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August 2, 2006
Tommy Not So Terrific
Many Met fans are worried about Tom Glavine. With his recent struggles, they are worried he will not be the #2 starter the Mets need come playoff time. Using David Pinto’s Day-by-Day Database, we are able to look at the differences between Tom’s first two months, where he looks like an ace, and the last two months, where he has struggled mightly. April and May- 11 games, 2.59 ERA, 73 IP, 58 hits allowed, 7.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9, 1.10 WHIP As you can see, Tom’s stats are down across the board. His walk rate hasn’t fallen off that much, so it isn’t that much of a concern to me. I’m also not that concerned with the massive jump in his hit rate. I expect that to settle somewhere in between the ratios for his first two months (which is a little on the low side) and the last two months (which is outrageously high) because there is no way Tom gives up 93 hits in 67.2 innings again. What does concern me is the K rate and HR rate. While I never expected Tom to strike out guys like he was early in the season, a 4.1 K/9 rate isn’t going to cut it either. Something around (maybe even a little below) 6 per nine innings would be acceptable. As for his HR rate, something about 1 per nine innings would be fine. But what worries about the drop in those two rates is that I feel like he’s not fooling as many hitters, evidenced by the fact that they are not striking out (meaning they put the ball in play) and they are hitting it for more power. In the end, I think Tom will be fine, but seeing an older pitcher go through these types of struggles worries me and I think he will have to make an adjustment or two down to stretch to get back to ace form. I have no idea what those adjustments are, but I have faith Tom and Rick Peterson can figure them out. If you would like to rip apart Jeremy's writing, you can reach him here. He also appreciates any nice comments or questions you might have, but he understands if you would have more fun just tearing into him. 60 Responses to “Tommy Not So Terrific”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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I think, maybe, you send Tom on vacation for a week or two. I’m FAR more interested in watching Pelfrey and Maine pitch than I am Tommy at this point. The rest couldn’t do him any worse than throwing him out to be slaughtered.
Very true. Maybe say he needs to leave for personal problems or something. He could def. use some rest… we dont really need him or pedro that much until playoff time. As long as they are on top of their game come that time, i would like to see them rest.
I left this post on the Mets’ scout forum and I think it should be our plan of attack for our starting roation.
What we need to do is have a rotation of Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine and Brian Bannister. The bullpen can have Billy Wagner, Roberto Hernandez, Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, Chad Bradford, Darren Oliver and Oliver Perez. Glavine and Trachsel should be put on the DL for the next month until the 40 man rosters start with “dead arms” (crappy pitching).
This will give us a chance to rest Glavine and Trachsel who will come back in September and treat it like Spring training and then be ready again by October.
This will also give us a month of seeing what exactly Maine, Pelfrey and Bannister can give us for the postseason along with the fact that Rick Peterson can use this time to fix Oliver Perez’s mechanics and possibly return him to his 2004 form.
Never going to happen but this is what I would do.
Except Tommy is chasing 300 and he’s a gamer, he’s pitching every day, and they need the wins to ensure they get home-field advantage in the NL. All of those projections are based on hope that he’ll revert to first half form. The reality is he’s pushing 40 and was never a strikeout pitcher until April/May came along.
Jeremy’s analyses are great, but once showing the stats, he becomes far more optimistic than me. I only hope, but don’t have a whole lot of confidence, that Glavine will turn things around. Many Geeks suggest that he needs rest. I don’t think that will solve anything. Remember that he sucked in the first half last year and was great the second half and I don’t believe that he was given any long rests in between. Its a real puzzle how he can be so good for several months and so bad for several months before or after that. I think that the hypothesis that he has “reinvented himself” has taken a strong hit. There must be some undected until now small difference in his delivery that makes it difficult or easy to hit him. Anyway, we can only hope that he is the Glavine of the last few months of last year and first two months of this year when October rolls around. I am not so enthusiastic about him coming back next year. If no trades are made, I would like to see a rotation of
Pedro
Heilman
and three of the following four:
Maine
Bannister
Pelfrey
Humber
I am most excited about Humber.
