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November 21, 2006

The Week in Geek: Lemons into Lemonade

Scribbled by: Eric Simon @ 1:17 am | Filed under: Articles

Two seasons ago Omar Minaya made a splash in his first offseason with the Mets by signing the best free agent pitcher and position player available. Last offseason he turned heads by acquiring two All-Stars via trades from the fire-salin’ Florida Marlins. In a free agent marketplace where a good-but-not-great 31-year-old second baseman-turned-left fielder can garner a reported eight-year deal and a centerfielder with a good glove and little else can get a king’s ransom in la-la land, Minaya may have done the only rational thing in such an awkwardly-irrational world.

In signing Moises Alou to a one-year, $8.5 million deal, Minaya has played his hand and this seller’s market to perfection. He offered Alou the opportunity to play for a championship on the biggest stage in sport, and in doing so he secured the Mets a left fielder, a potent right-handed bat, and a good clubhouse fit in a low-risk, high-reward move that doesn’t cripple the Mets this year or in years to come.

The worst-case scenario in signing Alou is that he completely breaks down physically and ends up missing much or all of the season. After all, Alou is 40 years old and has only played in 221 games over the past two seasons. In the event that he isn’t healthy enough to contribute or is struck down by some urine-borne debilitating virus, the Mets have only to swallow the remainder of his guaranteed $8.5 million samoleans and they can rid themselves of him entirely. Unlike terrible signings of the past regime like Roger Cedeno and Mo Vaughn, the Mets have in no way mortgaged current or future flexibility — payroll or otherwise. There will be no albatross contract here.

The worst that can happen isn’t really that bad at all, particularly for a team with the financial whizz-bang of the Mets. If Alfonso Soriano gets hurt next season and can’t play out his contract, the Cubs will be on the hook for an awful lot of money for an awful long time. In fact, if both players are healthy in 2007, the Mets might even have the better of the two. Here’s what both players have done since the start of the 2005 season:

            PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   AB/HR
-------------------------------------------
Alou       868   .312   .379   .541   18.83 (Age 38-39)
Soriano   1410   .273   .331   .536   15.66 (Age 29-30)

The key difference is health, as Soriano has never missed significant time due to injury in his career whereas Alou has missed a good share of time. When healthy, Moises Alou has actually been a better hitter than Soriano, and now that they are both likely destined for corner outfield spots (it is rumored that Soriano might play center next year), it’s not clear that the Mets won’t have the better player in 2007. Over the past two seasons, Aloy has basically dominated Soriano at the plate, besting him substantially in batting average and on-base percentage, while even holding a slight edge in slugging. Oh, and he was nine years older to boot.

For once, I’m actually inclined to agree with Buster Olney, who had this to say as the Mets stood on the precipice of signing Alou:

He could be the Frank Thomas of 2007, batting in the middle of what should be an incredibly powerful lineup, and from this Mets point of view, he requires only a one-year obligation, rather than a long-term deal. Relatively low risk, potentially high reward; can’t get much better than that. He flat-out kills left-handed pitching, which probably means that he’ll hit between Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado and force opposing managers to make difficult choices with their relievers late in games.

The Mets showed a susceptibility to left-handed pitching last season, and replacing Cliff Floyd with Alou swings the balance rightward a great deal. It’s not yet clear where Willie Randolph intends to bat Alou, though I think Olney’s assertion that he will be bookended by Carloses Beltran and Delgado is an accurate one. He might be wise to move Paul Lo Duca down to the six hole and slide Beltran up to second to make room for Alou in the three-hole. To be clear, I’m not advocating Beltran’s upward shift because I think he’ll somehow be more comfortable there. I think he put to rest last season all suggestions that he isn’t a good fit to bad third. Rather, I think Lo Duca is likely to fall off substantially from his surprisingly productive 2006 season and his lack of patience and dearth of speed are better suited to hit later in the lineup.

Those are decisions for another day, though. Right now I can say, completely free of any Mets apologism, that the Alou signing is a terrific one. It was a smart business move, and a smart baseball one at that. I don’t have otherworldly expectations of Alou, though I am confident that with health he will bring some right-handed punch to the Mets’ lineup. Known for making a big splash during the hot stove season, Omar Minaya signed a player who will help the club in 2007 while leaving his options open for 2008 and beyond when the free agent pool is likely to have more star players and less fetid peewater.

