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April 28, 2006
  
Upcoming Series: Atlanta Braves Pitchers

With the Braves getting swept by the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Mets taking two of three from the San Francisco Giants, our boys in blue and orange are once again a solid five games up in the standings coming into an Atlanta series. The Braves offense has been sputtering, posting a .197 average in their last ten games and hitting under .200 with runners in scoring position over their last fifteen. And, to top it all off, here come the Mets into Atlanta with their three horses: Pedro, Glavine and Trachsel. Yes, that’s right Mets (and Braves) fans, there will be no Victor Zambrano to give up five runs in the first two innings, successfully killing all momentum and good feelings. For the first time in quite awhile Mets management has gone out of their way to put themselves in the best situation possible — looking to take all three games from the Braves, and to continue to build a big lead in the standings. And, with the offense showing signs of life again, it all starts tonight at Turner Field. In the marquee matchup of April, the undefeated Pedro Martinez (4-0, 3.04) takes the mound against his greatest rival, John Smoltz (1-1, 4.15). In the second game, Tom Glavine (2-2, 2.78) returns to his House of Horrors to take on former Met John Thomson (0-0, 1.31). And, in the finale, the ever reliable Steve Trachsel (2-1, 3.13) cements his role as third starter by bumping Victor Zambrano back and taking on the newest Met Killer, Hiram Kyle Davies (1-2, 4.56).

Game 1: John Smoltz

What’s the Story? Better known in some circles as Satan Incarnate, Smoltz has been with Atlanta since 1988, and since donning a Braves jersey he’s gone 13-11 with an ERA of 3.53 in his fifty-eight appearances against the Mets. Smoltz was already a borderline Hall of Fame pitcher before last season, and he only helped his cause by going 14-7 with a 3.06 ERA in a remarkable 229.7 innings. Though Smoltz pitched a complete game shutout against the Padres a couple weeks ago, he’s been fairly hittable this season. If you remove his dominant start against the Padres he’s averaging five and two thirds innings and four runs a game. Still, he’s facing the Mets, and his arch nemesis Pedro, so you can probably expect a solid start out of him. Smoltz’s stuff is right where it was last season — he’s sporting a mid-90’s fastball, a hellacious slider, and his infamous splitter. He also features a solid curveball, a decent change.

Last Season: Smoltz was fairly dominant against the Mets last season despite a 3-2 record. In thirty-five innings he held the Mets to only nine runs, despite giving up thirty-three hits (including homeruns by Carlos Beltran and David Wright). Perhaps most impressive, he walked only five while striking out thirty-one. That, my friends, is what we call pitching.

What to Expect: Smoltz and Pedro didn’t duel to the death last season, so perhaps a winner will be determined this year — while both are still healthy enough to be at the top of their games. Though Smoltz has had more than a few questionable outings, you have to figure that a.) pitching at Turner Field, b.) pitching against the Mets and c.) pitching as much of a Must Win game as you can have in April, will all bring out the best in him. Smoltz has been a primarily fastball/slider pitcher this season, and he’s been pounding the corner down and away, just like Mazzone taught him to. He’s dominated righties with his slider throughout his career, and this year’s no different. Lefties should expect a healthy dose of splitters. Either pitch will be thrown to either hitter, however, when he’s got two strikes on you.

Game 2: John Thomson

What’s the Story? Thomson originally started the season out of the bullpen, but was quickly slotted back into the regular rotation after Horacio Ramirez went down with a strained hamstring. Though the tutelage of Leo Mazzone was credited as Thomson’s major reason for his rebirth, so far this year he’s been arguably the Braves best starter. Over his three starts he’s thrown seventeen innings, allowing only one earned run on fourteen hits. Thomson features a mid-90’s fastball, a hard sinker, a nice slider, a changeup and a curveball.

Last Season: Thomson pitched pretty well against the Mets last year, despite posting a 1-1 record in his three starts. In nineteen innings he allowed only six runs despite giving up eighteen hits (including a Cliff Floyd homer). He walked two and struck out fourteen.

What to Expect: Thomson’s success lies in keeping his pitches down in the strike zone. During his short stint with the Mets his major problem was the fact that his fastball stayed up in the zone, which resulted in him getting hammered often. With the Braves he’s mastered keeping the ball down, and the results have shown once again that he’s doing it well. He’s a pitcher who changes speeds often, which has driven Mets hitters nuts so far this year, and relies mostly on his fastball and sinker/slider. He’ll stay predominantly away from righties, but is willing to come inside against lefthanders due to his sinker. Righties should keep an eye out for the slider.

