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February 9, 2006
2006 Mets Payroll Picture
A couple of months ago, after countless requests to do so, we finally introduced the MetsGeek Payroll Spreadsheet (also available via a link on the right sidebar), our take on the Mets’ payroll situation. With the abundance of player movement in today’s MLB it’s nice to be able to see everything at once in an organized and meaningful way. The spreadsheet categorizes the Mets’ ballplayers according to role: Starting Pitchers, Starting Lineup, Relief Pitchers, Bench, and Everyone Else. Other sites, such as the extraordinary Hardball Dollars, itemize players alphabetically. This is very useful when looking for a single player, but grouping the players by job function allows us to easily see how the team’s resources are being allocated. While the Mets have been touted by the press as a much improved team, Mets GM Omar Minaya has taken some flack for the “resources” he used to acquire the talent that he has assembled. He has traded off some good young players to be sure, but many point to the deep pockets of the Wilpons as the key to Minaya’s success (or at least his perceived success). We’ve certainly seen him throw around a lot of simoleons the past two offseasons. To wit: [x] Carlos Beltran, $119 million Minaya acquired four elite players in the last 14 months and he spent a lot of money doing it. Despite those additions and the hefty financial burdens that came with them the Mets have a bit of payroll flexibility right now. Starting Rotation Martinez and Tom Glavine will make $22.5 million combined in 2006, about half of the Marlins’ project salary for their entire team. The rest of the Mets’ rotation — Aaron Heilman, Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano — will make around $6 million combined. Meanwhile, the Yankees will pay #3 starter Carl Pavano $8 million next year plus another $7 million for Jaret Wright, a pitcher with no spot in the rotation as it stands now. The bottom three of the Cardinals’ rotation — Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis and Sidney Ponson — will make $10.15 million in 2006. As Andrew pointed out yesterday, the Cards and the Mets have roughly equivalent three-through-five starters, and the Mets will spend around $4 million less for theirs. Martinez, $14M Glavine, $8.5M Heilman, ~$500K Trachsel, $2.5M Zambrano, $3M --------------- Total: $28.5M Starting Lineup Beltran and Delgado will combine to “earn” $27.5 million next season. The other six starting position players will make around five million bucks less than that, and that’s including Kaz Matsui’s ridiculous $8 million price tag. The Mets will overpay exorbitantly for Matsui and probably overpay a bit for Paul Lo Duca, but Cliff Floyd should hit well enough to earn his paycheck. The Mets really benefit from their three young starters Jose Reyes, David Wright and Victor Diaz (assuming Diaz gets the nod over Xavier Nady). These three will make less than $2 million between them since they are not yet eligible for arbitration and are basically indentured servants (if you can call a $500K salary for playing baseball indentured servitude). Beltran, $14M Delgado, $13.5M Diaz, ~$500K Floyd, $6.5M Lo Duca, $6.25M Matsui, $8M Reyes, ~$500K Wright, ~$500K ---------------- Total: $49.75M Relief Pitchers Billy Wagner got the big bucks, clocking in at $10.5 million in 2006. The rest of the bullpen — likely six pitchers — will likely combine to make less than that. The Mets have a lot of cheap, young and reasonably talented bullpen arms, acquired through free agency, trade, and from within the organization. They even have one pitcher, Mitch Wylie, who was plucked from San Francisco in the Rule V draft. At this point there isn’t much chance that Wylie will stick with the ballclub, since he is required to remain on the active roster for the entire season or be returned to the Giants. Jorge Julio ($2.53 million) and Chad Bradford ($1.40 million) are the only middle relievers who will earn more than a million dollars. Four of Heath Bell, Yusaku Iriki, Juan Padilla, Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll (and possibly a lefty outside of this group) will likely make the club, and they will all earn very reasonable salaries. More good news: with the exception of Iriki, all of these pitchers are on the good side of 30. Conversely, Kyle Farnsworth will earn $6.25 million this season and turns 30 in April. Wagner, $10.75M Bradford, $1.4M Julio, $2.5M Iriki, $750K Reliever #1, ~$500K Reliever #2, ~$500K Reliever #3, ~$500K Reliever #4, ~$500K ------------------- Total: $17.2M Bench Minaya received some criticism for signing Julio Franco to a two-year deal worth $1.1 million per season, but Franco has been a very productive player for the Braves the past few years and there’s not a lot of precedent to suggest that a man’s age 48 season will be appreciably worse than his age 47 season. The Mets’ bench is very solid, very cheap and very versatile. They will spend roughly four million dollars on five players (if they carry 12 pitchers), and they appear to be pretty strong coming off the bench. They have a first baseman (Franco), two middle infielders (Jose Valentin and Chris Woodward, who can also play outfield), a catcher (Ramon Castro) and an outfielder/first baseman (Xavier Nady, should he not win the starting right fielder spot). Franco, $1.1M Castro, $800K Valentin, $910K Woodward, $825K Nady, ~$500K --------------- Total: $4.2M Conclusions Not including coaches, benefits, and the rest of the players on the 40-man roster (most of whom make but a pittance), the Mets are looking at a payroll of around $100 million. That’s a whole lot of money to most of us, but it will put the Mets well behind the Yankees and Red Sox, and probably a couple of other teams, too. It also gives them some wiggle room should a high-priced player or two become available prior to the trading deadline. Omar Minaya has done well to spend big bucks where he had to, but he also unloaded a lot of money by trading off Kris Benson and Mike Cameron, and Mike Piazza’s $15 million came off the books when he became a free agent. To supplement the big money contracts the Mets will be giving a lot of playing time to a group of cheap young players, some already proven (Wright, Reyes to some extent), some with good upsides (Diaz, Sanchez, Bell), and all looking to make an impact on a team that many believe will be challenging for the pennant come October. Eric Simon has far too much time on his hands. He sleeps upside-down, keeps people as pets, and can be found on the internets at Amazin' Avenue or bothered directly at eric@metsgeek.com. 83 Responses to “2006 Mets Payroll Picture”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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The Wilpons have not publicly stated that there is a payroll ceiling for this team, but the trades of Cameron and Benson suggest that they are comfortable starting the season at the aforementioned $100 million. That’s all good so long as they are indeed willing to cough up more for a difference-making pitcher at some point during the season (We’re not winning the World Series without one). And they’d better be, given the big contracts that will expire after this season (including Art Howe’s!!). That should leave plenty of budget (especially with the new network in full swing, and at least one more young core player, ie AHern/Milledge if they’re still Mets) to really build a powerhouse in ‘07.