He doesn’t have to strikeout alot of guys when he gets them into 2 strike counts. But he does need to make better pitches in those situations than he has in the past couple of months. I have been surprised by how many decent wqings guys are getting off of him with 2 strike counts. If he begins to hit hit spots on those situations, his numbers will improve. As it is, he has not been able to widen the strike zone on hitters in those moments and is
I’m not as worried about Tom Glavine as I am about Billy Wagner. He seems to have come down with “Armando’s Syndrome”, namely when he’s good he’s awesome but when he’s off (which is more often that it should be) he gets clobbered. Last night, case in point. I don’t know about you, but I would feel very uncertain giving the ball in the ninth inning to Wagner in a playoof situation.
Wagner has blown 5 saves this season I believe. That’s not that bad at all in comparison to the rest of the league. The guys has pitched lights out for a bout 2 months now. I believe he deserves a pass….
I agree re Wagner. I’ve been one of his biggest critics here, but he’s been excellent for a month or so. He’s always had problems with the longball, and he’ll probably blow a game in that manner come October. Except ‘98-’00 Mariano, who hasn’t?
Glavine: Agree with some of the comments above. We *have* to assume he’s ok this year, because to cruise into the post-season hoping that unpolished sub-rookies like Bannister (he of the 14/17 K/BB ratio), Pelfrey (no command at all yet), Humber (who thinks Queens is the name of a gay bar in Norfolk), and Maine (let’s remember The Wolf’s advice to Jles, Jimmy & Vince and stay off our knees for another few weeks), is . . . shall we say a bit delusional.
We NEED 6 IP/3 ER from Tommy Strikezone. So rest him for at least three starts. The man pitched great the second half of last year, and the first two months of this season.
But he’s 40 years old. He needs a rest. His chase to 300 is not the Mets problem, and 3 starts is unlikely to affect homefield.
And . . . I’ve thought about this. I’m not sure being in a position to play the wild card — often the hottest team entering the playoffs — in the shortened first round is a good thing. Plus, the Mets are just as good on the road as at home this year. And Beltran, among a few others, hits much better away.
The main goal is to get Glavine right by October 1. All else is secondary.
As we all know, Glavine is a key to a successful run in the playoffs. THe past month plus has been disconcerting. It is one thing to go winless when the team is not supporting you with runs (ala Pedro), but it is another to blow leads consistently.
Is he tired, not sure. The troubles sort of started after he pitched on short rest. He is a creature of habit, and has stated he hates long breaks. Now, in the case of short rest, he stepped up and asked for the ball, so he obviously had the choice.
Is giving him a rest like Pedro the best course of action, I’m not sure. Part of me thinks yeah, it’s August, let him save “bullets” for the post-season. But at the same time, how wil he react to the layoff? A creature of habit may find it hard to recover.
I’m thinking a skipped start, with some bullpen work with Rick and film work might be the best course of action here, rather than a long break.
I agree with you Ramon. I think part of the problem is going to be with Filthy out, we need to have confidence as fans in the closer. We have enough worries with Hernandez (can he repeat the good of last year) and Heilman (can he bounce back to where he was) than to have Wagner added to the list. Wagner has pitched well of late, he had a bad game. So long as he bounces back from it, we can rest a bit easier.
For whatever reason, it appears that Glavine is pitching not to lose as opposed to pitching to win. In the early part of the season he was going after hitters and challenging them. The last month and a half he appears to be nibbling at the corners. I believe that if he gets aggressive again he’ll be ok.
On Wagner, when I saw that bloop single I felt he was in trouble. Something, and I’m not sure what, did not look right with him. Maybe, since Sanchez went in for surgery yesterday, his head wasn’t completely in the game. In the long run, I think he’ll be ok.
Steve-
He is nibbling, no doubt. But a lot of pitchers (especially vets who know their “stuff” the way you know your own health) nibble when they lose some juice on #1, or think their breaking pitch has lost its bite.