Game 3: Kyle Davies

What’s the Story? Click here for Davies’ original scouting report.

This Year: Instead of just this year — let’s look at both, shall we? Over the course of his young career, Kyle Davies is 2-0 in two starts against the Mets. He’s held them to eleven hits in sixteen and a third innings, and has struck out four while walking twelve. His ERA against the team is .55. Mets hitters have hit .193 against him. I hate him.

What to Expect: The Mets have this knack of making young pitchers look like the second coming of Tom Seaver, and Davies has been no exception. However, after the Mets get shutout by these rookie pitchers, they rarely ever face them again — and even more rarely face them two weeks later. This is an interesting test to see if Davies is really going to stay this good against the Mets, or if he’s just lucked into two terrific starts. With the offense looking like it’s about to get on another roll, we’ll see if Davies’ curveball can put up another nine innings of zeroes. Either way, his real name is Hiram, so even if he continues to kill us at least we’ll have something fun to chant at him for the next ten years.

Overall: I don’t care what anybody says, this is not shaping up to be just some April series with a lot of baseball yet to be played. The Mets rarely get second chances, and definitely never get them against the Braves, and yet here they are — with the same place they held in the standings last time they faced Andruw Jones and his coterie of ne’er-do-wells, and left for the west coast on a 1-2 trouncing. Five games is a healthy lead, but seven or even eight games is outstanding, and it’s never too early to attempt to put the Braves away — especially when they have a history of playing great late. The potential for a great Mets series is evident: while the pitching matchups are all terrific, the Mets have leg-ups on the bullpen and the offense if it’s truly starting to roll. Still, until the Mets beat the Braves, you’ve got to give the upperhand to Atlanta. Personally, I’m gonna say the Mets go 1-2 again — taking Trachsel’s start. But I do feel they’ll be close in all three games, and it’ll all give us a good feeling for the future.

Of course, if the offense picks it up this could be a totally different story.

Predicted Record: 12-9
Actual Record: 14-7
Predicted W/L: 10-11


69 Responses to “Upcoming Series: Atlanta Braves Pitchers”

  1. Comment posted by Danny on April 28, 2006 at 9:51 am (#35963)

    Andrew, I also hate Hiram Davies.

    I really want to pick the Mets to take 2 out of 3, especially because I like the fact that we are running Pedro, Glavine and Trachsel out there. However, I cannot in good conscience pick the Mets to beat the Braves in any series until I see it with my own eyes. The same roll of film always plays out, the Mets do something stupid to lose and/or the Braves do something smart to win.

    Braves take 2 of 3.

  2. Comment posted by Ed in Norfolk on April 28, 2006 at 10:12 am (#35966)

    I know it’s Rosenthal, but after Francouer talk so much junk after the last series this is still a great read:

    The Braves aren’t talking about demoting struggling right fielder Jeff Francouer, who has yet to draw a walk in 87 plate appearances, but it wouldn’t be shocking if they eventually take that step. Francouer, 22, showed increased selectivity in spring training, then attributed his early slump to being too patient. He briefly got hot after returning to his free-swinging ways, but clubs quickly exploited his renewed aggressiveness. The Braves will be in position to make a move with Francouer once Kelly Johnson recovers from his elbow injury. Brian Jordan and Matt Diaz are the team’s other right-field options …

    Ha ha ha!

  3. Comment posted by jzach on April 28, 2006 at 10:52 am (#35977)

    I have to say, this is the first time in a LONG time that we go into a series with the Braves and the Braves have far more to lose than we do. If we win this series 2-1 or 3-0, the Braves will certainly start to shift into panic mode, whereas if we lose the series it is unfortunate but not really a big deal (someone on ESPN will write: “The Mets always lose to the Braves, but at least this year they’ll probably make the playoffs without going through Atlanta”). Perhaps that shift of pressure is exactly what we need to win the series, maybe even sweep, and for the first time in a long time establish a new top dog in the NL East.

    My prediction:
    Game 1: A close first game turns in the Mets favor when the Braves bullpen comes in and allows the go-ahead runs as the Mets win by two. Pedro-Heilman-Sanchez-Wagner show why we traded away all of our starting pitching depth and spent $24M.