We could have had a great team without shelling out all those dollars. Moreover, the team would have been young and gotten better and better over the next few years. With players like 34 year old players like Delgado, LoDuca, Martinez, we will probably be competitive this year, and geriatric the next paying high salaries why they play less and less, and their performance drops.
Basically the payroll gives Omar flexebility in case he wants to add a player.
Also, I love how the media has this perception that the Mets just spend, spend, spend, and have such a high payroll, yet… the payroll remains the same as last year and even lower than the 2002 version.
Omar got into a good situation with all the expiring contracts and productive minor leaguers on the roster.
Next season, Matsui, Floyd, Traschel? and maybe even Glavine are off the books.
I mean, guys like Reyes and Wright will have salary increases but its still good to know the Mets have about $20 million coming off the books next season.
Delgado has shown no signs of slowing. LoDuca isn’t making Jorge Posada money and is only signed until 2007. A team could do worse. Although I believe Pedro will be a shell of himself the final year of his contract, (if he can pitch at all) by then, who knows what will happen? What pitchers will have emerged by then? Pelfrey? Humber? Some guy that isn’t even with the organization? Shoot, it’s hard enough to look ahead several months, nevermind three years.
Are the Mets likely to be stuck with a “bad” contract between Wagner, Pedro and Delgado? Sure. But outside of those three, I don’t see a “Jorge Posada” type disaster where the Mets will be paying a player ELITE money for mediocre production.
Fortunately, Haz Matsui and Tom Glavine (not to mention Cliff Floyd) are in their contract years. That’s another 25M the Mets can reinvest in better, younger, less “collapsable” contracts. As much as I love Cliff, does anyone in hog heaven think he makes it through an age 34 season without a stint on the DL? Again. The Mets are in the enviable position of being able to recycle money and invest it in superior talent. Go ask the Chokees how important that is!
I know y’all at MGeeks have stayed w it, but I believe despite the contention that Trax does in fact have attainable escalators w IP that could net close to 7M. If he made that, I think he’d need 220 or so IP.
Its not a one time escalator, there are many gradual ones. 150-220 IP the 220 ip would be worth an extra 4.5.
I think you mean what pitchers will be traded for new 35 yr old stopgaps. Your next line is more on the money for this org as it is:
I think it’ll have to be.
Contreras ain’t comin’ to no Mets…
But seriously, Williams wants a young arm or Lastings Milledge (KW’s on crack, that’s not happening). Humber is recovering from TJ and Pelfrey can’t be traded.
Us Metaholics are safe… this year at least.
Soler, Scobie, Parnell, Bannister traded =s empty cupboard.
Soler and Bannister won’t be traded. I know this because neither of them have any “real” value. And if they pitch well enough to have value, there would be no reason to trade them.
Omar wants to get younger. You can see it in his moves. Other than Delgado and Wagner (elite players, you can’t deny this) what aged, overpriced contract has he brought in?
Schmoll, Sanchez, Maine and Julio are all under 28. LoDuca is a rather disappointing acquisition, but the contract is reasonable compared to Jorge Posada’s monstrous albatross.
There aren’t very many good catchers around. LoDuca isn’t great but he’s pretty durable and won’t completely suck. His career OBP is .340. Castro is a good backup with a little pop. Catcher won’t be a disaster.
Disappointing in that we had to trade a good pitching prospect for him. I won’t be losing sleep over the deal.
Besides, if I had to choose between LoDuca for two years or Molina and Ramon Hernandez for four (remember, at the time Molina had high demands), LoDuca would be the clear choice.
Interesting — the only really ridiculous contract the Mets still have is Matsui. They are overpaying some guys (ie, Glavine, Beltran, Wagner) but that Matsui contract is the only one that is utterly ridiculous.
The Mets are fairly lucky that they have so many contributors making almost no money. Wright, Reyes, Diaz, and Heilman are all super young. Floyd, Castro, and Trachsel are making far too little money. That counterbalances for the handful of superstar contracts that they are paying to Martinez, Beltran, Wagner and Delgado.
Hopefully, we’ll soon have a couple guys like Bannister, Milledge, and Pelfrey also providing salary relief. Just another reason to continue to have building from within as your organizational philosophy, and then make signings to supplement them.
I think we’ll all be very happy with Lo Duca. Those of us that know how to be happy and what to reasonably expect from a catcher.
I’m tired of ppl going on and on about how bad an acquisition that was and throws out some LoDuca stats and states how bad he is. Why? Because we are all spoiled by watching the greatest offensive catcher of all time.
A catcher’s primary job on a baseball is to handle the pitching staff and every pitcher that has been asked about LoDuca goes crazy with praise. Does LoDuca need to throw out some more runners than a 25% clip? Yes…even he admitted that on WFAN and he also said he had some trouble with his mechanics last year and would work to get better. 35% throwouts vs 25% is not that big a deal, 1 out of 10 baserunners. I’d rather have 35% but can live with 25%+.
Either way this guy is supposedly tough as nails, a NY Guy, a leader, great clubhouse presence and knows how to handle a pitching staff.
Molina is fat has no work ethic and last year was a fluke for him, yea the Angels fought real hard to retain him…Ramon Hernandez is a pu**y who won’t even block the plate in the playoffs…Bruce Bochy didn’t want him back at all!!! what does that tell you?
I think the only other option the mets had at catcher was letting castro start and using a kid as a backup….I think castro will still get lots of PA’s and give LoDuca much needed rest.
All I’m saying is that this guy is a total gamer is if this team makes it to October…Paul LoDuca will have a lot to do with that.
