older and has had a lot of innings on him.
2.It will be a huge financial impact. T
2a.The Yanks were going to pay him a pretty ridiculous amount of money and he didn’t even sit at the table.
3.These are people not stats.
3a.They are professionals, but adding a major personality and issue like this after last season is an overreaction. I don’t know if switching around players like Wright or Reyes is the best thing for their growth as players.
Vote NO on AROD
Come on, A-Wad haters! The century mark is in reach! Put on your $6000 suit and COME ON!
Everyone makes such a stink about Wright’s ‘erratic’ arm, but word on the street is he made 21 errors last year, which sounds just about right for a third baseman who never gets a day off. His fielding percentage of .954 precisely matched the league average; he had more DPs than Es, a quick gauge of how your 3B’s fielding is. The aborted DP against the Marlins looked ugly, but cut him some slack — the throw from Lo Duca was high and he had to jump for it, which took him off the bag and caused him to go for the tag. I seriously doubt he ‘forgot’ there was a force play there, and honestly, can you really penalize a guy for not making a 5-2-5 double play?
All hail David Wright. None hail Alex the Slapper. Case closed.