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October 13, 2006
  
Dissecting Carpenter
by: Eric Simon on Oct 13, 2006 12:56 AM | Filed under: Articles

Last night was a huge win for the Mets in a game that they really had to have. A lot of that is because Chris Carpenter is going for the Cardinals tonight. Equally important are that they were coming off of a four day layoff, they were playing at home, and just the fact that it was the first game of the series and 1-0 looks a whole lot nicer than 0-1. That said, the Mets could very easily have lost this game. Carlos Beltran hit a moon shot off of Jeff Weaver to account for the only two runs of the game and the Mets’ pitching and defense took care of the rest. Beltran had his share of struggles at home during the season, but he hit three of the biggest homeruns of the season at Shea for this club and, as was mentioned a hundred times during and after the game, he has had terrific success against the Cardinals, especially in the postseason.

As for Carpenter, things are not always what they seem. The guy is an oustanding pitcher, the best starter in this series by a good ways and probably the best pitcher in the National League this season. Having said that, Carpenter has some interesting splits that could work to the Mets’ advantage. As much as anything, Carpenter is significantly more effective against right-handed batters — of which the Mets have two in their starting lineup — than he is against lefties — of which, counting switch-hitters, the Mets count six among their starters.

Chris Carpenter, 2006

           AB    BAA   OBP   SLG
--------------------------------
vs RHB    462   .210  .252  .323
vs LHB    365   .266  .314  .416
--------------------------------

Chris Carpenter, 2003-2005

           AB    BAA   OBP   SLG
--------------------------------
vs RHB   1295   .211  .247  .306
vs LHB   1108   .266  .313  .439
--------------------------------

Those are pretty significant platoon splits, and 2006 was very consistent with his prior three seasons. We knew coming into this series that the Cardinals would feature exclusively right-handed starting pitchers and, like most righties, Carpenter has his issues against left-handed batters.

Another factor that potentially favors the Mets is that Carpenter, like many pitchers, is a lot more comfortable playing at home in front of his own fans. At least, that’s what the numbers are telling me. His home/road splits for this year in particular are dramatic to say the least.

Chris Carpenter, 2006

         IP    ERA    BAA    K/9    BB/9    HR/9
------------------------------------------------
Home   124.0  1.81   .214   6.60    1.60    0.51
Away    97.2  4.70   .260   8.57    1.94    1.39
------------------------------------------------

Other than his strikeout rate, everything is much, much worse when Carpenter pitches on the road. He gives up many more hits, more walks, and well over twice as many homeruns. There’s a lot of noise in just a single year of data, so that’s why three year splits are often much more reliable.

Chris Carpenter, 2003-2005

         IP    ERA    BAA    K/9    BB/9    HR/9
------------------------------------------------
Home   336.0  2.38   .226   7.71    1.88    0.62
Away   309.1  3.87   .246   7.59    1.80    1.16
------------------------------------------------

Better, but still not good news for Carp. His walk and strikeout rates have moved back towards their midpoint, but his homeruns are still way up when he has been away from home.

With these two factors working in the Mets’ favor, coupled with the fact that they’re opposing Carpenter with a better starting pitcher than they would have otherwise (John Maine vs Steve Trachsel), Wednesday’s rainout may wind up being to the Mets’ advantage after all.


269 Responses to “Dissecting Carpenter”

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  1. Comment posted by Sean Preston Spears-Federline on October 13, 2006 at 2:11 pm (#130937)

    Popo Zao Popo Zao!

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  3. Comment posted by chris in ga on October 13, 2006 at 2:12 pm (#130938)

    Later Dpty. I’m out till later too.

  4. Comment posted by Suri Cruise on October 13, 2006 at 2:14 pm (#130939)

    bah bah boo boo?

    (gobbles antidepressants cached in father’s bathroom cabinet)

  5. Comment posted by Lister/Ahoy Polloi on October 13, 2006 at 2:14 pm (#130940)

    golly i am BORED

  6. Comment posted by sheadenizen on October 13, 2006 at 2:16 pm (#130941)

    Check in when I get back from the game. Have fun here tonight and think good thoughts! Good karma, please!
    Hope they score a ton of runs, so I can jump up and down and stay warm!
    Let’s Go Mets!

  7. Gravatar
  8. Comment posted by Bryan in Albany on October 13, 2006 at 2:18 pm (#130943)

    M&MD are getting on the Mets about the songs they use during a game. Complaining that Sweet Caroline is Red Sox song and starting with the Enter Sandman crap again! Saying they steal everything and need their own identity.

