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May 26, 2006
Remember Me?
Last July, Phil Humber underwent Tommy John surgery much to the disappointment of the Mets organization. Humber had an abdominal strain and he sat out a start or two as a result, but that injury may have ultimately been what led to his elbow blowing out. He most likely began overthrowing and altering his throwing motion to compensate for the discomfort he was feeling and rest is history. The Mets drafted him with the mindset that he would not need much time in the minors and was supposed to factor into the rotation picture for 2006. Predictably enough, the Mets would have been able to use the 23 year old Humber with all of the uncertainly at the back end of the rotation. Back in February, Phil Humber was long tossing to build up his arm strength and throwing 45 feet off a mound. His goal was to make it back to action before the June timeframe, but at this point, that is obviously not going to happen. Regardless of the fact that his return did not happen earlier than the timeline he was on, his return is just around the corner. The knock on Humber as to why he will never be a true #1 is because his best pitch is his curveball and truly dominant starters often control the game with their fastball. While that may be true in some cases, there are devastating pitchers that can control the game with something other than a fastball. Brandon Webb controls the game with his sinker, Trevor Hoffman controls the game with his off-speed pitch, Barry Zito controls the game with his curveball, Randy Johnson controlled the game with his slider, Roger Clemens controlled the game with “Mr. Splitty”, etc. A strong fastball can help set up your money pitch and Humber certainly has that. Phil Humber has a fastball that he throws in the mid to low 90’s that is a plus pitch, a 12-6 curveball that is a plus pitch, a change-up that has potential to be a plus pitch, and a splitter. We all know about his impressive curveball, but what I found most interesting was a tidbit that Peter Gammons had written. In March of 2005, Gammons had written that Humber showed Rick Peterson a ‘filthy’ split that had Peterson thinking of another young pitcher that he had worked with while in Oakland. When Tim Hudson first came up, Baseball America had called his split ’satisfactory’ and he was able to hone it into his money pitch. I’m not suggesting that Humber will turn into a Hudson clone, but they do have a similar repertoire of pitches and similar velocity. A lot of people are not overly excited about Humber because he had been tagged as being a safe pick, but what people are overlooking is this kid can pitch. He has a lot of upside and has the potential to own four above average pitches. The biggest concern with Mike Pelfrey and the only thing that is really holding him back is his second and third pitches. While Pelfrey’s ascent to Major Leagues will depend on how quickly he can refine his curveball and changeup, Humber is much further along in terms of his second and third pitches with the possibility of adding a fourth. Pelfrey’s ceiling down the road may be higher due his electric arm and I like his arm better than Humber’s, but I like Humber better as a complete package at this point and it would not surprise me if Phil Humber reached his ceiling quicker than Pelfrey in spite of the injury. The recovery rate for Tommy John surgery has been well documented and is encouraging, but what can we realistically expect from Humber? So far Humber has been making great progress and he has been using the last few months to get his arm strength back and will spend the remainder of the season throwing predominantly hard stuff to help build his strength up. Not only are fastballs better for building his arm strength, but breaking pitches put the most tension on the elbow which is another reason he will be on a diet fastballs and splits. In something that can help in the long run, he relied heavily on his curveball in college as his out-pitch and he will need to learn how to rely on his other pitches a lot more and that has it’s obvious benefits. Though I hate to use this term, many players learn how to be pitchers rather than throwers on their way back from Tommy John because they often have to work with about 90% of what they formerly had at first while staying away from breaking pitches. In Humber’s case, he might bring along his change-up and split faster since he will be relying on those and may be able to walk away from his surgery with four plus pitches when his time comes. With what has happened to the Mets rotation this year, one can only wonder what would have transpired if Phil had not gotten injured, but he did. Despite the injury, I am still very optimistic Phil Humber will be a big part of this team for a long time and I am very anxious to see this immensely talented pitcher to take the mound for the Mets again. Michael is a regular contributor to MetsGeek.com and The Metropolitans. For a good time, email him at metropolitans@optonline.net. 17 Responses to “Remember Me?”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Great piece on Humber. What is a reasonable time that Humber will be in the majors, mid 2007, start of 2008? (assuming he pitches like we expect him to?)
Despite what I’ve said previously, I’m looking forward to getting Humber back. Safety pick or not, he was a third overall. That’s good. He’ll be a big upgrade.
