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May 31, 2006
The X,Y,Z’s of Carlos Gomez
In his article “The A,B,C’s of Carlos Gomez“, author Patrick Teale tells us that Mets farmhand Carlos Gomez “has more than held his own” when comparing his performance so far to that of All Stars Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltran and Miguel Cabrera. But is that true? The first thing that came to my head when reading this was that comparing Carlos Gomez to three players isn’t proof of anything. Anyone who has taken an elementary statistics class knows about the dangers of using small sample sizes to make any arguments. And this is no different. Obviously, Patrick Teale knows this, and that’s why he mentions that just because these players went on to have All Star careers does not mean Gomez will do the same, even if his numbers were comparable to theirs. However, my problem with his article is not that he compares Gomez to Abreu, Beltran and Cabrera, but that he believes their minor league numbers are comparable, when a closer look reveals they are not In making his comparison, Teale uses AVG, runs scored, RBI, SBs, ABs among other counting stats to make his point that Carlos Gomez has held his own. However, what he did not mention is that most stat heads avoid using stats like these. Instead, when comparing two prospects, the average “stat geek” would use rate stats, which in contrast to counting stats take into account the number of opportunities a prospect had to hit a double or steal a base. Generally speaking, someone who looks at numbers to evaluate prospects will focus on two statistics: OBP and SLG. Moreover, as performance analysis has gained popularity, the evaluation of minor league performances has been a bit more complex, and as a result, has gained more accuracy. Gone are the days where prospect mavens would look at 25 year old prospect with Ruthian numbers in the Texas League and declare him to be the next Barry Bonds. Nowadays, park factors , age-level relation, power and control or plate discipline ratios are every bit as important as on-base percentage and slugging percentage. But you guys read MetsGeek, so you knew that already. So without further ado, here’s how Gomez and the A, B, and C’s really look like: Gomez That’s what Gomez has done so far in his career. Here’s what the other guys did at the same levels or ages: Abreu As you can see, even though he was one year younger than him when they both hit the same level, Abreu hit for a better average, and had much better plate discipline than Gomez. As he got older, those doubles started going over the fence, and he became the monster he is right now. Beltran Unlike with Abreu, the Gomez-Beltran comparison is more fitting because of Carlos’ struggles at age 20. However, coming in, Beltran had better plate discipline, and even in that lost year, he still managed to draw 46 walks in only 416 Abs to give him a very nice 0.81 IsoD in the tough Carolina League. I haven’t followed Carlos’ minor league career so I don’t know if he was injured or not, but it wouldn’t surprise me. The only other two subpar seasons in his resume were both riddled with injuries (2000, 2005). Cabrera Sure, Miguel had Carlos Gomez-like numbers before getting to double A, but don’t let that fool you. When they were 18, Miguel was holding his own in A-ball while Gomez was putting a similar line in Rookie ball. When they were 19, Miguel was holding his own in the toughest hitters’ league in the minors while Gomez was putting a similar line in A ball. They were both at AA when they turned 20, but their performances couldn’t be more different. Cabrera destroyed the Southern League before being promoted to the Major Leagues where he more than held his own as the World Champion’s cleanup hitter while Gomez hasn’t. Obviously, this was a very quick evaluation, and needless to say it could be done with more detail, and therefore more accuracy. But nonetheless, the point still stands. Gomez’s numbers do not compare well with the careers of the aforementioned All Stars. He may eventually put all his tools together and become a star, but right now, I don’t think anyone can say with any degree of certainty that he will. Evaluating prospects isn’t an easy task. One cannot look only at statistics to know who will be the next superstar. But by the same token, one cannot look only at scouting reports to do the same. Both are pieces of the puzzle, and whether it is Bobby Abreu’s immense potential, or Cabrera’s raw talent, both can reveal things about prospects that might not be so apparent in the statistics, or in our eyes. OFF writes. You read. 33 Responses to “The X,Y,Z’s of Carlos Gomez”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Nice to have you back writing some articles Ricardo. Great stuff here.
The article also eluded to Gomez having some sort of shoulder injury that he was trying to play through. I am not making excuses, just saying…
Also, didn’t Gomez get off to a horrible start last year? Perhaps he is just a very streaky hitter, and he is about to get in a groove (see Floyd, Cliff).
The biggest thing is, could he become a star? Absolutely. Has he done anything production-wise to suggest that he will be a star? Not really. Perhaps another look at these comparisons at the end of the year when Gomez has hopefully gone through some sort of hot streak would be useful. If that hot streak ever comes…
(Oh well, there’s always Fernando Martinez to get excited about!)
That would be alluded* (I hate when I do that)
Who is Fernando Martinez? Which Mets farm team is on?
Um, so, I’ve been kind of wondering this for a while, but why is Ricardo referred to as OFF? Is it an acronym, and if so, for what?
Fernando is in Hagerstown (or was- his ABs seem stuck in the low 100s…)
Statistically there is nothing to like about Gomez aside from the steals.