    Why do I listen to these guys?

  9. Comment posted by FMF on October 13, 2006 at 2:20 pm (#130944)

    M&MD are getting on the Mets about the songs they use during a game. Complaining that Sweet Caroline is Red Sox song and starting with the Enter Sandman crap again! Saying they steal everything and need their own identity.

    Why do I listen to these guys?

    Because they have nothing else to complain about today. You know they were hoping the Mets would lose so they could jump on that. They are asses.

    I listen because I have 2 hours to kill before I leave work and I’m bored right now.

  10. Comment posted by Michael Oliver on October 13, 2006 at 2:25 pm (#130946)

    Too much to read, but in response to Willie using Mota over Heilman…with five games in five days, Willie might be leaving it open to use Heilman as the closer in one of the spots since Billy would be stretching it going four in a row or four of five if there were four save situations. It wouldn’t suprise me if Heilman did get a save this series. Of course, you cross that bridge when you get there and use everything you have to win that night, but it could be argued that Mota has been their best set-up guy since they got him so he really wasn’t taking that much of a chance.

  11. Comment posted by FMF on October 13, 2006 at 2:25 pm (#130947)

    So does anyone know who the guys wearing fake mustaches and holding Stache signs were? I saw them and immediately thought of the Geek. I also loved the guys running around with the JOSE JOSE JOSE sign, that was pretty cool.

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  13. Comment posted by Wdwrkr35 on October 13, 2006 at 2:53 pm (#130954)

    im watching billiard rather then M&MD which in reality is yankee tv

  14. Comment posted by Keith Hernandez’s Porn Stash on October 13, 2006 at 2:56 pm (#130955)

    Conspiracy theory: Willie’s saving Heilman for Game 4 as a spot-starter, or to long relieve for Perez if he gets banged up early. Remember, Heilman was debated as a starter for the first half of the season, he really wanted to be in the rotation, and last year as a starter he thru not one but 2 1-hit shutouts. If we can save him, why not throw him in game 4 instead of perez?

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  16. Comment posted by Ellis Dee on October 13, 2006 at 3:05 pm (#130956)

    I would rather go back-to-back Oliver’s (Darren & Perez - not Michael) in games 4 and 5. Heilman hasn’t thrown more than 2 innings in a long time so his arm isn’t going to be stretched out. Plus what starting pitcher of ours can we reasonably rely on to go more than 6 innings over the next 4 days? I think were going to need him in the pen.

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  18. Comment posted by Ellis Dee on October 13, 2006 at 3:11 pm (#130957)

    So I think either Darren O. or Glav for game 5. It all depends on what happens in the series before that. If we’re up 3-1 it might make sense to save TG for game 6 on full rest.

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  20. Comment posted by Ellis Dee on October 13, 2006 at 3:15 pm (#130958)

    I don’t think it makes sense to hold him off in these games if we need him when we don’t know what the situation’s going to be then. There could be another rainout and Tommy goes on full rest in game 5, or we could sweep and not even have to play game 5.

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  22. Comment posted by Wdwrkr35 on October 13, 2006 at 3:16 pm (#130959)

    Heilman might have to pitch 2 innings tonight if Maine doesnt get past the 5th. Heilman will not start this year. Our bullpen is our strenght why would we mess with that?

  23. Comment posted by Michael Oliver on October 13, 2006 at 3:36 pm (#130961)

    Ellis Dee, you don’t want me throwing maxium effort, 65 mph fastballs for the Mets in the playoffs?

  24. Comment posted by Ynot on October 13, 2006 at 3:39 pm (#130962)

    No Heilman as a starter or D Oliver . Glavine will be game 5 for sure. If not, Maybe El Duque will appear somehow form the great beyond…..

  25. Gravatar
  26. Comment posted by Wdwrkr35 on October 13, 2006 at 3:40 pm (#130963)

    A rainout in StL will change everything :-)

  27. Comment posted by Keith Hernandez’s Porn Stash on October 13, 2006 at 3:41 pm (#130964)

    Our bullpen is our strenght why would we mess with that?

    b/c we lost our best two starters is why. with the rainout, we can’t avoid starting perez and williams isn’t on the roster. i don’t trust perez and he appears the only choice now. If mota can spell heilman, the bullpen is still out strength and why not try it with a guy we trust rather than a wildcard? we all debated earlier in the year that heilman could be a good starter, and many posters argued for him to be given a shot instead of lima, etc..

    i agree starting a guy who has only thrown in relief all year is different, but if his arm can do it (perhaps he can’t, but he’s a young guy), why not?