Eric Simon has far too much time on his hands. He sleeps upside-down, keeps people as pets, and can be found on the internets at Amazin' Avenue or bothered directly at eric@metsgeek.com.

119 Responses to “The Week in Geek: Lemons into Lemonade”

Pages: « 1 [2]

Comment posted by Lister/Ahoy Polloi on November 21, 2006 at 11:08 am (#171888)
I’m just going to go with “bad luck.”

He certainly did Willie Mays Hayes a lot of balls to the edge of the warning track in left throughout the second half. Good swings, good timing, just not the sweetspot. How many times did he hit one that made me instantly think GONE only to have it caught in left-center near the track…
Comment posted by metswin2007 on November 21, 2006 at 11:08 am (#171889)
The one thing I didnt like so much, and it was not Willies fault, was that we had the same line-up day in and day out. We were forced due to injury, and we were a very heavy lefty team. Now we have a nice mixture and if someone is struggling or someone is hot, you can mix and match in the playoffs.
Comment posted by The Deputy on November 21, 2006 at 11:10 am (#171890)
I think Milledge is the obvious choice for AAA.

I care much more about Milledge getting steady playing time and ABs and he’s just not gonna get that at the ML level, he’d be lucky to get a start a week if that.

i think johnson should be our 5th OF
Comment posted by Excellence of Execution on November 21, 2006 at 11:11 am (#171892)
An absolutely fair point. But…

EoE, what do you think of my assertion that PLD’s value plummets out of the 2 hole (he becomes just an ordinary .320 #8 guy), whereas his outs can be more productive in the 2 hole while allowing Reyes to wreak havoc, particularly since he is such a great contact hitter. DW is going to be protected either way, either by Beltran or Alou, so I think his production will remain the same. Green is going to bat behind Alou either way.

I don’t know if his value plummets if he is hitting at the bottom of the order, obviously it is not as high batting lower in the order, but he cand do similar thing just with the heart of the order on base. You also have to take into account that putting someone else in the 2 spot means the line-up can be more consistent since PLD will miss about 40 games a year and the lineup will be changed those times.

Im not saying u stay put and complacent. If u can upgrade a team, u do so. But say we take the current lineup construction…..and then we swap DW and PLD spots in the lineup…..im not so sure it would make a significant difference to be honest….maybe a couple runs throughout the entire season.

Exactly and someone else batting 2 specifically DW improves the team. I don’t think you swap I think PLD should be dropped down to 7 or 8 in the line-up. Those couple of runs can be important especially in certain games.
Comment posted by CubanB on November 21, 2006 at 11:12 am (#171894)
When D Wright regains his form he and a healthy Moises will be lefty assasins. I love it.
Comment posted by Jessica on November 21, 2006 at 11:12 am (#171895)
I agree Dep. Milledge still needs more development in the minor leagues (not surprising, considering his age).
Comment posted by john on November 21, 2006 at 11:13 am (#171896)
Exactly and someone else batting 2 specifically DW improves the team. I don’t think you swap I think PLD should be dropped down to 7 or 8 in the line-up. Those couple of runs can be important especially in certain games.

If it is a couple runs but honestly im not so sure we dont already have the optimal batting lineup.
Comment posted by The Deputy on November 21, 2006 at 11:14 am (#171897)
there’s no guarantee moving DW up to the 2 hole improves the lineup. It also means green bats 6th most likely as opposed to Alou or DW in that hole.

there’s no telling how it would all play out
Comment posted by Danny on November 21, 2006 at 11:14 am (#171899)
By the way Jessica, loved your K-Fed line at the end of your last post on your blog. Hysterical.