    Game 2: Glavine pitches well, while Thomson shows that his three-game rebirth was more the product of an unclutch Phillies offense and a weak Nationals and Padres offense, falling apart in the middle innings as the Mets cruise to victory. Willie plays both Heilman and Sanchez in the late innings despite the 4-run lead. He says after the game: “This was an important game and you want your best players out there in an important game.” A reporter asks him about over-using Heilman and Sanchez, to which he says: “Those guys can go every night if I need them. I think I know my guys better than you.”

    Game 3: The best of the three games, Trachsel and Davies both dodge trouble all night but Willie takes out Trachsel in the fifth after he puts a man on second with one out in a tie game(80 pitches thrown and visably annoyed at being pulled as he leaves the game). In comes Oliver to give up the go-ahead run (charged to Trachsel) and over the next two innings, Oliver/Bradford/Feliciano are used to terrible effect by Willie, giving up an additional run. The Mets strike back against the Brave bullpen, but the rally is dealt a huge blow when, with a runner on second in the eighth and one out, Willie chooses Valentin over Franco/Woodward/Anyone-Not-Named-Jose-Valentin as the pinch hitter…and Valentin predictably strikes out (Willie later says: “I was looking at the L-R matchups. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. Jose is a veteran guy who has been there. He’ll bounce back; he just needs cuts.”). In the ninth, Willie brings in Heilman - who has pitched in three straight games - and he promptly gives up a few hits, is replaced by Sanchez (also appearing in his third straight), who gives up a dink single to lose the game. We are left confident about making the playoffs but also wondering whether Willie will be the difference between a playoff series win and a playoff loss.

    Mets Players: 2-0
    Mets Manager: 0-1

  4. Comment posted by Paladin on April 28, 2006 at 11:37 am (#35992)

    Yes, that’s right Mets (and Braves) fans, there will be no Victor Zambrano to give up five runs in the first two innings

    The only thing this guy should be doing is super-sizing my fries when I head into McDonalds this afternoon.

    I like the pitching matchups, and let’s face it, this Braves team is not that good. Get this club outta yer head boys. Bring the good wood, and pound them outta their own ballpark.

    Enough of this crap. As a fan, I want to see convincing victories over this team. Let’s ge it done!

  5. Comment posted by ROBmetfanatic on April 28, 2006 at 11:50 am (#35999)

    Hey every1 its friday. YES! anyway the mets should get 2 of 3. and im not waiting until i see it because we should beat the Braves this year.Yes they have won 14 straight division titles but come on look at the two teams. We have the better team, We have to stop questioning the capabilities that this team has. We should but im not sure doesnt sound confident. I say we get pedros start and Mr. human rain delay’s start. HIT ME BACK!!

  6. Comment posted by Brian S. on April 28, 2006 at 11:56 am (#36000)

    With Beltran 2-1 Without 1-2

    Dear Cliff,

    Please start hitting.

    Thanks.
    Brian

  7. Gravatar
  8. Comment posted by Confused on April 28, 2006 at 1:15 pm (#36016)

    zambrano might not be pitching this series, but next weekend at home, the probable pitchers will be trach, zam and bannister.

  9. Comment posted by MrJ on April 28, 2006 at 1:20 pm (#36017)

    Mets Players: 2-0
    Mets Manager: 0-1

    I wonder which manager would lead the Mets to the glorious 162-0 season that the Williebashers seem to think this team would give us if not for Randolph’s follies.

    If you want to blame Randolph for every loss, you must by the same token give him credit for the wins. As Bill Parcells loves to say: “You are what your record says you are.”

    Mets Players: 14-7.
    Mets Manager: 14-7.

    With Floyd batting sub-.200, Beltran out for 10 days, no offense from 2B/eight hole, a slumping Reyes and Zambrano every 5 days.

    Great job by the team, including the manager!

  10. Comment posted by sweetlew on April 28, 2006 at 2:00 pm (#36032)

    With Beltran 2-1 Without 1-2

    Dear Cliff,

    Please start hitting.

    I concurr on Beltran, if he plays all three games, we could sweep, but will probably go 2-1.

    I think Floyd found his stroke. He smashed that monster homerun in game two and missed an opposite field one by a couple of feet in game three.