To be honost, Dptydwg420, LoDuca doesn’t really get mad about the offense, although I’ll dig up stats to make him look worse BUT what really got me kinda mad was that he wans’t much of an improvement from Piazza defensively.
I was REALLY loooking forward to a season with a good defensive catcher. Just to see how it feels. I was okay with the catcher batting last, that’s how I envisioned it. And I was kinda rooting for Castro to just be the starter afterall… he would be batting last and the offense is NOT that serious.
Hey - how many homeruns is Mo gonna hit for $2mm?
BBFDB…you raise some valid points…I was honestly also very content with Castro as our starter, I thought he deserved a shot…but Omar went out and traded a decent prospect for LoDuca…what does that tell you what they think of Castro? I know Pedro loved pitching to him but maybe other pitchers did not….who knows…but I think Castro vs. LoDuca is an interesting comparison.
I agree he’s not a great improvement…but I really don’t think Molina or Hernandez are that much better. Ramon hernandez is so lame and has no heart,…Bochy called him out after the NLDS for not blocking the plate TWICE. Do we want a guy that won’t block the plate in the playoffs? Molina had to go to Canada to get a job…It was fairly apparent that Omar was not impressed with either of them…I’ve never even heard of dual contract offers…craziness.
I think LoDuca is better defensively than advertised, that’s all I’m saying. At the midpoint of this season we’ll have to have this conversation again…but this guy LoDuca is a field general on the diamond…with the potential for 3 kids on our infield and a not superb defensive 1B, I really think we need someone who takes charge behind the plate.
I think you guys are insane if you want castro getting a chance to start
1999 .179/.282/.328 in 67 abs
2000 .239/.318/.312 in 138 abs
2001 .182/.250/.182 in 11 abs
2002 .238/.332/.445 in 101 abs
2003 .283/.333/.604 in 53 abs
2004 .135/.231/.260 in 96 abs
2005 .244/.321/.435 in 209 abs
Career .222/.304/.387
I agree he’s good defensively, but his numbers offensively are absolutely horrible. Theres a reason hes been backup his whole career. The guy is a .222 career hitter.
Lo Duca career .285/.339/.417
Lo Duca should clearly be catching the majority of the games. Although I wouldnt mind castro taking some of the games since Lo Duca tends to wear down at the end of the season. But there’s no debate who should be starting.
Why people want to hate on LoDuca is crazy to me. Just lame Met fans seeing a glass 1/2 empty I guess. LoDuca was the unqualified leader of his Dodger teams before they stupidly traded him at the deadline to Fla for Encarnation(?)
Hate on him now if you want but we’re gonna love him at Shea this year
I don’t disagree with you John…Castro’s career numbers do not impress. He’s also had a ton of personal problems and really not many seasons of consistent playing time. I honestly think last year is more indicative of the player he is than his career line suggest.
I just think Castro deserved a shot at the starting job after his fine play last year. that is all. If he started this year and got 300+ ABs or so and you gave me the over/under on his career line…I would bet heavy on the over.
But since LoDuca is now here…without a doubt he is the starter and castro is the backup…we are in agreement.
At least until the All-Star break. After that is another story.
Brooklyn Battle, happy to hear another voice of reason….And that Dodger team absolutely fell apart after they traded LoDuca.
The major league stats paint an incomplete picture of Castro:
He was drafted in the first round by the Astros way back in 1994, straight out of HS. What stud. He then progressed through the minors as you might expect, getting to AAA as a 23 year old. For some reason, his peak in GP was only 115.
He hit well enough in AAA .256/.311/.450 to get called up to the majors. His next season in AAA he hit .335/.380/.628!!! but for some reason never reallly got regular playing time. He didn’t represent well at the MLB level in those two seasons, hitting around .240/.310/.320
So he’s been jerked around a lot until now. As you have already seen, his previous max of AB’s in a ML season was only 138, and that was in 2000. Not the right way to treat a stud prospect. I wonder why he was abandoned so fast (huge head?)
He’s only 30 this season… I wouldn’t have been horrified if he was our starter. He has a decent shot at being good enough to play every day with good PT.
He was abandoned by FL cause of the sexual assault charges filed against him.
I like the huge head reason better…too much money on caps!!!!
I guess salary wise, these two flip-flops are a wash, but can anyone for the love of God tell me why they are still so high on Diaz? I mean I was as high as everyone else on him, but I think you are all in for a disappointment. First, the guy plays terrible defense. Second, he is a bone head on the bases. Third, his strike out rate is alarmingly high. Fourth, his walk rate is alarmingly low. Fifth, he seems to be a big candidate for eating himself out of a job. Yes he has torn up the minors, and yes he hit .330 in the winter league. But let’s look a little deeper than that:
1) 2005 - 82 Ks in 280 ABs.
2) 2004 - 15 Ks to 1 BB in his first cup of coffee (I was willing to give him that!)
3) 2005 -2006 WL - 29 Ks in 115 ABs and a horrible 10:1 K:BB ratio! That isn’t even against major league pitching! Add in the fact that (with the exception of a hot streak in the play-offs) he showed very little power (10 XBHs in 115 ABs), and his winter production was not very good - even if he hit .330.
I think you are all setting yourselves up for disappointment with good old Vic Diaz. I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it. I still think it will be Nady (better defender, better baserunner, better contact hitter) who will get the RF job and will be poised to breakout.
sweetlew-
You know winter leagues are hard to project, man. I don’t know the size off the parks. I don’ knwo the ability of the players. Is it a hitters or pitchers league?
All I know about Vic Diaz is this: he’s always hit. At every level. At any time. With LA, with NY, in Bing, in Norfolk, and yes, in the majors. He’s never been a liability, ever, anywhere. I can’t really back up with stats right now, but he’s still a baby. He reminds me a little bit of Ortiz when Minnesota gave up on him.
Was one season (with a great March) where he was jerked around after Cameron came back, REALLY enough to change your opinion?
I think in the bigger picture Omar has mismanaged this off season and I shutter to think about his next big move which looms on the horizon – which is all but certain given the very large payroll savings he has achieved thus far.
