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February 8, 2006
Mets vs. Cardinals
All offseason long Mets fans have heard the same line bandied about by various fans, rivals, members of the media and front office personnel. It’s a line that as a Met fan, you’re not used to hearing. It’s a line that brings you a certain amount of joy, but a whole lot more trepidation. It’s a line that most every fan of every team would really rather not hear coming into a big season: “The Mets are the team to beat in the National League”. Just hearing those words sends shivers down my spine. The last time the Mets could be reasonably considered to be the cream of the National League was in 1988. And as I was four when that happened, it’s a feeling I’ve never been privy to. I was born and raised on the scrappy, never say die, underdog Mets of the nineties. There was never such a thing as a game that the Mets were expected to win. And playoff appearances were few. Now, the Mets are widely considered to be the most improved team this offseason — and there is no doubt that the Mets made great strides to beef up the blue and orange over the course of the winter. Omar Minaya and the Mets targeted three things as Must Haves going into October: a big bat, a reliable closer, and lots and lots of bullpen help. With the additions of Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner and the wide variety of arms added to the pen, the Mets have more than taken care of all three. But can they really even approach being considered the best team in the National League? The St. Louis Cardinals, who have averaged 96 wins a season for the past six years, undoubtedly are the current team to beat. Run by Walt Jocketty, Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan, the Cardinals have been a consistent threat since 2000, and have had the best record in the majors the past two seasons. What follows is a player by player comparison, to see if the Mets really do have what it takes to lay claim to the title. Catcher: Paul Lo Duca vs. Yadier Molina There’s somewhat of a contest here — Molina is one of the best defensive catchers in the Majors today, especially impressive seeing that he’s achieved that status at the age of twenty-three. Molina has, arguably, the best throwing arm in the Majors at the catcher position (think a young Ivan Rodriguez), and his defensive skills behind the plate are exceptional. However, Molina’s not that great with the bat, despite Albert Pujols taking him under his wing. Lo Duca is certainly the better hitter, but he’s not that much better to ignore his defensive shortcomings. Molina gets the edge here. First Base: Carlos Delgado vs. Albert Pujols While Delgado is exactly the big bopper the Mets needed, he won’t be trumping Pujols anytime soon. Right now, Phat Albert is the best hitter in the game, at least until we see how Barry Bonds bounces back from his steroi — er — knee problems. Both Pujols and Delgado are pretty average defensively — Pujols has slightly better range, mostly due to the fact that he’s seven years younger . With the bat in their hands, both are impressive — both have power to all fields, both can hit for average, and both are frightening with runners on base. But the reigning NL MVP still has got the edge in a big way. Second Base: Kazuo Matsui vs. Junior Spivey Shocking, isn’t it? But it’s more than likely true — check out Spivey’s numbers from last season and compare them to Kaz’s. Spivey put up an atrocious line of .232/.315/.378 in an injury shortened season while Matsui went .255/.300/.352 in an equally injury shortened season. Spivey is a slightly better defensive second baseman, but Matsui is the superior hitter, and in a walk year he might just have that breakout season we’ve all been waiting for. Shortstop: Jose Reyes vs. David Eckstein This is a tough one to call, as these two players are extremely different and successful in different ways. Reyes would run circles around Eckstein on the basepaths, but he’d have to get on base in order to do so, and that’s where Reyes’ biggest flaw lies. Despite an eye-popping 696 at-bats, Reyes walked twenty-nine times — and while that would be fine if he was a .330+ hitter, Reyes has yet to consistently put his offensive skills together. Reyes’ range and his arm definitely trounce Eckstein’s, but Eckstein can make almost all the plays Reyes will, and does not suffer from the youthful problems of trying to do too much too fast. At the end of the season, there’s a good chance that Reyes will be considered the better player, but as of right now he probably isn’t. Though Eck doesn’t lead by much. Third Base: David Wright vs. Scott Rolen Here’s the deal: everybody knows the player Rolen was. He had the bat, he had the glove, he had the leadership — he had it all. But Rolen’s been amazingly injured over the past year and a half, suffering from shoulder issues, knee issues, back issues and calf issues. Rolen’s always had troubles with staying healthy, but they’ve only worsened as he’s gotten older. Meanwhile, David Wright put up some terrific numbers last season, all while appearing in 160 games. Wright will probably never approach Rolen’s glovework, but he’s on pace to hit at or better than Rolen’s