Ed makes good points, and I agree that a long rest followed by a playoff start is dangerous. But I really favor a 2-3 week total shutdown. Bring him back for good after Labor Day.
Tommy just is not putting guys away. He is getting to a lot of 2-strike counts, but then guys are fouling him off, fouling him off… and then as Ramon mentioned, getting good swings on him. It is resulting in not only ineffectiveness, but high pitch counts and Tommy is not getting deep into games anymore either. It doesn’t seem like Tommy is commanding the inside part of the plate. He is missing there, so then he falls back into the whole “throw it to the outside corner” philosophy. You know, the exact philosophy he was getting killed with before he made the adjustment to start throwing inside, since umpires weren’t giving him huge strike zones anymore (thanks QuesTec!)
Tommy is smart, he is proud, and he will work out these kinks.
I just hope it happens before he is wearing a Braves uniform next year.
I would say 1A to that, if not equal, is determining where we are with Pedro – although, ignoring his 1st inning back, it looks encouraging
Did you guys see the updated sub-head to the web site.
Very Nice
He needs to start breaking out his curveball much much more especially on 2 strikes.
He adjusted last year to start attacking the inside of the plate.
Now batters have adjusted to Glavine and are ready for everything he will do and he doesnt have the pure stuff to beat anyone.
I don’t see how he has any chance to succeed w/o his curveball…he just doesnt have pinpoint command he used to.
They are not going to rest Glavine if he is healthy. However, not sure why they pitched him on normal rest Sunday when everyone else is getting extra rest. I know Glavine likes pitching every 4 days but I think an extra day in between starts could do him some good. I’ve pointed this out before. But except for the Pirate start Glavine was effective for the first 5 innings in most of his recent starts except the last two. He defintely was tiring in the 6th inning at about 90 pitches. Besides giving him an extra day of rest in between starts, perhaps pulling him after 90 pitches for the next 3 or 4 starts might also help. You can give him the extra day’s rest by using a 6th starter during the weeks we do not have a day off.
Now that is funny…kudos to the headgeeks.
::raises glass:: Here’s to the fleecing continuing
This may be analysis/paralysis. I think he just made a bad pitch and paid for it. It happens to the best
Yea I can’t kill Wagner on the single, he threw a first pitch slider that should’ve made Olivo look stupid. Oh well, s**t happens/
The marlins jumped all over Billy Wagz, what did it take 3 pitches for them to get 2 runs…crazy.
So does anyone think having Roberto Hernandez back will help Aaron Heilman get his act together, I’m starting to buy into it a little.
BJ Ryan has also blown like 3 of his last 4 save chances I think, so nobody’s perfect.
RoboHernz on Oliver Perez:
For some reason I found this funny.
Hubie, I agree on the pitch count for Glavine. Anybody have an analysis on innings 1-4 and 5-6? The last start in Atlanta I discount because he always seem to have problems there.
Roberto was quoted as saying he can help Heilman, since they got to be close last year. It was in this morning’s Daily News.
420, if that’s the case on Perez, Omar might have just stolen him.
Oh well. I guess Pirates loss is our gain. If this deal turns out being the coup that I hope it can be…we will mark the trade of Xavier Nady for R. Hernandez and Oliver Perez as among the greatest in franchise history up there with the likes of Robert Person for John Olerud and David Cone for for Ed Hearn, Rick Anderson and Mauro Gazzo…
Anyone That Complains That Wagner Has 5 Blown Saves Should Thank The Baseball Gods That It’s Not Derrick Turnbow Tryong To Close For Us With His 8 Blown Saves With 2 Months To Go
It would be nice if Rick can fix him. Glavine is possibly gone at the end of the year. Pedro has 2 years left. Heilman will possibly be traded. Maine, Pelfrey and Bannister are young, and Humber is rehabbing (wuite well so far thankfully). This team needs a bit of depth for the rotation. A guy who had some success in the past is a nice way to start to build it up. I know there are some other names on the farm, but some of them are real young, playing in A or AA, and will need more time. Who knows if the Mets can obtain another vet starter. If this can be an easy fix, it will be a nice cheap way to fill in a hole. Plus, if he does turn it around, it gives Omar the ability to trade another young guy to fill in a hole elsewhere if need be.