I think Wednesday’s game against the Phils showed the value of a good curveball. Did Gavin Floyd get a single out on anything other than his curve? Pedro and Glavine both have extremely effective curveballs, but it’ll be nice to have a guy with a real nasty, big-breaker.
Thanks very much for that piece Michael. Do TJ players get their curve ball back completely? And are curve ball pitchers more likely to be re-injured? Anyway, I am excited about Humber. I suppose that if he has to lay off his curve ball, watching his ERA and K’s won’t be a good indication of how well he is doing the first few months. Would that be a correct assessment?
I have always contended, from the moment I started understood pitching, a pitcher needed 3 things to succeed. First, he needs to locate his fastball. I don’t care if its 80 mph or 100 mph, just locate it. Second, he needs to change speeds. The last thing is changing a hitters eye level. I think Humber has a chance to do all three things on the next level.
As for Pelfrey, I expect the same thing. I hear alot of times on this site that Pelfreys problems is changing speeds (I agree somewhat). We know he has a got sinking fastball. We know he has a good slider. But what he doesnt have is the off speed pitch that will change a hitters eye level. It doesnt even have to be that good. It could be a changeup, a curve or a split. As many of you know, I’m a fan of the dbacks after seeing alot of their young guys grow up playing in Tucson. You can get away with throwing a sinker 80% of the time (see Brandon webb) but you need a pitch that will keep a hitter from locking in on your sinker like a curve (see Brandon webb)or a change up (see Brandon Webb). I’ve watched Brandon hang his curve and a hitter cant touch it because he’s so geared up to hit the sinker. His curve and change have turned into plus pitches which was not the case when he threw 90% fastballs down on the farm in Tucson a few yrs back.
Yes. A good example (even though he’s having a tough year) is Matt Morris and his curve ball.
The splitter tends to disappear. John SMoltz is trying to abandon throwing the split. He use to throw 25% splits b4 the surgery, he’s down to 10% and he would like it to be just a few a game. Kerry wood had to change how he pitched after tommy john which probably resulted into causing more injuries since he was rushed back while learning to pitch again. If you watch his 20 K game, you’ll see a nasty slider and a nasty curve. He throws each of those pitches differently now. B4 the injury, he was mechanically nightmarish and many believe thats why he got injured in the first place. Kerry Wood is an extreme example mind you and I havent heard of any mechanical issues being the cause to humbers injury
Wait a sec, didn’t you just tell me he might develop a nasty, Hudsonesque split? Now it’s going to disappear?
Great article, Mike. I agree that the “safe” side of Humber has diminished him in some eyes, but hey, now that he got hurt, he’s no longer the safe choice, is he? Anyway, I kind of laugh at all this #1 stuff. I mean, there are five pitchers in a rotation! What is clear is that Humber has ample potential to win 15-20 games a year over a significant period of time. Let’s hope he recovers quickly enough to make an appearance (at least) at Shea next season.
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I have always contended, from the moment I started understood pitching, a pitcher needed 3 things to succeed. First, he needs to locate his fastball. I don’t care if its 80 mph or 100 mph, just locate it. Second, he needs to change speeds. The last thing is changing a hitters eye level. I think Humber has a chance to do all three things on the next level.
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I pretty much agree. I mean, a lot of pitchers take various routes in pursuit of their goal, but that’s as good a place to start as any.
I reckon some of you remember when Phil Niekro threw his 300th career win in 1985. He was ancient by that time, of course; Niekro was 26 before he won his first game in the majors.
Anyway, he threw exactly one knuckleball the entire night, and that to the last batter in his complete game victory. Niekro had a fastball that topped out at maybe 80 mph on a good day.
Location, changing speeds and an idea of what you’re trying to do on the mound, is a winning combination. Reportedly Humber has that last article in abundance.
Fantastic stuff Michael. You had mentioned a few days ago that you were doing some research into Humber, and I was looking forward to this. Good piece. I had forgotten about the splitter he was throwing. I remember all of the very glowing articles that came out on him after he threw his first bullpen session. I couldn’t help but think of those again this year when the same articles were being written about Pelfrey.
We don’t really know how this story will play out. Until he starts really letting loose and rebuilding his arm strength (pitching-wise), we don’t know if the velocity is still there. Are the Mets going to try and change his mechanics because of this? Will he be able to throw the splitter? Where will he be assigned?