career averages next season (.284/.375/.515, 30 HR) — and he’s a lot more likely to make it through a full season. Gotta give it to David on this one, and I think most non-Mets fans would agree. Left Field: Cliff Floyd vs. John Rodriguez There really isn’t much to discuss here. As of right now, former Yankee farmhand Rodriguez will be the team’s leftfielder, though he could see a platoon split with Larry Bigbie. Either way, Floyd is head and shoulders better than either of them at the plate and in the field. Center Field: Carlos Beltran vs. Jim Edmonds Going into this, I figured Edmonds would have Beltran beat. Edmonds has been a terrific offensive and defensive centerfielder for sometime now, and has been the heart of the Cardinals for the past five years. However a reoccurring shoulder injury really hit Edmonds hard last season — even prompting talk of a possible retirement. Edmonds’ numbers plummeted from .301/.418/.643 to .263/.385/.533, and his power numbers dropped accordingly (42 HR in 2004, 29 in 2005). Whether Beltran bounces back is no guarantee either, however he’s got to be a safer bet than Edmonds. With protection in the lineup and his first year in New York behind him, Beltran might be the better player already — but for now I’ll give Edmonds the benefit of the doubt. Right Field: Victor Diaz vs. Juan Encarnacion I’m guessing that Willie will be keeping Nady on the bench to start off the season due to his ability to play numerous positions (1B, 3B, CF, LF, RF). This would leave Diaz with the lion’s share of the playing time, and though Diaz had some impressive spots last season, it’s not nearly enough to top Encarnacion. Offensively, they’re similar hitters (impatient, hit mistakes out of the park, solid homerun power) — though Encarnacion will more than likely put up the better average. Defensively, it’s no contest — in right, Encarnacion has got solid range, quick feet, and an above-average arm. Diaz has none of the above. Rotation: Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, Sidney Ponson vs. Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Aaron Heilman, Steve Trachsel, Victor Zambrano Surprisingly enough, despite winning 100 games last season, the Cards rotation isn’t all that much better than the Mets. Carpenter was probably the second best pitcher in the National League after Roger Clemens last season, though Pedro would be right behind the both of them. And while it’s no guarantee that Pedro will put up the same numbers as he did last season, it’s probably less likely that Carpenter does. Though both Mark Mulder and Tom Glavine have histories of inconsistency (Mulder was 10-5 with a 4.34 ERA before the All Star break, 6-3 with a 2.77 after), Mulder will more than likely be the better pitcher next season. He then will more than likely replace Glavine in the Mets rotation in 2007. (Hey, a guy can dream). It’d be nice to see Glavine string together two successful halves of the season into one terrific year, but as of right now the tip of the cap has to go to Mulder. The bottom three of both rotations are largely average and all have some question marks. It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for Heilman to not be one extreme or the other, and to simply put up an average, Jason Marquis type season (13-14, 4.13 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .262 BAA) in his first go around in the rotation. Jeff Suppan probably has the edge over Trachsel, however he and a healthy Trax are essentially the same pitcher. And anybody who even casually watches baseball would take Victor Zambrano over Sidney Ponson any day of the week (though I’m expecting solid seasons out of both pitchers). Closer: Billy Wagner vs. Jason Isringhausen Izzy is a good closer, make no mistake — but Billy Wagner is a dominant one. End of story. Due to the rosters not being completely filled out, I won’t get into the benches and bullpens. However, looking over the matchups, the Mets are a lot closer to the Cards than I figured they’d be. The offenses are certainly comparable, though the Cardinals have the leg up on defense — something the Mets have seemed to ignore of late, despite Minaya preaching it as a focal point when he took over. As for the pitching staffs, the Cardinals have the upper hand there as well, as things stand right now. However, Minaya has a fairly obvious desire to upgrade the rotation with a number two pitcher, and if he were to acquire one before the start of the season the Mets would more than likely have the advantage in terms of pitching. If the Mets and Cards were to start the season today, the Cardinals would more than likely be the better team — but over the course of the season, the Mets have a real good shot at proving those aforementioned names correct. 129 Responses to “Mets vs. Cardinals”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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You make some good points in the debate between Diaz and Nady, Sweetlew. But, here’s a point you overlook - Victor Diaz is 24 y/o and Xavier Nady is 27 y/o. And at 24 y/o Diaz is not only already a better hitter than the older Nady, but he’s still got a couple more years to improve. Xavier Nady is already in his prime.