The worst part about cherrypicking Abreu, Cabrera and Beltran, is that their development was atypical, teh vast majority of players who play like they did 18-21 never even reach teh majors, let alone be stars- and Gomez is behind them.
The only thing Gomez has going for him (statistically) is his age- the Mets are clearly rushing him (they are not “pushing” him as some Metsgeek posters have repeatedly suggested) they are rushing him and he’s struggling. He’s clearly not ready for AA, and letting advanced pitchers eat himn alive is doing nothing for his development.
But then again, I don’t think he’s a real prospect anyway, he’s a hoax like Sil Campusano… (But hey, Sil outplayed Gomez ages 18-20…)
Stanley Jefferson… had better rate stats, but at an older age, proabably a good match.
Endy Chavez- another good match
Carlos Gomez- top prospect? give me a break
To be quite honest, I don’t know how serious that injury is. Something that struck me as odd is the fact that Patrick doesn’t mention it in the body of his article as a possible explanation for Gomez’s struggles.
BTW, just for fun. At AA:
Abreu (20)
.302/.372/.530 400 AB
Beltran (21)
.352/.427/.687 182 AB
Cabrera (20)
.365/.429/.609 266 AB
Fernando is battling a hand injury and probably won’t be back for a couple more weeks at the earliest.
Fernando is still in Hagerstown. He’s currently on the DL though.
I’m referred to as OFF because that’s the handle I use in another website (where I met Jeremy and Matt) and because that’s the handle I used when I wrote in my blog. Alas, the tyrant communist overlord that is MetsGeek managment requested that I lose it when we started this site. It could be an acronym for Our Favorite Family, but unfortunately it is not.
That’s not entirely fair. The reason why it is useful to compare Gomez to someone like Beltran is that Beltran was a raw, toolsy prospect who realized his considerable potential. Sure, the raw, toolsy prospects fall on their face all the time (mostly because they can’t hit). But sometimes they become Carlos Beltran, or Vladimir Guerrero, or Sammy Sosa… you get the point. From what the scouts say, Gomez has considerable physical gifts. Is he more likely Wilton Guerrero than Vladimir? Of course. But his progression is still worth following.
Just for fun:
Sosa (20) High-A
.229/.282/.355 in 507 AB, 42 SB, 24 CS
And Sosa was a great player before his probable steroid use.
Again, Gomez will probably not amount to anything. But then again, he might not.
I just want to clarify, I don’t think Carlos Gomez will be a superstar. But his progression is useful to track, because with his physical tools, there is that microscopic chance that he could develop into one. We know what Jeff Keppinger’s ceiling is. We have no idea what Carlos Gomez could mature into.
What is the use of tracking the Mets minor leaguers without practicing a little hope?
Jorge Julio has been named closer of AZ.
Anyone know when Fernando is comming back?
Im going to a couple of hagerstown games in the next two weeks and i was wondering if he play or not.
Ok DD420 where is the punch line for the Julio joke.
Great article Ricardo, I think Gomez is an interesting player that the Mets where either hoping to rush to increase value or Omar the scout loves his tools and wants to see him play.
he’s better than Valverde or Brandon Lyon. He’s the same as Vizcaino. Now, this is what makes Bob Melvin unable to manage a big league pen (he’s light yrs worse than willie), his best reliever is Brandon Medders and he only uses him in blowouts, games where they are losing, when someone is struggling or when they over used the pen
I do not wanna see Julio tonite…based on Benitez’s success agst the mets, I could easily see a dominating 1-2-3 inning for Benitez Lite.
PUT WEBB IN A BODYBAG JOHNNY!!!!
I saw Gomez play CF when the B-Mets came to NH. Defensively he can eat up some serious real estate. He runs effortlessly, which in the future when he slumps, he’ll be accused of dogging it. He also has an excellent throwing arm. He’s still young and he’s in over his head offensively in the EL. I’m sure he’s has a high ceiling, but so did Alex Escobar, Alex Ochoa Etc.
Just listening to B Mets game, the announcers said Gomez is in NYC for an MRI on his back.
I really find it annoying that everyone loves to trot out Alex Escobar’s name when discussing prospects.
Hey folks, Escobar tore his knee to pieces. It was the type of injury that no athlete will ever come back from. It just so happened that Escobar was in the minors when it happened. It could happen to any player, at any time, and end their career. Escobar was not a bust for any lack of talent, he suffered a devestating injury that took his legs away and ended his career before it started.
As for Gomez, let’s give him a chance before we consider him the next bust. He was rushed, no doubt about it. But, we all cannot look at his total year stats from last year as a complete picture of him. It has been well documented on this site that Gomez between mid-May and the end of the year tore up Hagerstown fairly well. He was hitting around .215 in May and finished the year around .275. Without doing any heavy math, that shows me he hit well over .300 for the second half of the year.
I really want to see how he bounces back the second half this year. But, even if this becomes a lost year for Gomez and he repeat AA next year, he will still be only 21 in AA. So, we have 2 or 3 years before we can label him a bust.