  28. Comment posted by JH31 on October 13, 2006 at 3:41 pm (#130966)

    Don’t have much time to chat, but due to unforeseen events (well, not really), I happen to have an extra Upper Deck Box ticket. The cost of the ticket is $125, if anyone is interested. I’ll be there and so will Kevin (he posts here every once in a while). I know this is last minute, just thought I’d give it a shot..ie

  29. Gravatar
  30. Comment posted by Wdwrkr35 on October 13, 2006 at 3:44 pm (#130967)

    Heilman would tire out after 3 ip, his arm strenght would not hold up after pitching 1 inning a game, 3 times a week for the whole year

  31. Comment posted by Lister/Ahoy Polloi on October 13, 2006 at 3:45 pm (#130968)

    Every week, the same garbage about Heilman starting since April.

    LET IT GO MAN IT’S 100% NOT GOING TO HAPPEN I PROMISE YOU

  32. Gravatar
  33. Comment posted by Wdwrkr35 on October 13, 2006 at 3:46 pm (#130969)

    I would sooner pitch Darren oliver over Heilman as a Starter. Willie has said Perez will get a start, we have to live with it. Hopefully we are up 3-0 or 2-1 when he does

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  35. Comment posted by Wdwrkr35 on October 13, 2006 at 3:47 pm (#130970)

    think maybe porn stache is brinacuster? ;-)

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  37. Comment posted by Wdwrkr35 on October 13, 2006 at 3:50 pm (#130971)

    Well im out, enjoy the game tonight folks, Beat carpenter!!! Lets go Mets!!!!

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  39. Comment posted by Bryan in Albany on October 13, 2006 at 3:51 pm (#130972)

    I would sooner pitch Darren oliver over Heilman as a Starter.

    Is it too late to add Derek Bell to the roster? What about Jose Canseco? I hear he has a nasty knuckleball!

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  41. Comment posted by Bryan in Albany on October 13, 2006 at 3:53 pm (#130973)

    Don’t have much time to chat, but due to unforeseen events (well, not really), I happen to have an extra Upper Deck Box ticket. The cost of the ticket is $125, if anyone is interested. I’ll be there and so will Kevin (he posts here every once in a while). I know this is last minute, just thought I’d give it a shot..

    If not for the drive from Albany (at least 3 hours and with traffic and parking who knows) and my best friend’s birthday party tonight I would definitely take you up on this! Stupid friends!

  42. Comment posted by udamnwright on October 13, 2006 at 3:56 pm (#130974)

    4 more hours until game time. Have fun at the game for those going.

    Come back mdog.

  43. Comment posted by briancuster on October 13, 2006 at 3:58 pm (#130975)

    put “heilman starting for the mets” in the category of “things that will never happen” willomar has ben quite clear about this; even i have come to accept this…

  44. Comment posted by Jessica on October 13, 2006 at 4:01 pm (#130976)

    A’s-Tigers coming up soon. They must be freezing their asses off in Detroit.

  45. Comment posted by KHPS on October 13, 2006 at 4:06 pm (#130977)

    put “heilman starting for the mets” in the category of “things that will never happen” willomar has ben quite clear about this; even i have come to accept this…

    ok, ok, fine. I too am resigned to the reality; just trying to hope against hope we don’t have to go with perez in game 4.

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  47. Comment posted by Bryan in Albany on October 13, 2006 at 4:10 pm (#130978)

    put “heilman starting for the mets” in the category of “things that will never happen” willomar has ben quite clear about this; even i have come to accept this…

    Definitely not this year, but I think they’ll stretch him out again this winter. If they sign Mota and Sanchez comes back plus Padilla will be healthy again they won’t need Heilman in the bullpen. That said, they would probably trade him first, so you’re probably right about him never starting for the Mets… I guess I have added nothing to this conversation so I will stop typing now…

  48. Comment posted by Jessica on October 13, 2006 at 4:14 pm (#130979)

    Jeff Daniels…singing…I hate Fox.

  49. Gravatar
  50. Comment posted by Ellis Dee on October 13, 2006 at 4:15 pm (#130980)

    Ellis Dee, you don’t want me throwing maxium effort, 65 mph fastballs for the Mets in the playoffs?