This off season has really netted us only two important additions: Wagner and Delgado. Wagner was a must have and while Omar somewhat overpaid (in years primarily) his likely production will be a significant upgrade for our closer role from recent years past. The Delgado trade wasn’t as much of a slam dunk because of all of the young talent that was shipped out for essentially a market value contract. That said, Delgado should provide a big offensive upgrade at a position that we’ve seen little production from in the past - even though we got older and put a fair amount more on the books in this transaction, there was a strong short term benefit.
Beyond those moves, Omar has done very little to improve the team. The LoDuca trade was just ridiculous. Omar completely misread the market (ie, the buyers) for catchers. He shot his bullet far too early. If he had remained patient and signed another back-up catcher in the interim (as a potential platoon with Castro), he would have been in the driver’s seat when Molina came begging for a one year low valued deal. Instead he made the trade for LoDuca (which would have been available for him throughout the entire off-season and spring training if he ever wanted to go down that road). No one else would have traded for LoDuca at $13.5mm for two years let alone given up a top prospect in the process. Omar was simply in a rush to finish his business on the catching position and let the “perceived” market (which was not the actual market) dictate its terms. Really, he was taken.
Beyond getting poorer value in the catching position, Omar also traded down the team’s overall pitching talent - giving up two starters (one above avg and one avg) for two questionable relievers with “potential”. Although the team’s pen needed to be addressed, Omar gave up more than he got back. Sanchez (based on his numbers) looks like an average reliever and Julio looks a lot worse. But what about their potential? I’m hoping as much as the next Met fan that they grow into great set up men, but betting on the come and giving up more near term value in the process is always a risky proposition. And despite Omar’s moves in the bullpen, the role of a left handed specialist is still uncertain. Rather than compiling the current group of relievers through trades and jettisoning two important parts of the team’s best assets (its starting pitching staff), wouldn’t it have been better to use some of the planned payroll savings on “buying” relievers. Gordon, Farnsworth, Eyre, Howry and others were all available to help deepen the pen and Mike Myers would have made a great LOOGY. Thinning out the starting rotation for the quality we got back for the pen was a poor move. While shooting his bullet too early was a problem around the catching solution, not firing it until it was too late was the problem around the pen. Without a better sense of the market for relievers (as say the Cubs had), Omar let many good candidates for the pen sign elsewhere and then felt compelled to overtrade for young relievers with “potential”. A very bad read of the market made worse by poor trades.
Second base? A position that desperately needed attention got none. Going into the season with Matsui as the starter (in a must win year) is a terrible mistake. Grudzelanek was available for a short term contract at a reasonable rate, but Omar refused to bring him on board until he could get rid of Matsui (and who is their right mind would take Matsui without a very hefty subsidy). So while Omar lavished extra millions on his top signings, he wouldn’t shell out a couple million for a very steady (glove and bat) second baseman. Or - rather than trade for LoDuca – wouldn’t it have been great to get Luis Castillo from the Marlins? That would have given us a gold glove fielder and a true leadoff hitter – a perfect solution in the “must win” year. With all of the need to upgrade second base, Omar’s reluctance to do anything just made no sense.
Right Field? Diaz and Nady (a righty/righty platoon?) – does that answer really make sense for a must win year? I don’t think so. Getting a veteran left handed hitter to platoon with Diaz would have made some sense. Instead we lose a pre-eminent fielder and good hitter in Cameron for a questionable platoon. The position is weaker than it was last year.
His major bench signings were also confounding. Franco for two years and more than $2mm and Valentine for nearly $1mm were very generous to say the least. Especially when you consider we could have used those proceeds to sign Grudzelanek and relegate Matsui to the back-up infielder role.
In the end the team is somewhat better for next year (based on the Wagner and Delgado moves only), but weakened in the longer term with the loss of a lot of young talent. When you consider the thin starting rotation, weaker RF production, and the big hole at second, the team is hardly a shoo-in to win the division.
What’s probably worse than all the minor moves Omar has made so far is the one yet to come. With the payroll so far under last year’s total, it is almost certain that Omar will make one more move for a big player before the season starts. And all of the names that have been bandied about (Ramirez, Zito, et al) will come at a huge cost both in more young talent that the team will give up and large contracts it will inherit.
Yes the Braves, Phillies and Marlins have gotten weaker this off season, but I don’t think we’ve gotten that much stronger to start printing playoff tickets – and it’s a shame, because with a little more fortitude and better foresight, Omar could have assembled a much better lot not only for this year’s campaign, but many more to come.
Lo Duca wasn’t traded for Encarnacion, he was traded with Encarnacion (and Mota), in exchange for Brad Penny, Hee Seop Choi and Billy Murphy, a minor league pitcher the Dodgers then flipped to Arizona along with Koyle Hill for Steve Finley. And the Dodgers didn’t exactly fall apart after trading Lo Duca–they won the NL West that year.
Despite all the criticism of that trade, the Dodgers won games at almost exactly the same rate after the trade as they did before, which is especially good given that the centerpiece of the deal, Brad Penny, got hurt, and Choi was benched after only about 10 games.
Diaz’ Career Minor League Line:
.304/.352/.486
Diaz’ Career Major League Line:
.263/.328/.477
Diaz’ last full season with consistent playing time:
2004 - Norfolk - .292/.332/.491 24 HR, 94 RBI, 31/133 bb/k
His K:BB ratio improvement from 2004-2005:
2004 - 32 walks, 148 strikeouts
2005 - 44 walks, 129 strikeouts
He’s not going to win any patience awards, but how can you NOT love it? His AAA and MLB on-base numbers both improved over 2004, and he’s only 24!!!! Considering this is a site that overrates prospects that we know nothing about(Anderson Hernandez, Alay Soler) why no love for a guy who has already proved it???
Castro is a back-up. He’s a back-up for a reason. A lot of players produce in limited playing time specifically because their playing time is limited. Pitchers don’t know how to pitch to them and they tend to jsut see the ball and hit the ball because they don’t want to just get up there and walk in their few opportunities. I remember people thinking Ty Wigginton was a good idea for 3rd because of his production in limited playing time. Same thing for Timo Perez. The list goes on. Castro is NOT a starter.