For those who don’t frequent, I highly recommend Jessica’s blog. Click on her name. It’s very well done.
Comment posted by The Deputy on November 21, 2006 at 11:15 am (#171900)
danny i like your comment on jess’s blog where you call milledge a 2-year old, typo or hidden meaning? hmmmmmm ;)
Comment posted by Danny on November 21, 2006 at 11:16 am (#171901)
danny i like your comment on jess’s blog where you call milledge a 2-year old, typo or hidden meaning? hmmmmmm ;)

HA. Yeah, it was probably a Freudian slip. Sometimes his maturity level does seem to mirror that!
Comment posted by The Deputy on November 21, 2006 at 11:24 am (#171906)
lol danny, no doubt. I had a pretty funny post by baby milledge, but i decided to nix it
Comment posted by Jessica on November 21, 2006 at 11:25 am (#171908)
Awww thanks, Danny.

I cracked up when I saw the “2 year old” comment. Hmm, maybe Milledge’s cross necklace that the press made such a big deal over was really his pacifier! ;-)
Comment posted by CubanB on November 21, 2006 at 11:32 am (#171911)
Chicago (weekend of August 4): I’ve always wanted to go to Wrigley Field - it’s a baseball institution. Now that JetBlue will be starting service from JFK to O’Hare, maybe my parents will finally agree to it.

The good thing about this trip is that the Mets will be playing the Brew crew right before the Cubs series. We are thinking about flying into Chicago and rent a car with a few buddies for a 1 or 2 day trip up to Milwaukee then return to Chi town for some north side action.
Comment posted by bcuster on November 21, 2006 at 12:12 pm (#171920)
if you are in Chicago; i recommend a side trip to South Bend (a little less than 100 miles away); it is well worth your time
Comment posted by john on November 21, 2006 at 12:34 pm (#171931)
haha im listening online to the FAN and they are auctioning things off…..anyways i think the met pack is around 3000……they can choose the game but it has to be in april or may and cant be opening day……..heh if someone is gonna pay 3000 i think they should be able to pick ANY game lol.
Comment posted by benny blanco from da Bronx on November 21, 2006 at 1:09 pm (#171946)
The keys to signings like these are expectations.
IN San Francisco, Alou was supposed to be the 3rd and 4th hitter, a big part of the lineup to protect Bonds.
Now, for the Mets, Alou is here to protect Wright… batting 6th! that’s excellent.

And if he gets hurt its not too bad because we have nice depth with Endy, B-Jo, Lastings, Gomez, and depending on what happens with 2nd base, even Zorro.
Comment posted by zubin in ga on November 22, 2006 at 12:11 am (#172908)
This should be the lineup:

vs. RHP
1. Reyes
2. Wright
3. Beltran
4. Delgado
5. Alou
6. Green
7. Lo Duca
8. Valentin

vs. LHP
1. Reyes
2. Beltran (less power vs LHP, so Reyes can run, but still good OBP)
3. Wright
4. Alou (LHP masher)
5. Delgado
6. Lo Duca (much better vs LHP, could bat 5th but would bruise Delgado’s vagi…I mean ego)
7. Somebody other than Green
8. Somebody other than Valentin

LOVE the Alou signing…EXACTLY what this team needed (other than SP of course). I believe that this is Omar’s best piece of “GMing” yet, creativity wise, along with trading for Sanchez.

I think the whole “make the manager make tough decisions” thing is overrated. It’s more important to have the best lineup 3 times through rather than put out a worse lineup just so the opposing manager has to change pitchers in the last time through the order.
Comment posted by zubin in ga on November 22, 2006 at 12:22 am (#172914)
The real best lineup would be this I think:

vs. RHP

1. Wright
2. Beltran
3. Delgado
4. Reyes
5. Alou
…(rest same)

vs. LHP

1. Beltran
2. Wright
3. Alou
4. Reyes
5. Lo Duca
6. Delgado
…

I know this would never happen, but this way Reyes would never have to worry about getting CS with a power hitter at bat. He usually doesn’t try to steal with Beltran/Delgado at bat, but mostly with Lo Duca or Wright hitting. This way he could run every single time if he wanted to and would fully utilize his speed (you don’t have to be fast to score on a homerun), and he has pretty good power (.487 SLG is not too shabby). Stats say that batting the highest OBPs at the top of the lineup is best, and Reyes has YET to catch Wright and Beltran in that dept…