The next 2 weeks, or more accurately the next 13 games have been looming on our schedule for the past 2 months. You could see this stretch coming all along as it seemed all year we were hovering between a 2-4 game lead in the division and coming up short in every series against the Braves this year. This is the stretch run, we are coming into this big stretch with a 5 game lead (thanks to a hapless Nats team and two wonderful comebacks by the Pirates). And now is when we get to really see what this team is made of.

These next two weeks should be the entire season for the Mets. If we can make a statement in these games and win 8 or 9 of these next 13 games versus San Diego / LA Dodgers / Phillies / Braves then we likely win this division easily in September. That is of course the dream scenario, we come out of this two week stretch 79-57 with a 6 - 8 game lead going into September, Pedro coming back (I predict he will make his first start for the big league team against Cincy following Labor Day weekend). The division will be strongly in our control and our primary focus for the last 2-3 weeks of September will be on getting healthy and seeing if we can get Pedro into form for the “real” season in October.

Then there is the nightmare scenario, one where we lose go 2-4 at home AGAIN against two good west coast teams and get beat up in Philly only to get swept by the Braves in the popular Met death trap known as Turner Field. Atlanta always seems to be a place where Met dreams go to die, and in this scenario we go into September being out of first place for the first time in months and looking up at one and maybe even two teams and praying that a return of Pedro can spark us to catch back up in a September filled with big games and a lot of dread.

And then there is the path that our Met team always seems to take this year. We go 3-3 at home against the West Coast teams, split the games in Philly and play a close series with the Braves where we get the usual 1-2 result. We follow that stetch up with a feel good sweep of the Reds which as usual with the series after the Braves games this year erases the gains the Braves made in taking 2 of 3 from us.

In 2006 I would have almost expected to see something roughly along the lines of scenario 1. So lets hope that with our team finally getting close to healthy (Endy and Pedro both played last night!), we can go 9-4 before labor day and pack our bags for Cincy with a commanding lead of the division and the post season in our future.

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I just turned 30 and have been a Met fan and baseball fan since my first conscious thought. I found this site recently and it looks like I have finally found a home for my Met Geekiness. I think you will see a lot out of me over time and I hope I add something positive to the site and community.

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4 Responses to “A season defined in 2 weeks”

1. Comment posted by littlefallsmets on August 21, 2007 at 12:11 pm (#472540)

   I think they’ll look good against the Padres and the Dodgers and the Phillies…

   And…

   Man, I hate the Braves.

2. Comment posted by JamesSC on August 21, 2007 at 3:34 pm (#473043)

   We could “look good” against those three teams and still only come out 5-5 in those games. I could easily see us losing 2 of 3 to the Padres since we get stuck with Young and Peavy in the series, then take 2 of 3 against a struggling Dodgers team and split the series in Philly.

   That would be “holding our own” but would probably cost us a game or two in the standings going into Turner Field.

   And man, I hate the Braves too.

3. Comment posted by JamesSC on August 21, 2007 at 3:44 pm (#473083)

   Also I just want to point out how rude it is that we get Peavy and Young but Philly will only get Young in the finale of their series with the Padres (I guess it could have been worse if Young & Peavy were games 2 & 3 of our series and missed Philly entirely).

   We also get stuck with Penny in our LA series while Philly misses him as well.

   And of course Atl gets Cincy and St. Looie during this time so they have an excellent chance to gain ground on both of us this week.

4. Comment posted by syracusemetfan on August 25, 2007 at 10:57 am (#481323)

   So far JamesSC - you’re about right on the money…

   Mets did drop 2/3 to the Fathers and are off to a quick start against the LADofLA. With Stults and Tomko starting for LADofLA vs. Duke and whatever, a sweep is not out of the question, and 2/3 looking very doable.

   With SD’s routing the Cheesesteaks last night, perhaps they are getting hot for a push to catch the DBacks. Have to at least hope they help the Mets out by taking 2/3 in the Bandbox.

   Utley may be back but Hamels going to the 15 day DL is a real blow to the Phils. I think they have enough offense to hold their own - but likely not make a huge run at the Mets w/o Hamels (barring a Met collapse which I don’t see happening right now).

   Mets need to close escrow on LAD and at least split with Philly. We’d all like to see them take a series vs. ATL and I think they will down in Atlanta. They can’t go the while season not winning a series vs. them - can they? They’re not world beaters…if the Mets do feel obligated to dump the next ATL series, at least win 1 game, can’t do much damage that way. We’ll just have to let the rest of the league do our dirty work.

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