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October 25, 2007
Building the 2008 Mets: Second Base
At the trade deadline last year, the Mets made only one major move to strengthen the team, dealing Drew Butera and Dustin Martin for Luis Castillo. It was a move that was hailed in the mainstream sports media as a solid move, but it also ended the chances of the Mets seeing exactly what Ruben Gotay could do. Gotay had hit .333/.377/.514 in the first half, and was on a .397/.408/.515 tear in July when Castillo was picked up. With his playing time cut again, Gotay went in the tank and finished the year at .295/.351/.421. One of the major questions for the Mets this offseason, as my colleague Dan Scotto mentioned, is “Can Ruben Gotay become a solid MLB second baseman?” While I’d like to believe it, the evidence isn’t exactly overwhelming that he can be. For one thing, The Hardball Times can tell us that his revised zone rating of .773 was the worst in the National League among players with more than 180 defensive innings at second base. While second base defense isn’t as important as shortstop defense, it’s still a key up-the-middle position, and punting it would require an above-average to good hitting performance. So can Gotay deliver that? Once again, the evidence isn’t exactly overwhelming. His BABIP of .364 was the highest amongst National League second basemen outside of Chase Utley, and BABIP can even out really fast on a player like Gotay, who didn’t really have many at-bats. Another sign that isn’t too encouraging is the motley careers had by most of his Baseball-Reference comparables through age 24, with only Mike Sweeney ending up far on the positive side of a 100 OPS+. If this doesn’t seem like a ringing endorsement for giving Gotay a chance, well, now you see why the Mets traded for Castillo in the first place. The problem with that was that Castillo isn’t really all that much better. His overheralded defensive contributions led him to a .798 revised zone rating, which among NL second baseman with over 400 innings was only better than Craig Biggio and Dan Uggla. Castillo hasn’t stolen more than 25 bases since 2002, and while he has a very respectable on-base percentage, it’s off-set by the fact that he has 24 career home runs in nearly 5500 at-bats. Castillo is a solid place-holder second baseman who is heading down the age path where players with his skills tend to diminish; he’s not someone who should be trusted to sustain his levels of production too much longer. If the Mets end up bringing him back, it will be a solid indictment that they do not trust Gotay. Past those two, the backup job is also up for grabs, provided Gotay isn’t forced into the role. Based on Gotay’s massive platoon splits (.194/.286/.222 against lefties), there should be a capable right-handed bat on the bench. And granted that the left side of the infield should be pretty much set as far as needing capable backups—knock on wood—the Mets could probably afford to have two reserves that can play second in the event that Gotay ends up not being all that great. Incumbent Luis Castillo Incumbent Two: Ruben Gotay Incumbent Three: Damion Easley Incumbent Four (yes, four): Jose Valentin. On the Farm: Emannuel Garcia, Anderson Hernandez Hernandez is probably never going to get back to his .315/.357/.421 season in 2005, when he set Norfolk and Binghamton (and his prospect status) ablaze, but he’s proven that he wouldn’t be an incapable option for the majors. He’ll only be 25 this coming year, and he’s coming off a .301/.339/.397 performance for the Zephyrs. He also contributes sterling defense as a converted shortstop. But his bat is probably never going to play in the majors unless a new deadball era arrives. Garcia is actually very reminiscent of a young Luis Castillo. He has terrific speed (73-20 SB/CS ratio in his career), he gets on-base (.359 career OBP, .339 last year in what is a terrible St. Lucie environment for hitters), and he has a solid glove despite a wild arm. In fact, according to scouting reports, he is capable of playing shortstop (and is doing so in the Hawaiian Winter League right now). Hector Pellot was the Mets second pick in the 2005 draft, and after a terrible season in 2006, rebounded to hit .274/.344/.381 with the Sand Gnats this season at Age 20. He’s re-establishing himself on the prospect radar. Some other guys who could be factors are Luis Nieves and Greg Veloz, who held their own at age-appropriate levels. This could be a very big position of strength for the Mets in the coming years. As of right now, Garcia is probably the best second base prospect the Mets have. The Best Bet: Probably Jeff Kent. Kent is disgruntled with his situation with the Dodgers, and while he’s not a good defensive second baseman, he is a good bet to sock 20 homers with an .800 OPS, which would be a huge coup for the Mets. The Mets have enough aging old hitters with injury woes though, and Kent would probably cost a team a good 6-7 million, even at age 40. As far as bang for the buck, this is probably the option the Mets would be best off with, although I don’t expect them to pursue it. Other Possible Free Agent Options: Marcus