Maybe I am just tired of being the pessimistic Mets fan, but I still have high hopes for Mr. Humber.
thanks for this. i was just wondering about Humby last week and couldn’t find much about him. One question for the bunch–you say he’ll be staying away from the curve, and work on a “diet” of the fastball and splitter–but isn’t a splitter hard on the elbow too?
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thanks for this. i was just wondering about Humby last week and couldn’t find much about him. One question for the bunch–you say he’ll be staying away from the curve, and work on a “diet” of the fastball and splitter–but isn’t a splitter hard on the elbow too?
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Anyways, Tommy John, the guy whose name is emblazoned on each new elbow that rolls down the O.R. conveyor belt — didn’t he occasionally mix in a breaking ball?
ALot ot people compare the effectiveness of the Tommy John Curve ball to Tom Glavine. Tommy John added that winkle late in his career and batters didnt know what to do. I’ve heard people say it wasnt that great but since no one saw it and batters never looked for it, he’d dump it in alot for 1st pitch strikes,
My biggest caution for Pelfrey Shea Any Day boosters has been fear of overuse. He threw 140 innings last season for Witchita St. Not sure if that includes post-season but he did not make the CWS so maybe another 15-20ip in regional play.
He has tossed 44ip so far and going again tonight which puts him on pace to be around 125-135ip when the rosters expand September 1.
A September call up would coincide with his stretching his arm further than he went last season. Not necessarily a problem but maybe better done in a less stressful minor league environment than in the heat of a NYC pennant race.
Phil Humber on the other hand might be finding his groove right around September 1. He will probably have closer to 80 innings on his arm by then.
The point? He may be a better call-up than Pelfry this September. Of course that assumes a steady, healthy progression and having a decent arsenal of pitches. Neither are guaranteed but wouldn’t it be ironic if Humber beat Pelfrey to the show?
Frankly I don’t care if neither sees a day at Shea this season as long as they both stay healthy and make progress towards approaching their ceilings.
Great article. Thanks. That having been said, I think we have to write Humber off for now coming off the TJ surgery. Maybe he will live up to his potential down the road but I have my doubts given his curveball being his most effective pitch and the strain that puts on the arm. Who knows if he will ever be what we thought he was going to be when we drafted him (#1-#2). We can hope. But, for now, we should consider anything we get from Humber to be gravy.
The splitter tends to disappear. John SMoltz is trying to abandon throwing the split. He use to throw 25% splits b4 the surgery
It depends on the pitcher. Kerry Wood had to back off his nasty curve and throw one easier on his elbow. Smoltz doesn’t use his split as much, but threw his slider a lot more and that strains the elbow more.
As far as the splitter putting tension on the elbow, every pitch does. However, if you have ever thrown a split, it is the same thing as fastball but with a different grip. The fingers are split and the motion is the same….hence split-finger or splitter. You come right of the top and keep your wrist as you would if you threw a fastball. It does not require you to twist your wrist causing extra strain on the elbow. A curveball requires the twisting of the wrist and a more of a snapping motion. Picture turning a door knob really quick. If you do that a few times in a row pretty hard, you will actually feel it in your elbow.
The split has less stress on the elbow, but every pitcher is different. It is really about comfort. I don’t know why Smoltz abandoned it, but it could have been that he just didn’t feel comfy throwing it anymore. We will not know which direction Humber is going to go until he comes back. He might throw 80% fastballs for the first month or two and might not really even use his curve until next season. He might not even have a 12-6 anymore and might have to use a different breaking pitch all together.
eli, this season will be a wash for Humber. Stats are really, really unimportant. No one is expecting a sub 3.00 ERA and he probably will get knocked around. His velocity will might be in the mid 80’s when he comes back and he will not be able to use his main pitch.
DG, what is really, really annoying is that people say he might not be a ‘true #1′. By definition, isn’t he a #2 then? I know what they are getting at, but it is still annoying. The guy as front end potential and that is all I care about and in some repsects, he might be further along than Pelfrey who has dissapointed a bit in AA and proved he does have some work to do. The same concerns about him before the draft are still around now.
I don’t see why a pitcher who just came off a TJ operation would start throwing splits. A splitter puts tremendous pressure on the elbow tendon. John Smoltz at the start of the season said he wanted to shelve his splitter because of that fact, Mike Scott and Roger Clemens each had discomfort while throwing the splitter. I used to throw a splitter in college probably about 7-10 a game, and trust me every time I did it my elbow would tingle.