    LOL, well you might be an option with that blazing fastball if you were on the roster! Are you a lefty? Maybe Willie could use you in the WS.

  51. Comment posted by udamnwright on October 13, 2006 at 4:18 pm (#130981)

    Jeanie Z just stole
    The Maine Event line.

    Bitch

  52. Comment posted by udamnwright on October 13, 2006 at 4:21 pm (#130982)

    Fox is so annoying and stupid.

  53. Comment posted by Jessica on October 13, 2006 at 4:24 pm (#130983)

    I love how the pre-game show for the ALCS was all about whether the Mets should pitch to Pujols in the game that’s starting 4 hours from now. Oh, and Eric Byrnes needs to go somewhere where I don’t have to see or hear him.

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  55. Comment posted by Bryan in Albany on October 13, 2006 at 4:24 pm (#130984)

    Fox is so annoying and stupid.

    I hope they never get the baseball contract again (hopefully this contract is up soon)! While the announcers on ESPN aren’t great, the only announcers the Fox people are better then are the YES nerds.

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  57. Comment posted by Ellis Dee on October 13, 2006 at 4:25 pm (#130985)

    Jeff Daniels…singing…I hate Fox.

    Was that supposed to read Jeff Daniels singing “I hate Fox”.
    A new song?

  58. Gravatar
  59. Comment posted by pickles on October 13, 2006 at 4:26 pm (#130986)

    Doomsday is everyday
    WHen Green plays right
    Mets should of signed a certain pitcher on August 31st
    Helped Pitch Arizona to a championship
    And won a gold medal too.
    Omar dropped the ball
    Should of signed Finch
    oh no! not Sidd
    but Jennie

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  61. Comment posted by 86Forever on October 13, 2006 at 4:26 pm (#130987)

    The first place Eric Byrnes needs to go is a hair stylist. Then a speech therapist. And then media training so he doesn’t have the facial expressions of a Hanoi Hilton visitor.

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  63. Comment posted by chris in ga on October 13, 2006 at 4:28 pm (#130988)

    Oh, and Eric Byrnes needs to go somewhere where I don’t have to see or hear him.

    Scheduled on a 10:30 red eye to parts unknown

  64. Comment posted by Jessica on October 13, 2006 at 4:28 pm (#130989)

    Was that supposed to read Jeff Daniels singing “I hate Fox”.
    A new song?

    Sadly, Fox showed a video of Daniels singing a song called “Tiger Fan Blues,” attempting to present it to the audience as a special treat - the way cats present dead rodents to their owners.

  65. Comment posted by udamnwright on October 13, 2006 at 4:28 pm (#130990)

    Doomsday is everyday
    WHen Green plays right
    Mets should of signed a certain pitcher on August 31st
    Helped Pitch Arizona to a championship
    And won a gold medal too.
    Omar dropped the ball
    Should of signed Finch
    oh no! not Sidd
    but Jennie

    She is easy on the eyes pickles :)

  66. Gravatar
  67. Comment posted by Tom Emanski on October 13, 2006 at 4:30 pm (#130991)

    Fox should hire me.

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  69. Comment posted by pickles on October 13, 2006 at 4:31 pm (#130992)

    She is easy on the eyes pickles :)

    Jennie Finch could dominate
    Her Husband Casey was teammates with Green in Arizona
    I don’t like Green
    thus I don’t like Casey either

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  71. Comment posted by 86Forever on October 13, 2006 at 4:33 pm (#130993)

    Does anyone else think Rogers had his Warhol moment in the ALDS and is ripe for a whippin’ today?

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  73. Comment posted by Ellis Dee on October 13, 2006 at 4:34 pm (#130994)

    I have the solution for the game 5 starter: AHern for 3 followed by D. Oliver for 3. AHern can bring it!

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  75. Comment posted by Bryan in Albany on October 13, 2006 at 4:35 pm (#130995)

    I don’t like Green

    Did Green take your mother out to a nice seafood dinner and NEVER call her again? This hatred is so deep!

  76. Comment posted by Jessica on October 13, 2006 at 4:35 pm (#130996)

    The leadoff-hitting catcher just got an infield hit. Seriously.

    HOLY S**T, great play by Inge (aka the Human Webgem)!

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  78. Comment posted by Bryan in Albany on October 13, 2006 at 4:36 pm (#130997)

    Did Thom B. just say, “this snowcone wouldn’t have melted today?”