Giles, Tadahito Iguchi. Giles hit terribly in Petco Park (shocker), but he’s still got respectable career lines and would be a very young free agent at just 30. The Padres hold an option on him that I expect them to pick up, despite the poor line. Iguchi was Chase Utley insurance for the Phils, and has proven himself a very capable second baseman offensively over his career. He could be a free agent if the Phillies don’t take him back. Iguchi isn’t as reputable with the glove as Giles, but they’d both make for solid pickups should the Mets decide they don’t want Castillo, but can’t trust Gotay. Trade Possibilities: Brian Roberts, Orlando Hudson Another pair of quality options for the Mets to look into. Roberts is never going to slug .500 again, but he’s a terrific second-baseman, and he and Reyes would be scintillating at the top of the order for the next few years. Unfortunately, it’s doubtful that Peter Angelos or the people who pretend like they have real jobs under him would let him go. Meanwhile, Orlando Hudson is coming off a career year, hitting .294/.376/.441 in the friendly confines of Chase Field. He’s won multiple gold gloves. The problem the Mets have here is that most of their prospects are outfielders, while the Diamondbacks have outfield prospects coming out of their ears. And just to lob a bone to the commenters about trading for “young player X”, I don’t think the Mets will go that route, because if they are going to hand the job to a young ’un, they might as well see if Gotay can handle it in-house for a few months first. How I’d Play It I guess you can probably figure this out from the slant of the article, but I’d let Castillo walk and give Gotay a chance, even though I’m probably not as enamored with him as most. I’d platoon him with Easley, have Valentin or a similar player on the bench to round out the infield, and give them a few months to see how it works out. There will be plenty of fixes available in-season if Gotay flubs the opportunity, just as there were last year. Rivers can't help you play better than Tiny Iota. That guy was great. Comments and criticisms can be sent to rivers.mccown@gmail.com. 29 Responses to “Building the 2008 Mets: Second Base”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Really nice article Chris.
If Mets fans would promise to be polite, I would invite Kaz back. OK, OK, I know that pisses off Metsgeeks. To save ten responses, I will concede that Castillo is the better defensive player, even though it is no longer true. To save another 10, I’ll concede that Castillo is the better offensive player, even though it is not true…But anyway, there is no possiblity that the Mets will want Kaz and no possibility he would ever want to come back, so never mind…
Chris, your article convinced me that Castillo should go. I’d be happy with Gotay (is it slow response to hit balls that makes him a poor second baseman, besides not being good at turning the double play?) and with Ahern. I truly believe that AHern would bat between .260 and .270 if given 500 at bats, and his defense would of course be sterling.
If Kent would be one fo the few players hovering just north or south of 40, and if the firstbaseman was just a tad more mobile than a statue, I would probably like the idea. As you wrote Chris, barring serious injury, its a virtual certainty of at least homeruns in the low 20’s. But given the present geriatric makeup of the club, I don’t like it. I’ll be very satisfied to fill second between Gotay, Ahern, Easly and Valentin. And if either Easley or Valentin are on the team, Willie must be told that they can only play within 120 feet of home plate.
Well, if someone borrowed mny copy of Swank, I wouldn’t want it back. :)
Good read Chris.
I’d like Orlando Hudson.
I’ll settle for Castillo on a 1+option deal.
If he declines, then go with Gotay.
I think the most likely thing to happen is bringing back Castillo on a 2 year deal. If they don’t resign Castillo and go into the spring with some combination of Gotay, Ahern, Easley, Valentin,… I think AHern will win that battle and be named the starter.
Excellent article Chris - very well thought out. Since we are again going to be counting on several very old players (LF,1b-definitely limited range,&bat speed, c-may have a 35 yr old starter & 1 ancient starter, another high mileage) I dont see how we can have two backup IF’s in the 37-38 range or consider Kent, even though he is likely the most offensive capable 2b out there. While Castillo has had a nice career, the athleticism that was a strength isnt really there any more. I think we have to let Ruben & Ahern battle it out to see who is better suited to be a starter. Easley & Marlon can serve as fill-ins & PH’s.
Depending on the knee assessment, I like Castillo back for next year. He’s still a solid professional, still a solid 2 hitter that is a great bunter and knows how to take pitches and move runners. As for defense, I know the arguments were made on what gold gloves do or do not mean when he came over at the deadline. I was for it then, and am for it now. Gold gloves DO mean something. The guy can still field with the best of them and proved it down the stretch with some big plays.
