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January 29, 2007
Breaking Down the Mets’ Other Strawberry
Last month, MetsGeek announced the Inaugural MetsGeek Essay Contest, by which readers could submit their own essays for publication on the site. We’d like to thank all those who submitted entries; on the whole, they were quite good. The MetsGeek staff narrowed the field down to five, each of which will be run over the course of this week. At the end of the week, readers will be able to pick their favorite to determine the winner. We’d like to present the first of these, a column entitled “Breaking Down the Mets’ Other Strawberry,” written by David Berg (also known around these parts as “argonbunnies”), examining the career of one very unique Mets pitcher. Enjoy! He had a body no scout could love. 6′1″, 230 lbs. Stocky limbs, average shoulders, wide chest, big belly, absolutely huge hips and butt. A lefty pitcher without great control or particularly impressive velocity. This was Charles Sidney Fernandez, from Honolulu, Hawaii. During the years he played for the New York Mets, he ensured that the team not only boasted an outfielder named after a strawberry — they also had a pitcher shaped like one. A pitcher who, while showing barely an ounce of agility or athleticism, just might have been the toughest hurler to hit, ever. Let’s take a look at what “El Sid” accomplished: IP G W L ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 1866.7 307 114 96 110 1.14 6.85 0.92 3.45 8.40 ERA 10% better than league avg? Ordinary. 18 games over .500? Ordinary. Three and a half walks per game? Ordinary. In terms of overall effectiveness, it could fairly be said that Fernandez was only slightly above average. An ordinary starting pitcher. But there was definitely something unique about him: All-Time Leaders Lowest Opponents' Average 1. Sandy Koufax .203 2. Nolan Ryan .204 3. Pedro Martinez .209 4. Sid Fernandez .209 Let’s look at that .209 opponents’ batting average more closely. Sid gave up 1421 hits in 6793 at bats. Subtracting his 1743 strikeouts and 191 homeruns allowed gives you a .253 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). BABIP is a popular measurement for stat geek prognosticators, because it tends to regress to the mean. Some theorists will tell you that, for a pitcher, BABIP is entirely luck, and a pitcher who succeeds one year with an unusually low BABIP (like John Maine’s .225 in 2006) is likely due for a performance decline the next year. It’s unlikely he’ll be so lucky again; if his walk, strikeout, and homer rates stay the same, he’ll almost certainly fare worse. BABIP doesn’t vary much between current pitchers if you sample their entire careers. Let’s compare a groundball pitcher, a flyball pitcher, a strikeout pitcher, a finesse pitcher, and a flat-out awful pitcher: Pitcher BABIP Derek Lowe .294 Eric Milton .286 Randy Johnson .296 Tom Glavine .286 Jose Lima .305 That’s not a whole lot of variation. The difference between Randy Johnson’s career opponents’ average of .217 and Derek Lowe’s .259 is easily explained by one factor: Johnson strikes out a lot more guys than Lowe. So, was that same factor the key to Sid’s success? He was indeed an excellent strikeout pitcher. However, he clearly was not in the same league as the other top guys on the all-time low average list: Pitcher K/9 Rank Sandy Koufax 9.28 5 Nolan Ryan 9.55 4 Pedro Martinez 10.20 3 Sid Fernandez 8.40 15 I saw this, and came up with a theory. For anyone who never saw Sid pitch, the closest motion from a lefty out there right now belongs to Colorado’s Brian Fuentes. Fuentes never gets the ball very high, and throws sidearm, but without the big sweeping motion that a lot of sidearmers use. Sid was like that, but even weirder. His delivery was decribed at various times as “pushing the ball”, “throwing uphill”, and “a herky-jerky motion, seemingly throwing the ball entirely with his arm after finishing his stride.” There are plenty of pitchers playing today who have weird motions, most of them specialist relievers who dominate either left-handed or right-handed batters. Sid was no specialist, though, posting strong numbers against both (.209 average allowed to righties, .212 to lefties). Fuentes has enjoyed similar success (.233 versus righties, .221 versus lefties), but with just 300 innings under his belt, it may be premature to put him in the same class as Fernandez. Especially when you consider one key difference between them: Fuentes is skinny. Sid was a big fat guy in a white uniform throwing a white ball. His weird motion combined with his girth to produce the effect of the ball coming out of his shirt. Keith Hernandez wrote the following about the