I’m willing to give Diaz a chance and I actually like the guy…I just enjoy making fun of him for some reason….what kills me are his lack of baseball instincts…he can hit no doubt, but does he know how to play baseball? i dont think so.
He reminds me of a monster roger cedeno.
I hope ur right JRRM and he busts out this year for us…I have a funny feeling he’s gonna be trade bait for somebody…so keep pumping him up maybe rival GMs will pick up on it!!!!
James…On Lo Duca…I meant to say their piching staff fell apart not the entire team my bad…you don’t by chance have cumulative ERA numbers before and after his trade for the LA pitching staff?
Wow Jason, you must be much smarter than me, because I don’t know if he’s good enough to start or not. Can I borrow your crystal ball for a while?
All I know is that he was a big time prospect with a hose, who never really panned out, nor does it look like he really had a chance to. I don’t know why. I like what I see from him, although I expect that probably won’t be better than a .250/.310/.450 guy with good defense. Is that enough to make a starter?
I’m still confused by the payroll spreadsheet. Is the 2005 payroll column representative of the 2005 payroll? I don’t see Looper or Piazza in there?
I second these thoughts….maybe I am just pessimistic on this area. I guess my problem with Diaz is the only thing he can do is hit. That is fine if your are a DH or your name in Manny, but unless Diaz can dial it up a lot, I am not sure he is going to be all that….but again, I hope I’m wrong…..
As long as he can handle a staff, can actually reach 2nd base on a fly and control the plate hells yes that’s good enough to start!!!!
A catcher’s number one priority in baseball is handling pitchers and his overall defense!!!
Any offense is secondary…we have all been spoiled!!!
I think LoDuca will be fine. Is he the best catcher in the league, of course not. But he’ll be adequate for now. I think the only concern is if Willie uses him in the 2 hole. I think one exciting thing about the Mets and what puts a touch of nerves on opposing pitchers is when the top of the lineup is stacked w speed. LoDuca #2 would screw w that equation. He seems to be a winner that pitchers like throwing to, so that is a huge plus. Lets just hope he doesn’t trip Beltran while he’s jogging in front of him.
If Trax throws 220 innings this year, I’d be happy to have him back for appx 7 million in ‘07. That’s a ton of innings from your #4 or #5 starter. The problem right now is that he’s our #3, and is a huge question mark after the back surgery.
We seriously need to add a front-line starter at some point if we’re going to make any noise in the post-season. (Assuming we get there which is reasonably possible but by no means guarantee)
Regarding the LoDuca discussion, I don’t see what all the fuss is about. Between he and Castro we’ll be fine. You can win the WS with solid if unspectacular catching, but you certainly can’t win it without at least two aces in your starting rotation.
Diaz’ ML line:
.263/.328/.477
Rondell White:
.289/.343/.472
Brian Jordan:
.283/.334/.457
Carl Everett:
.274/.344/.469
If we had any of those guys in RF there would be no contest. Not to mention Vic should exceed all of those career rates once he gets some PT.
J- I think if you get to the postseason, it’d be bc Glavine, Trax and Heilman pitched as well as can be expected. 86 seemed like a confluence of career (type) years for the starters (as well as Chisox last yr), and you need that anytime you expect great things. If the Mets get to postseason, it will be bc Glavine has been a 2nd ace, and the others were also very lights out. So I don’t think they need to add anything, unless come June they are teetering and noone has stepped up, then you think about it, but so far noone has not stepped up.
I hope you’re right JRRM…Victor Diaz is one of the biggest x factors for the mets this year at least offensively speaking.
I agree. We’ve already made great strides with our offense, but Diaz could really tip the scales. Beltran-Delgado-Wright-Floyd is a pretty fearsome middle of the order, but all dominant offensive teams are deeper than that. If we had five guys with the potential to slug out 25+ homers, we’d be in some rarified company.
If he doesn’t develop, we’ll still score some runs. But if he does, not only will this year look AWESOME, but we’ll have more guaranteed help down the road once Floyd and Delgado are gone. The more reliable, homegrown pieces, the better.
I totally agree…if Diaz has a 20/80+ year for us and Jose learns how to get the hell on base (.350+)….the mets will have the most potent lineup in all the NL.
Perhaps, but say we make the postseason based on one great year from a starter (most likely Pedro) and solid but not spectacular years from 2 or 3 others (maybe 12-14 wins from Glav, 10-12 from Heil and Trax and 10 or so from the composite #5’s). Post-season berths are not easy to come by. I don’t want to let one go by the boards without two studs in the rotation.
You are definitely more confident in the current rotation than I am! I think we have enough to be in the thick of things, but there are just too many age and consistency issues in the starting 5 as now constituted. And if we reach October with these 5 (or some combo of in-house options), Pedro and Glav will be two old arms at the end of a long season.
I know other GM’s will hold onto their aces as long as possible, hoping to make playoff runs of their own, and that an ace won’t come cheap (it’ll likely cost Milledge and more), but if you’ve got a shot at World Championship (and we’re close!) you’ve got to take it while you can.
Lest anyone misunderstand, I am by no means talking about adding a Benson or a V Zambrano. I mean a legit #1-type starter.
Re: 31
The Dodgers’ team ERA in August and September was about 4.14, verus about 4.03 for the season, so there was an increase, but not a huge one. By month, their ERA was great in August, at 3.44, and lousy in September, at 4.84. Regardless, there’s simply no way to attribute the failings of Dodger starters in September to the trade of Paul lo Duca. One clear cause was that the player they got for Lo Duca, Brad Penny, was hurt, and threw only 3 innings. His starts went to Hideo Nomo, who had an ERA over 9 that month in four starts.
LoDuca is 100% to bat second. It is the perfect Willy move. I can just hear him explaining “LoDuca is the type of guy that can handle the bat.” Same reasoning as Cairo.
I think all indications are, we will get .260-.280 20+ and ~80 from a Diaz/Nady RF. That is not a stretch for those guys. I think I am going to change my screen name to Vic Diaz MVP.