I don’t know about this fancy SABER “zone-range” stat you have there in support of your case, but I do know that there are three types of falsehoods in this world, in increasing order of deceitfullness, according to the great Mark Twain: lies, damn lies, and statistics. Statistics don’t tell the whole story. But I have coached ball and played second all my life before that and this guy bad knee and all knows HOW to play second. He can still pick it.
Gotay obviously stays as the backup and future. I like the kid bunches but i don’t think he’s ready for it to be handed to him yet. He needs to work defensively.
No Kent. Clubhouse poison. I would love B. Roberts but the O’s would be insane to deal him (Angelos is insane though).
KHPS: You obviously weren’t watching the same games as I was (and I played second base as well). Castillo’s range is nowhere near as good as it used to be. In fact, it’s quite poor. The problem with defense is if a guy used to be good, you tend to hold onto his past defensive reputation. He’s just not that good any more! Anyone with eyes can see he’s not that good anymore, but because he’s compared to Gotay he’s considered a whiz or something.
this is a tough call.
I’m not in love with Castillo or Gotay. They both have major deficiencies.
I’ll leave this one to Omar
Utter bullshit.
Great read.
However, what about Jake “The Rake” Gautreau ???
;-)
Good read. I wrote something similar over at Blastings! Thrilledge: http://blastingsthrilledge.blogspot.com/2007/10/assembling-2008-mets-part-three-outside_25.html, but I got bored and didn’t finish it. I think a trade for Mark Ellis is a possibility.
I also want to hear about Jake Gautreau.
If I’m in charge, I give Gotay the job and keep Easley around just in case it’s June and Gotay has slumped for two months straight.
Line-up: Reyes, Milledge, Wright, Beltran, Alou, Delgado, Gotay, LoDuca
Bench: Chavez, Marlon Anderson, Castro, Easley, Anderson Hernandez
I realize that probably won’t be how its handled but that’s how I’d go.
“I’ll concede that Castillo is the better offensive player, even though it is not true…”
Kazuo Matsui: 747 OPS in a hitter’s park, OPS+ of 86, 100 is league average. Road OPS of 638. Yes, Colorado is a hitter’s park. Matsui’s nice looking numbers are a result of hitting in Colorado.
Luis Castillo: OPS for the season 721, with the Mets 743 in a notorious pitcher’s park. OPS+ for the season 92, OPS+ with the Mets 96.
Kaz is not a good offensive player.
his numbers are absolutely inflated by the joke known as coors.
People really need to stop buying into the hype.
Y’all sound like Tim McCarver when you do it
Thank you for the fresh air on Kaz Matsui to combat the stale wind.
The only problem I have is the postive feelings about exhuming Jeff Kent and Jose Valentin. I would not touch either player unless it’s getting Valentin to coach. Let Gotay, Garcia, etc. battle it out. Castillo has no upside. Let’s see if Gotay gives up his switch hitting bit and learns how to hit lefties. If you can get Iguchi, Hudson, et. al. on the cheap, by all means. But I would say only on the cheap. Give Keppinger’s replacement a chance to allow the trade not to blow up in Omar’s face.
I deliberately avoided mentioning Kaz Matsui. I don’t think anyone really thinks that will work out.
I do like the Mark Ellis idea; awesome defensive player. I worry about Omar getting fleeced by Beane though, cause this was Ellis’ career year.
Jake Gautreau went to Tulane and hasn’t hit over .226 in AAA since 2005. He also loves Miss Vicki’s jalapeño chips.
I might be in the minority, but I’m actually pretty content with a Luis Castillo/Ruben Gotay tandem for 2B. It’s not like there are a ton of “Chase Utleys” out there to choose from.
Luis Castillo as already mentioned fits in quite nicely in the #2 spot with a nice OBP right in front of the heart of the Mets lineup. Ruben Gotay is a very good younger compliment to him at the position who can also (hopefully) fill in occasionally at SS & 3B as well.
Works for me.
Luis Castillo is my least favorite type of player: a declining, one-dimensional singles hitter. Does anybody know what kind of draft pick we get if Castillo leaves? If he’s a type A free agent it would just be sheer insanity to re-sign him.
Castillo is a Type A, IIRC.
Kaz Matsui can **** my ****ing ****.