    What? Who says that? These guys are terrible!

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  80. Comment posted by 86Forever on October 13, 2006 at 4:37 pm (#130998)

    The Big Hurt with a Big Bruise on a Big Thigh

  81. Comment posted by Jessica on October 13, 2006 at 4:37 pm (#130999)

    Rogers just hit Frank Thomas in the leg on 0-2. Yowza.

  82. Comment posted by Eddie Glynn on October 13, 2006 at 4:38 pm (#131000)

    Pretty obvious that the gambler sold his soul for that start against the yankmees. That’s a sacrifice I’m willing to make however.

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  84. Comment posted by 86Forever on October 13, 2006 at 4:38 pm (#131001)

    Go Jay Payton - pay back Rogers for wrecking your ‘99 post season (and ours).

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  86. Comment posted by pickles on October 13, 2006 at 4:38 pm (#131002)

    Did Green take your mother out to a nice seafood dinner and NEVER call her again?

    I hate Green
    Let me count the ways
    number 1
    Evan Maclane ruled all
    number 2
    Evan Maclane someday will be the most dominent Loogy in the league
    number 3
    SHawn Green is no Preston Wilson
    number 4
    Preston Wilson wouldn’t of cost us Evan Maclane
    and number 5
    SHawn Green thinks he’s better than me
    and he isn’t

    Pickles

  87. Comment posted by Jessica on October 13, 2006 at 4:43 pm (#131003)

    Wow, Harden pretty much bounced the first 4 pitches in the dirt.

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  89. Comment posted by 86Forever on October 13, 2006 at 4:45 pm (#131004)

    Why I want to A’s to win:

    This has been payback year. Think about all our rivals, past and present. Yankees? Gone. Braves? Gone. Cardinals? Dear God, I pray soon to be gone. So who’s left?

    I remember crying my eyes out as a small child. Mets up 3 games to 2. Going back to Oakland, with Seaver starting game 6, and a hot Matlack game 7. Reggie and company proceeded to dance all over us. Y’all are probably too young to remember - but I won’t forget. This is a Kill Bill year. The A’s are next.

    That said, it ain’t lookin like we’re gonna get them. First and third for the Tigers, no one out.

  90. Comment posted by Jessica on October 13, 2006 at 4:46 pm (#131005)

    Is Polanco wearing a scarf? Not that I blame him one bit.

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  92. Comment posted by 86Forever on October 13, 2006 at 4:47 pm (#131006)

    What the hell is Polanco wearing? He looks like Bazooka Joe. Has there been som sort of plutonium fallout in the Detroit area?

  93. Comment posted by Jessica on October 13, 2006 at 4:49 pm (#131007)

    Oakland’s decision to pick Harden over Haren for Game 3 isn’t looking so good right now.

  94. Gravatar
  95. Comment posted by 86Forever on October 13, 2006 at 4:51 pm (#131008)

    We need an A’s win ….we need this series to go looooooong.

  96. Comment posted by udamnwright on October 13, 2006 at 5:02 pm (#131009)

    From the files of same old, same old we have this. Not about baseball but it makes me laugh.

  97. Comment posted by Jessica on October 13, 2006 at 5:02 pm (#131010)

    I hope that some team hires Piniella to manage just so nobody will have to endure him in the broadcast booth next year.

    And what the f**k is Lyons talking about?

  98. Comment posted by Jessica on October 13, 2006 at 5:03 pm (#131011)

    Oh goody, more T.O. news to be dissected on Sportscenter.

  99. Gravatar
  100. Comment posted by 86Forever on October 13, 2006 at 5:13 pm (#131016)

    Piniella is surpsingly awful. You would think with his pedigree and reputation, he would be a baseball version of Dick Butkus. Instead, he’s Merlin Olson.

  101. Gravatar
  102. Comment posted by 86Forever on October 13, 2006 at 5:14 pm (#131018)

    I may have had a stroke, but I believe Piniella just told me that when you throw a lot of pitches, you get a high pitch count.

  103. Gravatar
  104. Comment posted by dptydwg420 on October 13, 2006 at 5:14 pm (#131019)

    Game thread is open.

    GO METS.

  105. Comment posted by Jessica on October 13, 2006 at 5:15 pm (#131020)

    Man, Harden is just not finding the strikezone.

    I’m still trying to figure out if Lyons’s response to Lou speaking Spanish was racist or just run of the mill stupid.

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