James…Good stat finds man.
Thanks. Your analysis is on point.
There are two types of teams that make successful post season runs:
1) Teams with great front of the rotation starters - 2001 Diamondbacks; 2004 Red Sox, 2005 White Sox
OR:
2) Teams with decent starting pitching and superb bullpens. Late-90’s Yankees (particularly 96 & 98), 2002 Angles.
The 2006 Mets will not be the former unless Heilman pitches like he did out of the bullpen and either Pedro or Glavine pretend it is 1996 instead of 2006. But, the Mets can easily be in the second category. We will have solid if not good starting pitching, and the bullpen, if everything comes together, could be lights out from the 6th inning on — Sanchez and Wagner should give us one of if not the best 8-9 inning pen in the majors. Add in Julio, Bradford, Bell, et al in the 6-7th inning, and the pen is deep and talented. Granted there are things that need to come together, but it is possible, and maybe even probable that this bullpen becomes the best in the NL, if not the majors.
Add in what should be a deep and versatile offense (speed, power, average) and I think this team has a great shot to come together for a deep postseason run.
The 2005 column represents that year’s salary for each player. It doesn’t reflect the payroll for the 2005 Mets, but rather the corresponding 2005 salaries of the 2006 Mets.
Slew, the 96 Yanks won the WS with a 1-2 punch of Pettite and Cone at the top of their rotation, both having had ace-like regular seasons. Jimmy Key was the third starter. That’s dominant, not decent.
The 98 Yanks were historically dominant, with Mssrs Pettite and Cone joined by El Duque, Boomer Wells and Hideki Irabu.
And those bullpens were perhaps the best of all time!
Do we need to be that good to win the WS this year? Likely not, but I will stand by my opinion that our current rotation is definitely not World Championship caliber, regardless of how well the question marks in the ‘pen pan out.
It pains me to laud those Yankee teams, but I didn’t bring them up. I’m just defending my opinion on the rotation.
Yes and no…I remember watching every single one of the play-off and series games that year. Very rarely did a starter go beyond 6 innigs. Rivera pitched the 7th and 8th, and Wettland slammed the door in the 9th (hence his WS MVP award). It was not like they got the type of starting pitching that Arizona (Johnson, Schilling), FLA (Beckett, Burnett, Willis), and Boston (Pedro, Schilling) got.
Besides, in 1996, Jimmy Key was tailing off, and the Yanks had no one after him. Cone was solid in 96 but not as good as 98 and Petitte was a rookie (maybe 2nd year) in 96 and was not really that strong of a pitcher yet.
It pains me to laud those guys too, but the 1996 Yankee team was the most un-Yankee Yankee team of all time. A bunch of good, solid ball players without any big egos or superstars.
im gonna join the loduca supporters. Yea we gave up some good prospects for him, hernandez and molina have more talent,he cant throw out runners and all that but the undeniable thing is the guy has heart and being from brooklyn hes got that New york personality. For all we know Hernandez and especially molina could have had the playing in new york spaz attack and both have been critisized for slacking off. Bottom line-out of all three loduca has the attitude we like in New York
Cone was 7-2 with a 2.70’s ERA in 11 starts after aneurism treatment.
Pettite, in his 2d season, was 21-8 with a 3.80’s ERA.
That’s 2 Aces, which is what we need for a title. Maybe not dominant in every post-season start, but getting key outs and must-win games all the way through. Our pen should be solid, but Sanchez and Lugo will never be Rivera in the 7th and 8th. And Key was a crafty, gutty .500 veteran in ‘96, which is a realistic expectation from Glav. Good to face the opponent’s #3, but not their 1 or 2.
Cone had eleven starts, so I don’t see how you can consider him an ace for the total of the season. As for Jimmy Key as the third starter he was pretty gruesome that year (if Trachsel puts up Key’s numbers from 1996, people will be callin for his head). As for the playoffs the two guys who showed up were Cone and Key. Pettitte was awful in those playoffs. Basically, what Lew is saying is true, the Yankees didn’t have great pitching that year and still won it all on the strength of two veteran arms. Pedro and Glav could definitely be our Cone and Key.
This I will agree with whole-heartedly. The benefit is we will have two and maybe four guys filling a role filled by one. Plus, Wagner is a helluvalot better than Wettland.
Thanks for being more clear than I was!
Although I think a better and more recent example is the 2002 Angels:
Rotation - Appeir, Ortiz, Washburn, Sele, Lackey. Each was solid, Washburn put up spectacular numbers during the regular season but was 0-2 in the WS.
Bullpen - Shields, rookie sensation K-Rod, Donnelly and Percival. Flat out dominant throughout the post season.
I think this is the best comparison to the 2006 Mets. Our rotation probably won’t throw as many innings as that one did during the regular season, but I think the remainder of the production could be similar.
The more I look at it, the more I think the 2006 Mets are very similar to the 2002 Angels. Right down to the manager - a poor tactical manager who can’t handle a bullpen but who the players like to play for.
The 2002 Angels had 7 players who performed above average according to their OPS+ — the highest being 136; which is really good but not great.
The 2006 Mets should get above average performances from 1B, SS, 3B, LF, CF and maybe C and RF (as a platoon). But (except for maybe Wright) none will be off the charts dominant.
The 2002 Angels had solid starting pitching and good bullpen and a dominant closer. Barring an injury to Pedro or an implosion by Heilman, the 2006 Mets should be in the same boat.
The 2002 Angels had good team speed stealing 117 bases with 5 guys swiping 10 or more. The 2006 Mets will steal even more bases (at a much higher percentage) with Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Matsui, Floyd only stealing 10 or more.
I don’t know….am I out to lunch, or are these similarly constructed teams? At least as much as an AL and NL team could be alike.
Didn’t his parents leave NY when he was a toddler? He’s got an Arizona personality.
I’m rooting for him, but I would have greatly preferred rooting for #31 for less money and more production.
Cone won 7 of those starts with an ERA in the 2.70’s. If we pick up a guy at the deadline who does that, with a career history similar to Cone’s at the time, I will certainly consider him an Ace for the post-seson.