Sid’s release wasn’t just some unusual gimmick that took batters time to adjust to. Instead, it actually made the ball hard to see, regardless of how many times you’d faced him before (I doubt Sid would have fared as well if he’d been with the Mets when the black uniform shirts caught on!). Knowing this about Sid and remembering how many pop-ups he always seemed to generate and his relatively low strikeout rate (compared to guys like Pedro and Ryan), I came up with the theory that his “funk” was violating the law of BABIP. What if Sid’s invisible release point and the batter’s late look at his pitches caused weak swings, or an inability to square the ball? Could Sid be the guy who would fall outside of that magical .280-.305 BABIP range? Yes! Sid Fernandez .253 BABIP. I really thought I had it. I had planned to end this article with a few closing statements about Sid’s career and anoint him as the “Toughest Pitcher Ever to Make Hard Contact Against.” Unfortunately, a few guys had to go and sabotage my great idea: Pitcher BABIP Years Mario Soto .259 1977-88 Sandy Koufax .260 1957-66* Tom Seaver .264 1967-86 Luis Tiant .266 1964-82 Jose DeLeon .270 1983-95 J.R. Richard .273 1973-80 *BABIP data not available for 1955 and 1956 When guys like Sid, Soto, and DeLeon were pitching, it seems like fewer balls were falling in than during the time of Lowe, Milton, and Randy Johnson. Was the 1985 NL filled with better fielders, softer baseballs, and more pitcher-friendly parks than the 2000 AL? I decided to test the biggest disparity in pitching conditions I could think of: the late 90’s Rockies versus someone from the late 60’s (I picked the Tigers). And, indeed, this difference is reflected in BABIP. From 1998 to 2000, Pedro Astacio had BABIP’s of .331, .334, and .338. Denny McLain from 1966 to 1968 posted marks of .226, .254, and .235. I haven’t found any sources for the BABIP’s of leagues, seasons, or parks, but my sampling of individual performances seems to suggest that different conditions produce different BABIP numbers. And, it looks like Sid pitched in decidedly pitcher-friendly conditions during his career. Baseball-reference.com has a formula to “neutralize” pitchers’ performances to historically average conditions. This effectively adjusts BABIP, doesn’t adjust strikeout rate, and adjusts homerun rate without factoring in individual pitchers’ groundball-flyball ratios. So, it’s far from perfect in neutralizing pitchers’ opponents’ batting average. It is, however, close enough that we now see the correlation between strikeout rate and opponents’ average we might expect: Lowest Opponents' Average (Neutralized) 1. Pedro Martinez .204 2. Randy Johnson .211 3. Kerry Wood .215 4. Sandy Koufax .220 5. Roger Clemens .221 6. Nolan Ryan .228 7. Sid Fernandez .228 Strikeouts per 9 Innings 1. Randy Johnson 10.77 2. Kerry Wood 10.36 3. Pedro Martinez 10.20 4. Nolan Ryan 9.55 5. Sandy Koufax 9.28 So, there really is no unique, miraculous explanation for Sid’s feat. He struck out a lot of guys and pitched in favorable conditions. Shea kept all the flyballs hit off the bats of right-handed batters from turning into homeruns: W L ERA HR/9 Sid At Shea 58 31 2.52 0.66 Sid Elsewhere 56 65 4.01 1.13 And really, homers were the name of the game throughout El Sid’s career: In Sid's wins 0.62 HR/9 In Sid's losses 1.21 HR/9 I have no more stats to offer as proof of Sid’s uniqueness, other than a few that I remember from watching him pitch: 88, 65, and 2. Those are the average speed of his fastball (which often got up to 91, but never 93), the average speed of his curveball (which was so lazy that hitters could be fooled and still readjust), and the number of pitches he threw with any consistency. That a pitcher could turn an arsenal like that into an 8.4 K/9 rate, fourth best in history at the time of his retirement, is unique indeed. Of course, Sid could have been even greater if he hadn’t been quite so predictable with his first-pitch fastballs (opponents hit .278 and slugged .481 off his initial offerings), if he hadn’t taken his flyball tendencies to Baltimore (where he yielded a ridiculous 1.82 HR/9), and if he’d managed to control his weight and stay healthy a few more seasons. Sid gradually improved his walk rate throughout his career, and over 1991-93 posted his best ERA+ numbers. Unfortunately, 1992 was his last fully healthy season, at age 29. The leg injuries that ended his career might have been avoided had he kept some of the weight off. On the other hand, that big old white-jerseyed hitters’ background just might have been the key to Sid’s success. MetsGeek.com is your source for daily Mets analysis and insight the likes of which only a group of ginormous uber-nerds could provide. 22 Responses to “Breaking Down the Mets’ Other Strawberry”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Does anybody remember what happened to him in that last start in Houston? Looked like a decent start according to his stats but, for some reason, I remember an injury.
Excellent post. Hopefully that ratchets up the competition.
He did have the weirdest delivery I’ve ever seen — it really did seem like he waited for his stride to finish before the arm got into the picture. Made you wonder why he bothered to stride; he could’ve just thrown standing still. Also made you wonder when his arm was going to come off and land on the first-base line.
I can imagine that stride vs. throw dichotomy made it very tough on the hitters’ timing, just as his bulky body made it tough to see the ball at all.
Game Seven? Hot.
Game Five in the ‘88 LCS? Not.
Thanks for giving such a detailed look at one of my favorite pitchers.
All hail argonbunnies beep boop
Minor league fun facts on El Sid:
August 21, 1981: Strikes out 21 batters in Rookie ball.
April 24, 1982: Pitches a no-hitter in high A ball (Fla State League), whiffing 16.
May 14, 1982: Again fans 21.