Does anyone know when Rick’s contract is up? I thought I read somewhere it was at the end of this season.
This, unfortunately, is exactly what I was worried about with Glavine and why I was urging us not to put too much faith in his fast start. Baseball is such a game of adjustments, but too often fans – and broadcasters – forget that adjustments are a two-way street.
Since spring training, we’ve been hearing about how Glavine “reinvented himself” at last year’s ASB. He threw inside for the first time in his career, began throwing a curve. And it worked. Hitters who went off the old scouting report (fastball away/change up away) and were leaning over the plate could suddenly be fanned on inside fastballs – even when the “heat” rarely topped 87. Hitters would be caught looking or fishing at balls they didn’t expect to curve. Hits were down, K’s were way up. And Glavine was suddenly an “elite” pitcher again.
Unfortunately, the league is now adjusting to Glavine’s adjustments. His K’s are way down, his hits allowed are way up and the spike in home runs is further indication that hitters are not being fooled anymore. Like a rookie hitter who tears the league up until pitchers figure out he can’t hit sliders away, the ball is back in Glavine’s court. Unfortunately he’s 40, and there aren’t many other adjustments he can easily make. He’s not suddenly going to throw 93 or pick up a splitter. He’s still a solid pitcher – but at this point in his career, he may just no longer be in that elite class. I hope he proves me wrong. But personally, I doubt we’ll ever see the Glavine of April and May again.
You may be right. Maybe he should undo the adjustments to keep opponents honest :)
Someone above wrote that he seems to be nibbling. That might be the case. The question is, is that his fault, or is it the fault of the catcher? If Lo Duca is calling the pitches, and Tommy is not shaking him off, then maybe they ought to change the gameplan. If he is shaking Paul off, well then he has to stop.
Now we need them to update the definition of geek as it appears in the top left of the page.
From Dictionary.com
“A carnival performer whose show consists of bizarre acts, such as biting the head off a live chicken.”
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/geek
That is some funny shit.
Of course my requested change would meant he required reading for this site go from:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0761139958/sr=1-1/qid=1154531966/ref=pd_bbs_1/103-0320724-5583031?ie=UTF8&s=books
to:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0375713344/sr=1-1/qid=1154531790/ref=pd_bbs_1/103-0320724-5583031?ie=UTF8&s=books
Too funny Brian :)
I think we should change it
Eddie C on with Beningo
Dirty done. Surgery. Torn ligaments as well. Sad.
Yea. they said Dirty was in so much pain they opted for immediate surgery instead of wait n see.
man I feel so bad for him and am honestly happy as hell he’s alive and his shoulder is all thats messed up. it couldve been much worse
i just hope he’s as filthy as ever in 2007.
What’s his contract situation?
he signed a 1-year deal but i think he’s still in arbitration years.
he’s not going anywhere.
http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=635
Doesn’t look like he’ll be a free agent soon
Brian - you are on today my friend.
Funny stuff.
anyone see this? no defection…
“I laughed when I saw those reports, because I was home as soon as we finished playing,” Gourriel told ESPNdeportes.com via telephone from his home in Sancti Spiritus in southeast Cuba.
Interesting review of the trade deadline.
http://www.uniwatchblog.com/2006/08/01/lets-make-a-deal/
The A-Rod stuff is great - he can’t even be a Mets fan properly.
By the way, he has a blog.
Give Tommy a month long sabbatical like Pedro!