Key won 12 games in 96 with an ERA in the 4.60’s. Mediocre, to be sure, but not gruesome, and certainly not out of the realm of what we can expect from Trax (or Glavine, for that matter).
Whatever else Pettite did in the playoffs, he pitched a 4-hit shutout on the road in Game 5 of the WS, winning 1-0. That’s what an Ace can do for you when the chips are down. Do you really think Glavine has a game like that left in his arm at his age come October?
In the end, we agree that we are built, as of now, much more like the 02 Angels. But remember their work-the-pitcher, low strikeout, high OBP approach? We’ve got a lot to prove in those departments. And K-Rod got mighty hot in the playoffs. Can we follow that model? Perhaps. But I still want another Ace in hand before I feel great about our chances.
Do you guys think Omar shouldn’t try to add an Ace to the rotation? Why on Earth not, if he can find one?
I’m all for Omar adding another ace to the rotation, I just think that the Mets can make the World Series without him having to do so. And what’s your problem with Glavine? I’m not saying he’s an ace, but he’s no slouch in the two. Over the last two years his ERA has been 3.57, and even adjusted for ballpark he’s been well above league-average. He’s a reliable arm, I don’t see how you could expect his ERA to jump over a run more per game in one year.
If Jose Reyes has a .350+ on base percantage this team will win 100 games. His only chance of getting close to .350 is if he gets lucky, a lot of singles fall in and he bats over .300. Nothing in his makeup suggests to me that he’s ever going to be good a working a count. He’s a twitchy player, not very relaxed.
I have no problem with Glav. I actually like him a lot. But at this point in his career, I don’t see him as a #2 on a World Championship caliber team. At #3 though, he looks mighty good. I don’t necessarily expect his ERA to jump over a run. I wrote that it wasn’t out of the realm of what we can expect. And it’s not. And his post-season history is not confidence-inducing. Also, I was comparing Glavine this year to Jimmy Key in ‘96, who was pitching in the AL East. Hitters league, hitters division, hitter’s park. So 4.60 would work out to what? 4.10 or so for Glavine this year?
I’m willing to agree to disagree on whether the Mets, today, a week away from Pitchers & Catchers (capitalized because it is a holy day), are built for a championship run. I’m OK that we’re not, because which WS Champ lately has started ST with all key components in place? Certainly not the 96 Yanks or 02 Angels!
I feel that the mets traded Benson to allow for payroll flexibility to add that ace during the season.
We all know what’s it coming down to…Milledge for Zito. He’s probably gonna be the best pitcher available this year…
Maybe we can dress V. Diaz in milledge’s uniform and ship him over ;-)
Do ppl think other bigtime pitchers will hit the trade market?
Here’s hoping! But it will take more than Milledge, if Zito goes on the block. There will be many bidders, some with better offers.
I’d offer Reyes straight-up for him, if we can negotiate an extension. (I know I’m getting clobbered for this)
Schmidt might wind up available, and he’d cost less.
Anybody else?
I’m hoping Pedro/Glavine can stay healthy and Heilman comes up big for us (perrforms like at the level of a solid 3rd starter). This way we don’t end up shipping Milledge off somewhere. I would NOT like to see Milledge traded for a 3 month rental of Barry Zito, no thanks.
If Reyes can’t learn to take a walk, hit a ground ball, or bunt for a single, maybe it will be time for him to go. While he’s still young and we can fetch something for him.
So far he is on a Carl Crawford-like career path. If he can put up similar #’s to Crawford’s past couple seasons this year (296/331/450), I’ll take that. Because of his speed and the fact that he plays shortstop (as opposed to crawford the corner outfielder) if he performs at that level or better we have ourselves a decent player. That is unless he really is as bad a shortstop as all the metrics make him out to be.
Me niether. That’s why I qualified my endorsement of a trade like that with “if we can negotiate an extension.”
Yes, a decent player, even if his defense improves, but not a great one. I’ll trade a decent player for a lefty ace younger than 30 every chance I get. Decent players don’t win championships. Lefty aces do.
The Mets as they are now, are in my opinion a very high risk, high reward team. A couple breaks one way (pedro/glav are lights out, bullpen realizes its pontential, bust-tran reverts to BELT-40/40potential-tran, etc.) we could go all the way. Just as easily a couple breaks the other way (bye bye pedro, floyd playing less than 100 games, peterson can’t ‘fix’ anyone, etc.) and we could end up down at the bottom with the fish.
That would be a major implosion, but I agree that it’s not out of the question. More likely: a few bad breaks and another season at or around .500 is in store. Fire Willy might then get his wish, but no Mets fan would really be happy with that kind of record.
So Omar’s got to shore things up. Namely, he’s got to find a way to aquire another front-line starter. I’m repeating myself, I know, but there is no other truly pressing issue for this team. Not second base, not lefty relief, and definitely not back-up catching.
thehotcorner… I’m class of 2001. Nice to hear from a fellow Pegleg… yar.
Are you guys serious? I would trade Reyes for Zito in a heartbeat. Wouldn’t even think about it. I love Reyes and all, but honestly… Zito is a good pitcher. Great pitcher. And for cryin out loud he’s my pseudonym.
With yates signing w O’s, who thinks Mazzone has him better than RPete has Julio this yr? Or Moreno for that matter, one of the two. New Cincy GM’s first business: Timo. What a bold statement.
I think everyone is blowing the whole starting rotation out of proportion. Pedro should be fine and pitch like last season. If Glavine pitches like he did in the second half we are fine. I expect good things out of Heilman and Trachsel. Zambrano or whoever wins the 5th spot should keep us in games and our offense should score enough to let them win alot of games. So I do not understand what everyone is complaining about. Also Zito is not as good as many people thinks he is. He is not worth any players, because he is going to test the market this offseason. Any pitcher who will become a free agent should I mean people just threw money at AJ Burnett and he has a losing record and gets hurt alot. So why would anyone want to trade away players to get a guy who will test the free agent market to get the best deal he could get.