Btw, did you ever answer what part of Alaska you’re in?
This was from earlier in the thread:
Wally Backman was (and still is, I guess) 5′9″ in platform shoes, but he sure got the job done. Always on base (by hook or by crook), torturing pitchers, opening holes all over the infield for Keith, first-to-thirding it on every base hit. Diving for whatever Mex couldn’t grab on the right side, hanging oh-so-tough on the 6-4-3. Who else here would love a Wally clone playing second/batting second this season? He was never a heralded prospect, and he wasn’t one of the glamor players of the 80’s, but make no mistake: the ‘86 Flag would not be flying without him.
[...] The bottom three of the Cardinals’ rotation — Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis and Sidney Ponson — will make $10.15 million in 2006. As Andrew pointed out yesterday, the Cards and the Mets have roughly equivalent three-through-five starters, and the Mets will spend around $4 million less for theirs. [...]
Anyone know when the Quite Frankly with Omar is airing East coast time
right now Rich Jefferson of the nets is on
Backman posted a .421 OBP in AAA at age 21. If he was unheralded, that wasn’t his fault. Alas, none of our current 2B options seem to have his particular combo of skills.
Other middle-infielders who are 5′10″ or under: David Eckstein, Joe Morgan, Marcus Giles, Placido Polanco, Fernando Vina. I’d settle for AHern to have of thsoe careers. And let’s not forget Brian Giles, Ichiro Suzuki or Mel Ott, who hit 511 homeruns while being 5′9″!
You have a point about the ages, Super T, but most players continue learning and improving for quite a while at the start of their ML careers, regardless of what age they break in. It should not be assumed that Nady will never post better numbers than he did last year.
As for Diaz already being a better hitter, Nady’s 2004 at AAA (1.020 OPS) tops anything Diaz has done thus far. I’m not trying to say that Nady’s definitely better, but it seems at least possible.
I salute you for coming up with AAA OBP #’s from nearly 30 years ago!
Backman was, as I recall, unheralded, and you’re right, it wasn’t his fault. Scouts and execs always undervalue “little guys” and Backman was coming through the system with the likes of Straw, Gooden, Darling et al.
http://thebaseballcube.com/
Awesome resource.
To be honost, I have no idea. They said they were gonna let us know via e-mail.
I was there for the Rich Jefferson and Antwon Randell El tapings. I was sitting down n’ stuff but they told us it was gonna be shown today.
I think the Minaya one is PROBABLY gonna be shown on the 27th? Just an asusmption but they didn’t tell us when.
For anyone who saw it tonight, BBFDB and I and anyone else who was there tonight were there for the 3 And Out and Randell El segments of the Richard Jefferson episode.
We’ll also be there for the Minaya interview and audience questions sections of that episode. Altogether, we saw 2/5 of the Jefferson episode and 3/5 of the Minaya episode, all out of order. Like Stephen A said, its like asking for a kiss from your girl afterward… it doesnt feel right.
Its going to be at least a week til the Minaya episode though.
I also caught the 3&O of the Jefferson episode tonight while at the bar. I made camera three times, oh daaaaamn
Hey, JRRM, what were you wearing and where were you sitting? And did you ask any questions?