There are a lot of asterixes in my opinion of Kaz. He looks like a competent major league hitter at Coors or Citizen’s Bandbox and other than that, he’s a bum.
And I agree with JK… Castillo is one-dimensional, injury-prone and… at this point in his career… over-rated.
It’s not that he’s a bad player, he’s completely servicable, but he’s not the guy he was before his knees started to go and he’s never gonna be that dude again.
He’s okay but he’s not so good that he’s worth delaying giving Gotay a shot for.
Castillo is overrated and this team needs more pop. The Mets did not hit with enough power in 2007 and Castillo doesn’t hit anything but singles.
Oh, and so much for the Rockies. The NL is crap.
The mets didn´t hit with enough pop because Delgado was asleep and most of the OF was on the DL. If we have to worry about pop from the second baseman then we have the wrong guys at 1st, LF and RF.
Lord, I hope take the pick over Castillo.
And if Csstillo came back, he would continue to be Willie’s pet and Gotay would waste away on the bench. I hate having to Willie-proof a team (a coach is not supposed to tie your hands and be a huge liability) but there you go.
I’m not in love with Gotay, but given his splits and Easleys, the obvious answer seems to be the platoon between the two. We can test Gotay against lefties when the inevitable injury to Easley takes place. It might get better if he gives up switch hitting.
I’m not sure if “crushes” is the right word to use to describe Gotay’s ability to hit right handed pitching. I don’t think .318, .367, .468 has counted as crushes since they lowered the mounds after ‘68, and it definitely doesn’t apply to .268, .313, .403, or his career numbers. Having said that, combining him and Easley, if they maintain their level of play, could be very decently productive. Gotay seemed to have a very good swing as a lefty, but pretty weak as a righty, so he very well may have figured somethinig out. Castillo, on the other hand, is pretty much a lock to hit .300 (give or take a few points), and get in as many games as Beltran, whose durability never seems to be questioned, and while his range has diminished, who out there is better? But one apect of his game that I don’t think is getting credit is his contact. He doesn’t walk much, but he strikes out less, and I can’t seem to find the stat but he seems to battle his at bats. So what? With all the speed the Mets have now the more balls in play (particularly on the ground) the better. Even if he can’t steal 50 bases anymore, he’s still pretty darn fast, so his contact and eye batting second is way more valueable than LoDuca’s, whose ‘06 combined with Reyes was a big part of the offfense.
I totally agree with aussieyankee’s assessment. Gotay? If he was as solid as everyone seems to think I think he would have held on in KC or even here with the Mets. His defense is weak and there is a good likelihood that he wouldn’t have kept hitting that well. Valentin? He doesn’t hit nearly well enough eand I’m not impressed by his fielding or baserunning ability. Easely is a bench player. Castillo is by far the best option I’ve seen out there. He hits well. Good, not great defense. Good on the bases. Professional. I doubt we could get Ellis after the year he’s had and I have no interest in all in a guy like Kent. He’s a clubhouse cancer and he’s 40. To me second base is already taken care of for the next year or so with Castillo and we’d be best to focus our efforts on pitching and catcher.
But one apect of his game that I don’t think is getting credit is his contact.
There’s no positive correlation between contact-hitting (not striking out) and offensive performance. In fact, if anything, it’s the opposite.
There’s no positive correlation between contact-hitting (not striking out) and offensive performance. In fact, if anything, it’s the opposite.
I don’t think I understand your point, could you elaborate?
What I was saying is that making contact is a skill that he has that could be utilized in the offense the Mets currently have, not that making contact makes him a productive hitter. But outside of a double play a ball in play can make something happen, whereas a strikeout does nothing. Does anyone remember what a pain in the ass it was to play the Cardinals in the Whitey Herzog days? Single after single, first to third again and again. Speed isn’t just for stealing. Sure it might take two or three hits to score a run, but is that really less likely to occur than a homerun? Has anyone ever done the math?
I think Blastings is saying that making an out is making an out and guys who don’t strikeout a lot are given a ton of credit for this even though it is not an inherently valuable skill. Grounding out or flying out is no more valuable than striking out, and constant contact can also lead to more double plays.
I don’t have the time to look up stats, but I bet if you look up the league leaders in Ks, you will see a lot of very good power hitting types, and also a few lousy players. If you look up the lowest K rates you will see a bunch of mediocre to lousy Juan Pierre/Eckstein types, and Albert Pujols.