my account:
premium blogad:
blogads:
advertisement:
advertisement:
sitemeter:
advertisement:
|
|
|
August 21, 2007
Upcoming Series: San Diego Padres Pitchers
Can’t the Mets just stay on the road? Pretty please, with sugar on top? The Mets took five of six games on the road, and while the series against the Pirates wasn’t especially pretty, it was nice to watch the Mets (70-53) beat up on a mediocrity like the Washington Nationals. Now the Mets return to Shea to host a couple of West Coast teams, beginning with the San Diego Padres (66-57). The Padres are a team built on pitching and defense, featuring arguably the NL’s two best starters, its best bullpen, and a defense that ranks third in Revised Zone Rating. The Game One matchups are Chris Young (9-4, 1.93) and John Maine (13-7, 3.59). The series continues as Clay Hensley (2-3, 6.70) faces off against former Padre Brian Lawrence (1-0, 5.06). Finally, Jake Peavy (13-5, 2.19) opposes Tom Glavine (11-6, 4.12) on Thursday. Game 1: Chris YoungWhat’s the Story? Chris Young has put together a nice little season for himself. He leads the NL in ERA and WHIP, and he ranks third in the league in strikeouts per nine innings. While some of this may seem flukey to some, it’s not entirely a fluke. He finished in the top ten in all three categories in 2006 as well. Needless to say, the trade that sent Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka for Young, Adrian Gonzalez, and Termel Sledge has worked out well for the Pads. Young doesn’t throw particularly hard—which has fueled skepticism about his success in the past—with his fastball topping out around 90. However, it has outstanding life, and he can throw it to any spot he chooses. He also has two outstanding breaking pitches, a slow curve and a harder slider, to go along with a decent changeup. Last Year: Young made two starts against the Mets last year and had a little difficulty. He pitched just nine innings, allowing seven runs on ten hits. His control was particularly suspect in one start where he allowed six walks over five innings. What to Expect: Young’s fastball hasn’t had quite as much movement lately due to an oblique strain he suffered in late July. It didn’t seem to affect his performance too much in his last start, as he threw six shutout innings. Young will move his fastball all around the zone, while mixing in his breaking pitches to keep batters off-balance. You might expect a few more breaking balls than normal due to the oblique. Young’s BABIP is an extremely low .247, which is actually ten points worse than it was last year. He’s been helped a great deal by the Pads’ outfield and PETCO’s spacious dimensions—nearly 70% of his balls in play are in the air. Despite that tendency, he’s allowed just four homers years. Game 2: Clay HensleyWhat’s the Story? After making 29 pretty good starts in 2006, Hensley started the season as the Pads’ fifth starter but lost his job at the start of May due to ineffectiveness. Hensley replaced David Wells in the Padres rotation in early August after a three month exile in Portland where he was ineffective (2-6, 6.55 ERA). Since then, he’s been (surprise!) ineffective, allowing eight runs in ten innings, including homerun number 756 to Barry Bonds. Hensley throws a sinking fastball that can hit 93, a nice slider, an average curve, and a changeup that could use a little work. Last Year: Hensley started twice against the Mets in 2006, pitching okay, but not great. He won his first start despite allowing four runs over five-and-a-third. He allowed five hits and three walks while striking out three. In his second start, Hensley allowing nine hits and four walks over six innings, allowing four more runs. He struck out six batters. What to Expect: Hensley has a few problems that are keeping him from becoming a serviceable pitcher in the majors. First, he doesn’t strike out enough hitters, averaging just 4.87 per nine innings in 2007. Second, he walks way too many (5.48 BB/9). Finally, Hensley really needs to develop that changeup to increase his effectiveness against lefties, who have historically hit him fairly well. This year has been a little different in that righties have hit him just as hard as lefties have. When Hensley’s at his best, he keeps the fastball down in the zone, using the slider as an out pitch against righties while mixing in the change against lefties. Hensley also lacks stamina, making it into the seventh just once this year. Game 3: Jake PeavyWhat’s the Story? You can find my original scouting report on Peavy here. This Year: The Mets handed Peavy one of his five losses on July 17th. He went just six innings, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks while striking out five. Carlos Beltran