That was when he was 25 and in the PCL- half the parks are like Coors.
Most of Nady’s parks (except PetCo in SD of course, have been good to great hitter’s parks) Diaz has played in nothiing but bad hitting environments since he reached AA. (Binghamton AA is considered a “hitters” park relative to its league, but its league, the Eastern League is an extreme pitcher’s league, like the MLB in the mid 60s)
Last annoying K post (I promise).
Take 2 otherwise equal hitters (same AVG/OBP/SLG- same outs), one Ks 150 times a year, the other Ks 50.
So, that’s a difference of 100 Ks.
One third of those at bats (on average) will come with 2 outs
So it doesn’t matter whether the guy K’d, grounded out, etc. So throw out 33 of the difference, leaving 67.
The worst time to K? man on third less than 2 outs right? What percentage of the time does that happen? Well, on average a batter bats with a runner on third (any # of outs) 10.65% of the time (I got that from BPro’s site). With less than 2 outs? 7.5% of the time.
So approx just 5 times will our hi K guy (on the year) whiff in a sac fly situation when the low K guy doesn’t. That doesn’t give the low K guy 5 more rbis- it might give him 1 more- the other 4 times he’ll put teh ball in play but won’t drive the guy in- he may pop up, ground out to the infiled, line out, GDP etc.
You can do this for runners advancing from 1b & 2b as well. The low K guy does have an advantage- over the course of the year he will advance more runners, pick up 1 or 2 extra SFs (actually- hi K guys are more likely to be flyball hitters and to get the SF when they actually make contact- but that’s another complication)
Plus the low K guy may get on by error more often.
The Hi-K guy will tend to have less GDPs (and a GDP with a man on is FAR worse than a K with a man on) both because they don’t put the ball in play and becasue they put the ball in the air when they do.
The effect over the course of the year is negligible- but of course if you have 1 out, tying run on third, you would rather bat the man with the lower K rate (assuming the high K guy doesn’t have a much higher avg/obp)
ok I lied-
Despite the tendency for Hi K guys (as a group) to hit fewer GDPs-
Diaz had a lot for his # of at bats….
Yo, you know this is Jose Reyes RBI Machine right? Same name. I was sitting front and center in the first row for the Minaya part of it. I was proudly sporting my Alfonzo jersey, which happens to be the only Met jersey I have… haven’t had the $ to get one since 2000 haha.
And yeah I was the Stuyvesant guy. Though I don’t like to make much of that. The warmup guy was such a loser, but at least I got a shirt out of it. I also asked who Stephen A. liked in the NL East, and made him regret not asking about it during the interview =D I should write scripts.
I don’t really understand why there is a K debate going on right now. It’s my feeling that a high number of K’s is worse than just a couple, but generally the guy who strikes out more will hit the ball with more authority. Comparing LoDuca and Diaz is pretty obvious in that way.
If they both end up getting on base at the same clip, but Diaz strikes out more, he’ll probably outslug him by a huge margin. And that’s a trade you should be willing to make.
Last thing on the Diaz/Nady - as much as I like Nady, Diaz has to be considered the way better prospect right now. All he’s ever done is hit, despite all the changes in positions, etc. The only time he really struggled was when he sat the bench last season… if he had real PT he’d probably go .280 30 hr. He batted .350+ in AA for cryin out loud.
highschool?
hm.. part of my post didn’t show.
class of ‘99 here.
That would be Fairbanks my friend…the COLD part of Alaska!
David Wright has nothing on Scott Rolen and Rolen is 100% going into Spring Training. Look out, Rolen is headed for another Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and All-Star starting status! John Rodriguez has the talent and hitting ability to put up big numbers. Look at the numbers he put up last year with very limited hitting appearances. The Mets are going to be pretty good next year but no way they touch STL. By the way, let me know when the Mets can win the NL East.