    Here is why we come up big in this series:

    One Mr. Carlos Delgado. Career at the TED:

    14 Games, .412/.500/.863 with 5 HRs and 21 RBIs.

    THAT is hitting.

  11. Comment posted by sweetlew on April 28, 2006 at 2:06 pm (#36035)

    Speaking of Delgado:

    From Yahoo Sports:

    Mets first baseman Carlos Delgado is 7-for-14 with three homers and 10 RBIs lifetime against Smoltz

    Maybe that’s why we got him?

  12. Gravatar
  13. Comment posted by dptydwg420 on April 28, 2006 at 2:22 pm (#36041)

    Yup Lew…Delgado eats Braves pitching for lunch.

    Wow…I just looked at Jacobs line so far this year…he has done nothing this year outside of 2 or 3 big games.

  14. Gravatar
  15. Comment posted by dptydwg420 on April 28, 2006 at 2:24 pm (#36042)

    I love when met fans make predictions and bake-in how willie will screw up a game…great fans.

    I bet you guys will be pulling for him to screw up..so monday morning you can post how right you were.

    solid all around.

  16. Comment posted by Ed in Norfolk on April 28, 2006 at 2:24 pm (#36043)

    Please please please don’t have Zambrano pitch next Saturday at Shea. I have tix for that game. They should make Zambrano starts an orange/discount game. I paid gold prices!!!!!

  17. Comment posted by Brian S. on April 28, 2006 at 2:34 pm (#36045)

    Piazza’s 1999 and 2000 seasons are probably the best offensive seasons in Mets history. Take your pick:

    1999 .303 .361 .575 40 124
    2000 .324 .398 .614 38 113

    Delgado could challege them this year. He is an absolute monster. I could not believe that he was taking notes after his ABs. I have never seen that before. That kind of preparation does not come along very often, what a professional! I hope Reyes, Wright and Nady take notice.

  18. Comment posted by sweetlew on April 28, 2006 at 2:36 pm (#36046)

    Wow…I just looked at Jacobs line so far this year…he has done nothing this year outside of 2 or 3 big games.

    Last I looked he was sub-.200. Not too good.

  19. Comment posted by sweetlew on April 28, 2006 at 2:41 pm (#36047)

    Delgado could challege them this year. He is an absolute monster.

    A week or so ago during a rain delay I posted a list of offensive records I thought cuold fall this year.

    I said I didn’t think anyone would hit 40 HRs.

    I think Delgado read my post and is going to prove me wrong.

    I also think he shatters 124 RBIs. He has too many good hitters around him, and he will play a lot more games than Pizza did in 1999.

  20. Gravatar
  21. Comment posted by dptydwg420 on April 28, 2006 at 2:51 pm (#36048)

    Wow…I just looked at Jacobs line so far this year…he has done nothing this year outside of 2 or 3 big games.

    Last I looked he was sub-.200. Not too good.

    Yea right Lew…but don’t forget as so so many ppl told us…Jacobs will pretty much equal Delgado’s output this year and the next few at a much cheaper cost…HA!

    Where are all those people now? Oh wait…there the ones that are still clinging to the Benson trade as part of the worst mets moves ever.

    Hold on tight people…that’s your last thing to hold onto.

    Or maybe when Benson starts to pitch worse, which he will, maybe Seo will rebound, then u guys can go back to attacking that trade.

    Go mets! I want Smoltz’s head on a plate!!!! 7PM can’t get here fast enough…get me outta this office and to a HD TV!!!!!!

  22. Comment posted by chris in ga on April 28, 2006 at 3:32 pm (#36053)

    Mets first baseman Carlos Delgado is 7-for-14 with three homers and 10 RBIs lifetime against Smoltz

    Sweetlew, If you do some more research, you’ll see that Delgado has done well OPS wise against 4 of the 5 Braves Starters (Smoltz, Thomson, Sosa & Hudson). We saw what he did with SOsa and that shot he hit in the ninth that the wind disturbed at shea vs. hudson so hopefully he can make some magic happen against SMoltz and Thomson. Also, Dalgado has high ops against 4 of the Nats starter (Ortiz, Hernandez, Patterson & Armas), a high ops against Moehler in fla and high ops against 2 of the phhilies starters too (lieber and Myers)

  23. Comment posted by sweetlew on April 28, 2006 at 3:42 pm (#36054)

    Also, Dalgado has high ops against 4 of the Nats starter (Ortiz, Hernandez, Patterson & Armas), a high ops against Moehler in fla and high ops against 2 of the phhilies starters too (lieber and Myers)

    I would imagine that a hitter of Delgado’s caliber has a high OPS against almost every pitcher in the ML!