June 8, 1982: Pitches his second no-hitter of the year, beating Ft. Lauderdale 1-0, while striking out 16. Still 4 months short of his 20th birthday, Sid is promoted to AAA Albuquerque of the Pacific Coast League.
December 8, 1983: Dodgers send pitching prospect Sid Fernandez and SS Ross Jones to the Mets in exchange for utility players Carlos Diaz and Bob Bailor. Apparently they were more scared by his weight than impressed by his 12.55 K/9 over 3 minor league seasons.
tom totem your explanation is exactly the one Tim McCarver gave when explaining why El Sid was so successful. This lack of synchronization between the arm and body movement totally destroyed the hitters timing and trigger mechanisms. When El Sid was with Baltimore my nephew called me and complained that he couldn’t understand why El Sid was so successful with the Mets and a disaster with the Orioles. He also couldn’t understand how El Sid could strike out people with a 88mph fastball. Part of it was the ball park differences but I believe part was El Sid was starting to break down at that point. It is also possible that part of El Sid’s success with the Mets came from the variation from starting pitcher to starting pitcher. The Mets staff at that time was quite remarkable and for a hitter presented a different challenge from game to game during a given series.
My recollection is that Sid was very effective when pitching out of a full wind up, but very hittable when he had men on base and pitched out of the stretch. I always thought he would have been more successful if he had always pitched out of a full wind up,even if he had men on base.
What was Sid’s career FIP? I kid I kid.
This was great argobunnies. I hadn’t thought about Sid’s wacky windup for quite a while. It’s always interesting to try and dissect how a player can consistently outperform his peripherals. I loved your Fuentes example. Spot-on, man.
The Not Flyin’ Hawaiian will always be one of my favorite players from my youth. A unique athlete, for sure.
One thing about El Sid that may explain his lack of success in Charm City and his low BABIP rates is the fact that he was an extreme fly ball pitcher, he allowed very few ground balls, maybe less than any pitcher I remember. He once pitched a complete game for the Mets that didn’t include an assist by a fielder, that remarkable.
Sid was the Man thanks for remembering him and thanks for the great love for him argonbunnies. He was my fav pitcher not named dwight gooden during that time. At times he seemed to have better stuff than doc too. I still remember the fans in LF hanging the S for Sid, for every K he got. He definately was the unsung hero in game 7 too.
my favorite pitches of that generation of mets. EL Sid, David Cone, Rick Agulirra, and Dwight Gooden in that order.
nice job argon.
Long Live El Sid.
‘hey sid, you pitched your asses off tonight.’
- doug sisk
Great job Argon!!! El Sid is my favorite Mets pitcher of all time. Love how you used Lima as an example of an awful pitcher
I remember watching that game! I want to say it was against Atlanta.
Good analysis, but I would have liked a bit more emotion. I always liked Sid as a pitcher but never really knew why. I watched him pitch from the 4th row behind home plate in Dodger Stadium in his prime and what impressed me most was the break on his curve. It made the fastball that much more devastating. The title of your article is great though. I thought immediately “If he’s not talking about Sid Fernandez, I don’t know who it is”
Y’know, I remember the exact same thing. It seemed like every time he gave up a HR, there was a runner or two on. However, the stats tell a different story:
Bases empty: .206/.280/.342
Runners on: .215/.299/.363
That’s a pretty small difference, well in line with the impact of having the first baseman holding a runner on, etc.
Minor league fun facts on El Sid:
August 21, 1981: Strikes out 21 batters in Rookie ball.
April 24, 1982: Pitches a no-hitter in high A ball (Fla State League), whiffing 16.
May 14, 1982: Again fans 21.
June 8, 1982: Pitches his second no-hitter of the year, beating Ft. Lauderdale 1-0, while striking out 16. Still 4 months short of his 20th birthday, Sid is promoted to AAA Albuquerque of the Pacific Coast League.
December 8, 1983: Dodgers send pitching prospect Sid Fernandez and SS Ross Jones to the Mets in exchange for utility players Carlos Diaz and Bob Bailor. Apparently they were more scared by his weight than impressed by his 12.55 K/9 over 3 minor league seasons.
June 8, 1982: Pitches his second no-hitter of the year, beating Ft. Lauderdale 1-0, while striking out 16. Still 4 months short of his 20th birthday, Sid is promoted to AAA Albuquerque of the Pacific Coast League.
December 8, 1983: Dodgers send pitching prospect Sid Fernandez and SS Ross Jones to the Mets in exchange for utility players Carlos Diaz and Bob Bailor. Apparently they were more scared by his weight than impressed by his 12.55 K/9 over 3 minor league seasons.
And, my personal favorite:
December 8, 1983: Dodgers send pitching prospect Sid Fernandez and SS Ross Jones to the Mets in exchange for utility players Carlos Diaz and Bob Bailor. (I tried to link these guys’ stats, but my posts kept vanishing. Suffice to say, they contributed next to nothing.)
Apparently the Dodgers were more scared by Sid’s weight than impressed by his 12.55 K/9 over 3 minor league seasons.
Nice essay, and excellent topic
surperb. thanks for read.