I figured Cards fan wouldn’t care for that judgment call. And I certainly hope you’re correct — Rolen’s my favorite non-Met position player in baseball. I’ve loved the guy since he started with the Phils, and was very happy for him when he got to St. Louis. I’d love to see him get over the injuries and regain his former status. Though, to say Wright’s got nothing on Rolen is not exactly true. Wright’s one of the top hitters in baseball, and he’s twenty-three. Offensively, they’re very comparable.
Going to have to disagree with you on this one — anybody can look good in limited hitting appearances (see: Shane Spencer, 1998). Fact is, Rodriguez is 28 and a career minor leaguer. I really don’t see him doing much better than average, and I definitely don’t see him being better than Cliff Floyd.
No he’s not, he hasn’t been 100% since his second season and unfortunately he’s unlikely to ever be 100%. He’s got back problems and they tend to be persistent.
Thanks to Baseball Cube we can compare Rolen and Wright age by age (and they played in the same leagues at every level):
Rolen at 18 in Rookie ball hit: .312/.395/.375 (80 ab)
Wright, 18, Rookie Ball:.300/.391/.458 (120 ab)- slight advantage Wright.
Rolen at 19 in low A: .294/.366/.462
Wright: .266/.367/.401 (slight advantage Rolen)
Rolen at 20 (mostly hi-A 75ab in AA): .290/.380/.475
Wright at 20 in hi-A: .270/.369/.459
(slight advantage Rolen)
Rolen at 21 in AA: .361/.445/.587
Wright at 21 in AA: .363/.467/.619
(slight advantage Wright- almost creepy the way they paralleled each other though)
Rolen at 21 in AAA: .274/.381/.411
Wright at 21 in AAA: .298/.388/.579
(advantage Wright- he’s getting some separation here- but small sample size)
Rolen at 21 in MLB: .254/.322/.400
Wright at 21 in MLB: .293/.332/.525
(advantage Wright- he’s maintaining that advantage he picked up in AAA)
Rolen at 22: .283/.377/.469
Wright at 22: .306/.388/.523
From 18 until half way thru their age 21 seasons they stayed within close hailing distance of eachother- Wright surged ahead midway through their age 21 seasons.
Rolen at 23: .290/.391/.532
Wright at 23: ????
If Wright keeps his age 21-22 advantage over Rolen he’ll hit something like .315/.400/.590
Well cheers from one of Alaska’s hot spots (Anchorage) ;-)
In Mark McGwire’s big years in St. Louis, LaRussa put the pitcher in the 8th slot a couple of times in order to “get more runners in front of McGwire” for his moonshots. I don’t know if it really worked. I think he only tried it for a few games and then went back with tradition.
Nice job. I think a better way to compare two teams is to look at their 1-8 lineups, rather than compare position by position. Eckstein and Reyes are two completely different hitters, for example. You can’t give the Cardinals points for Pujols being better than Delgado, rather you have to look at the cumulative picture of how the lineup stacks up. Pujols is a great hitter. Does he have Floyd hitting behind him like Delgado does?
Regarding willy’s management skills, i dunno if we’ve kicked this one around before, but i am truly puzzled and would be happy to get anyone’s opinion. From that very first botched double switch, i was wondering “shouldn’t the mets have provided this newbie manager with a competent bench manager/right hand man?” Then in theory, mistakes like that never happen. I mean, isn’t that really the problem here–no one was holding willy’s hand correctly…anyone? I guess this doesn’t necessarily address lineup or bullpen management issues, but it does go a long way to explaining in-game problems.
You guys are amusing me with this crap. First of all, the Mets aren’t making the playoffs. Your rotation sucks, I can’t believe you said the Cardinals win in the rotatin by a margin? By a margin? The Cardinals have a much better rotation. Pedro is going to get hurt this year, who knows what Glavine, Heilmann, and Zambrano are going to bring you? Steve Trachsel is OK, but you guys aren’t even winning this division. You’re completely biased. I’m giving you 89 wins right now. Your bullpen is absolutely herrendous, with the only cog in Billy Wagner, who will also get hurt.
[...] MetsGeek takes a fairly objective look at how players for both teams at each position would match up against another. [...]