Hey Sweetlew. You got me on the Alex Escobar reference. I’d forgotten about the injury. I’ve got to get over the automatic negativity that surfaces in my pea brain. Gomez is young and is extremely athletic so there’s always hope.
Prospects always see their status change so quickly. A year ago, Milledge was hitting a soft .300 in high A ball and didn’t strike me as any big deal. Since then he’s been promoted twice, and improved his OBP twice. I must confess I did not see it coming.
Seeing as how Gomez’s recent performance puts him in “who knows?” territory, let’s give him another year. By then, he may be hitting .300 in AAA or hitting .150 in single A. At the moment, I am neither excited nor discouraged by this 21-year-old.
Possibly the smartest thing I have read on here in a long time! ;)
He’s actually only 20 years old. But I definitely agree with your main point, the jury is still out.
I think in some cases we as fans of the Mets are becoming somewhat jaded by the rapid ascension and ensuing MLB production by D Wright and Reyes. These guys just flew threw the system and got to the bigs and produced at such young ages it is insane. Alot of good players don’t debut and stick until they are 23 or 24 years old, and yes I know some of them are college talent, but it just takes some guys longer to develop.
Dammit, I knew I should have looked that up before just assuming based on Ricardo’s article…
Let it be known that Gomez turns 20 and a half in 5 days. (DOB 12/4/85)
This is depressing on some levels because Gomez is the highest level prospect in the mets organization that I can honestly say is young enough to be my kid! (My girlfriend gave me an early christmas present in 1985!)
Of course I should remember human gestation period of nine months! But it is still damn depressing!
…or 25 (Bay, Howard, Soriano) or 26 (Hafner, Overbay, BGiles) or 27 (Ensberg, Podsednik, Varitek)…
Thanks Argon,
That would be my point that yes he has been in the minors for a few years but give the a chance to develop. Watch out for Philly in a couple years locking up Utley and Howard to big contracts based on there peaks years which they are now entering as non arbitration guys.
I haven’t really been following the discussions around MG, but is this true? I have Gomez hitting .250 on May 31st, .266 by June 30th, and finishing the year at .275. That’s good, but hardly tearing up a league.
Well he’s still only 26-27 and was hitting 298/445/511 for Harrisburg when the Nats called him up, and he’s hit .375/.375/.375 for the Nats (OK only 8 at bats).
He could still have a Matt Stairs type career, but he’s never gonna be the 5 tool player he was once envisioned to be
His streak might have started earlier than I recalled. But there was a point around mid-May where Gomez was hitting around .212. He then went on a sustained “tear” raising his average 60 points.
I may have overstated the case in my ever-optimistic manner, but he definitely had a really, really slow start lasting into May. This makes his year end numbers more impressive than they appear at first glance.
Should have started the yr in the FSL.
I would like to see Gomez’ stats compared to Reyes’ stats. Seems to be more similarities there, then with the 3 he was compared to. Arm strength, defensive ability, and lots of speed projects into a lead off hitter with a little more pop than Reyes.
I disagree with this pretty strongly. I generally follow a sabermetric approah to evaluating MLB players, but when evaluating prospects, you have to allow for the possibility of projection and growth. Focusing predominantly on OBP and SLG too heavily skews the evaluation of a prospect to a mere measurement of his present day minor league value rather than a projection of long term major league potential. I don’t disagree that minor league performance is far more important than scouty types like to pretend, but it is not the end of the argument.
First and foremost, the statistic that I care about most when evaluating prospects is batting average. I know it is fluky and prone to variation, but BA evidences a prospect’s ability to make consist solid contact. Without that, all the power and patience in the world will melt away as a prospect moves up the latter. Power is obviously important, but for a prospect like Gomez who is young and has the frame to hit for more power, it is reasonable to assume that his power will increase as he matures. As such, I don’t really care a whit about Gomez’ SLG.
Finally, strike zone judgement is obviously important, but I care a lot more about the components that comprise strike zone judgment than I do about how those compents affect a prospect’s OBP and SLG. Neither OBP nor SLG penalize a prospect for strikeouts. For a MLB player, that’s fine, but a high strikeout rate for a minor league hitter evidences an inability to make contact that will only be exacerbated as the prospect advances. And while a solid walk rate is obviously a good indicator for a prospect, if the prospect does not have the primary hitting skills to penalize a pitcher for making a mistake, he will not bea ble to draw as many walks against more advanced pitchers with better control and his OBP will decline.
This isn’t meant to be a defense of Carlos Gomez, but I think we have to take his AA numbers with a grain of salt as he clearly shouldn’t be at this level. His low A numbers last season combined with his tools were somewhat promising - maybe not Carlos Beltran/Miguel Cabrera promising, but enough to make me think that he could be useful. I think with a lot of prospects there is a rush to judgement before nearly enough evidence is in. Like other low level Mets prospects, such as Mike Carp and Jesus Flores, I refuse to tout or condemn Gomez. At this stage in each of their careers, I only think that thy have done enough to bear watching. I don’t think any of them have performed so awfully or exceptionally that it really makes sense to say much more than that.