hit him particularly well, knocking two doubles. What to Expect: After “enduring” a bit of a “rough patch” where he went 1-4 with a 4.14 ERA over six starts, Peavy has bounced back nicely, going 4-0 with a 1.07 ERA over his last five. Expect a healthy dose of fastballs with late sinking movement which he’ll use to set up that hellacious slider. He’ll mix in the solid change to give hitters a third pitch to look at. He won’t walk many, and hitters will be lucky to sink a few singles against him. Despite not pitching at PETCO, it wouldn’t be wise to expect homers against Peavy—like Young, he doesn’t give them up (just six in 164.6 innings). Overall: As high as I am on the Mets after a sweep against the Nats, it’s just impossible to pick the Mets to win this series, not when they’re facing both Peavy and Young. They can beat Hensley—they faced him twice last year, and he’s been positively awful this year—but I wouldn’t feel confident squaring off against the other two. If Young’s sore oblique flattens his fastball again, the Mets have a better chance, but Young’s a good enough pitcher to adapt to that. Pads take two of three, but the Mets will keep the other two games close. Alex is a raving lunatic whose work can be found regularly here at Mets Geek. He welcomes comments and criticisms at kingblackfish@yahoo.com. 16 Responses to “Upcoming Series: San Diego Padres Pitchers”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
advertisement:latest poll:
recommended journals:
recent user journals:
advertisement:recent articles:
rss/syndication:your ad here:advertisement: |
Loading ...
i think they can beat young..count me as one of those people that is skeptical he is doing so well…they hit him well last year and didn’t seem overly impressive
At least we don’t face their real ace. Boomer, we hardly knew ye.
FIRST (to predict Mets take two of three!!)
Call me crazy but I like to convince myself that the Padres pitchers are only good at Petco. The numbers don’t really support it but we have to convince ourselves of irrational things in this game of ball.
Mets take two outta three.
Yahoo! seems to think Peavy goes on Wednesday and that the Padres will start Germano on Thursday. Any truth to this?
yea alot of sites seem to think peavy is pitching game 2…
Heath Bell comes to town to remind us that neither Omar nor many Metsgeeks are prophets when it comes to relief pitching. The likely response to this may be that Bell had a number of chances and performed poorly for the Mets. But it simply isn’t true. Willie would pitch him about once every nine days. Imagine what Wagner would do under those conditions.
I am also not a prophet, and am not sure whether I am predicting or hoping, that Maine returns to his early season brilliance.
You know I could have sworn I heard during the broadcast the other night that Young, Peavy, and Germano were starting. But MLB.com and ESPN.com each had rotation above, so I figured I was crazy.
My biggest pet peeve about doing this feature is how often MLB.com is flat out wrong about pitching probables. You’d be surprised how often I wind up writing scouting reports on four (or even five) guys because MLB.com can’t provide accurate information on their own teams.
Any news on tonight’s status? When is it supposed to stop raining?
Gary Cohen kept saying Young, Peavy for tonight and tomorrow
Well, if we are going to take 2 out of three in this series we better get a big pitching performance from our “ace” John Maine. We need him to step up tonight and let us take this game. If we can win tonight I think we have a very good shot at 2 out of 3, lose tonight and we are pressing bigtime for a tomorrow with the thought of a sweep in the back of our minds with Peavy going on Thursday.
Good teams win this series at home, I think this team understands that now and will take care of this series.
Not sure who you’re referring to as we were clamoring for Heath Bell since the site’s inception. I know a lot of readers here didn’t think he had big league stuff but the writers have been fans of his for a long, long time.
Down here in Charlotte, look like the game will play tongiht?
Bell hasnt been anything special since June.
Back to back months with 4+ ERAs.
dptydwg, good point, maybe he is fading (they have pitched him a lot and he may be tiring). But overall, his stats are better than any Met revliever except Wagner, and isn’t he one of the league headers in holds?
Eric, I wasn’t referring to the Metsgeek writers (I’d prefer to see a number of Metsgeek writers replace Willie and Omar) and certainly not to everyone. A number of Metsgeeks suggested he had the potential if given the chance. But there were many who insisted he was AAAA after Willie would misuse him.