    I have been thinking about Delgado, and I think he is going to be gold for us, throughout his contract. Reason: because he will only make the hall of fame if he is huge over the next three seasons.

    Delgado will hit his 400th HR this year, he might make it all the way to 410. We have him for 2 more years. If he mashes for us, we will either extend him, or he will sign to go back to the AL as a 1B/DH. If he fails to mash for us, depending how badly, he might not get a shot at 500 HRs.

    I figure, there is no reason to doubt he will hit 30+ each year of his contract (I doubt a guy with his track record will fall apart all of a sudden - he is not a catcher). He could be at 470 HRs or so by the time his contract is up with us.

    I know I am breaking out the crystal ball here, but I think he will stay driven for us to ensure he is a HOFer. He is not in yet, and if he is average, he will not make it. If he keeps hitting like he has, he will be in.

  24. Gravatar
  25. Comment posted by dptydwg420 on April 28, 2006 at 3:56 pm (#36060)

    know I am breaking out the crystal ball here, but I think he will stay driven for us to ensure he is a HOFer. He is not in yet, and if he is average, he will not make it. If he keeps hitting like he has, he will be in.

    Honestly Lew…I view Delgado’s motivation over the next 3 years will be to get to the playoffs and win it all…he just doesnt’ come off as a me-first kinda guy.

    I’m sure the HOF is important to him, but I think he’s more focused on getting his first trip to the postseason than anything else.

  26. Comment posted by Welb on April 28, 2006 at 6:26 pm (#36086)

    My thought’s….Brave’s bring out the broom and sweep’em with Chipper having a big series,
    Crushing the Met’s and their fans again….And all of the world is returned to normalcy once
    again….And that’s why I love this game….

  27. Comment posted by sweetlew on April 28, 2006 at 7:15 pm (#36091)

    My thought’s….Brave’s bring out the broom and sweep’em with Chipper having a big series,
    Crushing the Met’s and their fans again….And all of the world is returned to normalcy once
    again….And that’s why I love this game….

    Whatever dude. 9-12, that’s all I have to say.

  28. Comment posted by Tom Ace / Tom in the QC on April 28, 2006 at 7:34 pm (#36093)

    I’m not getting the game in Charlotte because of the da[i][/i]mn Hurricanes playoff hockey game. It will be tape delay but by that time I will be out getting drunk.

  29. Comment posted by metswin2006 on April 28, 2006 at 7:45 pm (#36094)

    Steroids might get kill you and get you suspended, but SPEED kills, Go Reyes

  30. Comment posted by jordan f on April 28, 2006 at 8:33 pm (#36100)

    I’m a little afraid that I’m starting to think Kaz Matsui isn’t awful…

    Nice to see old man Smoltzy knocked on his butt :)

  31. Comment posted by ROBmetfanatic on April 28, 2006 at 10:24 pm (#36131)

    Piazza’s 1999 and 2000 seasons are probably the best offensive seasons in Mets history. Take your pick:

    1999 .303 .361 .575 40 124
    2000 .324 .398 .614 38 113

    Brian,No doubt these are sick numbers! Personally these are some of the best seasons anyones had in the history of the team. But my favorite season for a met is John Olerud’s 1998 season. He hit .354/.447/.551 with 22 bombs and 92 rbis. HIT ME BACK!!

  32. Comment posted by Donal on April 28, 2006 at 10:41 pm (#36134)

    So, welb, how’s that sweep coming along?

    Also, can David Wright name his firstborn Turner?

  33. Comment posted by Emad on April 28, 2006 at 11:07 pm (#36138)

    Also, can David Wright name his firstborn Turner?

    David and I were disappointed when Horacio Ramirez got hurt. DW MURDERS Braves pitching in general, but Horacio has David Wright’s name tatooed on his ass.

  34. Comment posted by Jimmy C on April 29, 2006 at 1:10 am (#36144)

    DW MURDERS Braves pitching in general, but Horacio has David Wright’s name tatooed on his ass.

    I got a good laugh out of that one. So true!

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