Galvine would never agree to go on the DL if he isn’t hurt. The only reason he is still playing is to try to get to 300 wins. He’s not going to voluntarily miss any starts. The best hope is, as someone already suggested, to limit his pitch count to something in the 90 range. The problem is that puts a lot of strain on the bullpen. maybe they can wait til Sept. when rosters expand and Royce Ring and Steve Schmoll will be around to pick up some of those innings.
re: Glavine - it seems like he has stopped pitching inside again and is not aggressive. He may have forgotten his game plan and he’s stubborn. I think he’ll come around though.
re: Wagner - I was so excited when we got him and my Phillies fan friend said “you can have him.” He only blew two saves last year, so I didn’t see what the big deal was but he was just like “you’ll see.’ Now I do…
That sounds like the most logical explanation to me, Dep. He went almost a year with the “reinvention” and now the book is out. Time to make some adjustments of his own to fool hitters again.
My other thought would be that he has reverted back to the old, less aggressive, style because he realizes he can cruise until October and doesn’t want to show hitters too much while the games don’t matter. Similar to how during the last game of preseason football, the teams play as limited an offense as possible so they don’t give their entire playbook away before the games matter…that might be giving him too much credit though.
Not to change subjects but, did anyone else hear Mex talking about bumping am umpire when he was in double A. Basically, he said the ump was really drunk and called a strike three on a waaaaay outsite pitch. It was a very,
Seriously — I hope Mex runs for political office someday.
You can quote stats or you can sum up Glavine’s slump in two words: HE’S OLD!!!
This is yet another reason why I was so in favor of trading Milledge for an ace starter at the deadline.
Man, it’s kind of quiet today, considering the loss last night.
Let’s hope for a nice bounce back tonight.
Couldn’t let this go. The one and only greatest trade in Mets history is Neil Allen and Rick Owenby for Mr. Keith Hernandez.
When he was pitching well earlier in the year, about 55% of balls in play were hit on the ground. Over the last month and a half it’s dipped below 40%.
Corresponding with this, his BABIP has gone from .220 when he was hot, to .350 now.
Translation: He’s not keeping the ball down as well, and since he doesn’t have that great stuff, when people are lifting the ball, they’re lifting it hard. Maybe after that good start, he started thinking he could be a strikeout pitcher. Oops.
I wonder, too, if his new gut’s got anything to do with it.
Still in mourning… ;-)
which one of mike francessa or chris “mad dog” russo do you like the least.
Francessa, no question. I feel like Russo knows it’s all an act and he enjoys rattling the cage of the fatheaded listeners/callers. (That doesn’t mean I enjoy him, but I do respect the way he’s positioned himself in the marketplace) Francessa really seems to think he’s a wise and important figure in the sports world. Plus Russo openly vows never to allow his children to root for the Yankees. Gotta respect that!
Michael Kay
Kay sucks, is a Yankee homer likes to to stir crap up about the Mets also, and is always second guessing since he never sees the game live since he is broadcasting the Yankees.
Francessa, no question. I feel like
U said it perfectly. This is precisely my issue with Fatcessa. Russo is just an act, Fatcessa thinks he is always right and never owns up to when he is wrong.
Talk about picking your poison.
Russo is a man who loves his own voice. He has very little in the way of knowledge at some times. He made a comment when the Barry Book came out that he did not know how many HR’s Ruth had. I mean come on, how do you not know that. His credibility is low though, since he beat up Lidle for bashing Barry but not Giambi. Russo has rarely bashed Barry.
As for Francessa, well, he is a know-it-all. I think that is what gets under my skin. He does know a lot, but the I know better than you attitude is a turn-off, especially when he does make mistakes, yet refuses to admit to them. Phil Mushnick seems to have an item a month about a mistake Mike F makes.
They both have little respect for the Mets. At the end of the day, that is what irritates me most. Russo at least is not bending over for the Yankees, unlike his partner.
Kay and Sterling are two of the biggest homers since Rizzuto.
AMEN, brother, couldn’t have said it better meself.
Giving a starter a mid-season sabbatical often works wonders in the post-season. Anyone remember Bruce Hurst in ‘86 ? Bill James made reference to some manager long ago who cagily gave a veteran starter a ridiculously long vacation and sent him out to scout the probable post-season opponents. He started and won Game One of the WS to everyone’s surprise. Kudos to anyone who knows who I’m talking about, since I’ve forgotten the names myself.