“His only chance of getting close to .350 is if he gets lucky, a lot of singles fall in… Nothing in his makeup suggests to me that he’s ever going to be good a working a count.”
- What about bunting for a hit, Pierre-style, from time to time? Do you think he possibly may have the speed to beat them out?
hey, instead of renting a declining Zito for half a season, what about calling up a rising rent-free Pelfrey for one quarter season? He is one of the two or three best pitching prospects in all of baseball, possibly with the rare rookie poise and maturity to handle post-season pressure.
Too many “should bes” “ifs” and “I expects” in there for my taste. Sounds like a perfect Steve Philips/Jim Duquette plan.
Ask the Yankees what a lot of wins in the reg season is worth in the playoffs.
Why not? If you make a statement like that you should present some reasoning or stats to support it.
Even if we only have him for this season or part thereof, he’s still worth quite a bit if he puts us over the top. This team is built, in many respects, to win now. And even if we can’t negotiate an extension pre-trade, Omar has proven he knows how to land a big free agent.
You can change your handle to Barry Zito, Lefty Win Machine.
Yes, but not the discipine, patience or bat-handling skills to get them down.
How ’bout he throws his first professional pitch before we bet our whole season on his “rare rookie poise.”
I hope he wins 300 games for us, but get serious.
Thats funny, here I thought your plan sounded just like a Philips/Duke plan. Lets trade the farm for a 3 month guy and hope he adjusts to NY in one month and the other 2 months are CY Young caliber. Isn’t the common overused excuse for anyone coming here that they had to adjust to NYC? How then is it sensible to throw all the eggs into a trade (gift) basket. I seriously doubt that Zito and whoever his agent is would settle for an extension to appease Oak or any new team when FA rates are crazy for way lesser pitchers. On an open market next winter, Zito will fetch maybe 10M more than what he’s making now. I can’t see him not making the bidding competitive, Rpete or not. So for 3 months of Zito for the future of the OF and whatever else is in mind, PASS.
Arn Tellem is his agent (unless he’s switched recently). He’s smarter than that. Arn will Tellem to give lots of years and lots of dough. Arn is listedas #4 on the list of agents w most $$ making clients (w 4). Barry will make him another next winter.
Doing a little lefty/right splits for both Vic Diaz and Xavy Nady I found that OM’s decision in getting Nady to platoon at RF wasn’t founded on sand. - that is if Willie can figure out that he should how to use these guys(Diaz vs righties, Nady vs. Lefties)
2005 Stats
Righties BA/SLG
Vic Diaz .257/.496 (226 AB)
X. Nady .223/.431 (202 AB)
Lefties BA/SLG
Vic Diaz .259/.352 (54 AB)
X. Nady .323/452 (124 AB)
Nady Career AB AVG OBP SLG
vs. Left 263 .323 .390 .452 (AB AVG OBP SLG)
vs. Right 512 .232 .282 .395
It would seem as though Diaz does a great job already against righties. Now if he can learn how to hit against lefties as most righties do. Its quite interesting that his OB% vs. lefties is almost the same as his slugging is .344 vs .352. By the way their career numbers are very similar. Check for yourself on Mets website for roster or batting. What do you guys think?
It was done to death in Nov.
If they don’t agree to an extension, then I wouldn’t do the deal for Milledge. But if Tellem won’t negotiate an extension in-season, Zito’s trade value will be vastly reduced. So maybe we don’t have to give up Milledge.
Wherever Zito spends this season, what other team is in a better position to sign him as a FA than the Mets?
It’s a convenient excuse for those who can’t cut it, but not one I’ve ever bought in to. Great players are great wherever they go, and slumps happen in every city. If you don’t perform in NYC, then you weren’t as good as people thought.
I feel that Omar has done a decent job since coming over here, not everyone of our trades has been steller but they have been made for reasons. You can’t blame him for moving Cameron to early for Diaz, who in the hell knew that Boston would not sign Damon. You can’t sit on your hands and predict whats going to happen with other teams players. What happens if Xavier and Diaz Combine to bust out 35-40 hrs been the two which isn’t far fetched. Both have very good power numbers. Cameron’s money had to be moved for other players to be looked at and fetched. People complained about Paul Lo Duca a 2-3 time All-Star, a team leader, a guy that can hit, move people over, and won’t bounce 500 balls in the dirt this season throwing to second base. I have read nothing that I had disliked about Lo Duca, most scouts and pitchers that pitched to him say that he calls excellent games.
I think that this team is built for success right now. A 2-3 window as our players in the Minors grow up and can lend a hand after these huge contracts leave us in that time span. We have gotten better this year without increasing our budget to much. I wish we could of kept Seo but we got two hard throwers for him and maybe with some tweaking Peterson can get them boys to dominate with their stuff.
I think Omar sees our future, IN a year or two the names of Keppinger, A Hernandez, Pelfrey, Bannister, Humner, will be ready for us, very good playes, and players that are cheap!!! If you think about it, the Mets in the last 5 years have gotten some of the most highly regarded pitchers in the first round, Heilman, Kizmer, Pelfrey, and Humner.
Next year we will remove a lot of money with Glavine, Floyd, and Matsui’s contracts leaving us. They need to take that money and got out and get Clear Cut #1 guy pitcher. Isn’t Prior a free agent next year?? We have some talented arms in the minors, but they are all pretty much in single A or below.
I’m hoping that Heilman was able to work on a 3rd pitch in the off season and in Winter Ball, I would of loved for him to work either on a curve ball or splitter or maybe even both. He develops a nasty splitter with that arm angle, Right handers might just want to stay in the dugout against him, he already has lefties like that with his change up.
If he develops another out pitch, he doesn’t become a #4-5 type pitcher, he becomes an ACE.
It is noteworthy that Zito’s ERA averaged 4.17 over the past two seasons; compared to 3.18 for the three prior seasons. Apart from the “rental” issue, do we want to mortgage the future for what appears to be declining skills?
I don’t see Bobby Bonilla’s buyout for the next 100 years factored in there. ;)
mets should sell most of their players in 0′7 off season