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January 23, 2006
Trading Disappointments
One of the things I liked best about the Mets a couple of weeks ago was the depth in starting pitching. How many teams can claim they can throw out seven starting pitchers the likes of Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Kris Benson, Steve Trachsel, Jae Seo, Victor Zambrano, and Aaron Heilman? In a rotation that old, depth was the best thing going for them. When someone went down, you knew there would be someone to step up. It gave the pitching staff a high degree of flexibility and reliability. Even the pitchers who weren’t all that good (I’m looking at you, Victor), could be counted on for a certain level of production. Unfortunately, that security is nothing more than a phantom now. Omar Minaya, apparently unworried over Pedro’s health, Glavine’s age, and Trachsel’s age and recent injuries, has shipped off both Seo and Benson for three questionable relievers and one questionable prospect. Now, that’s not to say that Seo and Benson don’t bear their own burdens of uncertainty, but they do have histories of fairly dependable, unspectacular production. Not to mention that questionable starters are always preferable to questionable relievers: you can always find a new role for the starter. So out are Seo and Benson, and in are Duaner Sanchez, Steve Schmoll, Jorge Julio, and John Maine. The good news is that all these guys save Schmoll have plus arms, capable of getting their fastball into at least the mid-90’s. While both Julio and Sanchez throw hard, neither one really has a history of being a pitcher who racks up a particularly large number of strikeouts. As Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman has pointed out, much depends on whether Sanchez can maintain his improvement in his strikeout rate from last year. However, I find Julio less deserving of hope. Julio’s reputation as a relief pitcher is based entirely on his 2002 season. That season he posted a 1.99 ERA on his way to an impressive 25-save rookie campaign. When you look at his ratios though, it was easy to predict a decline. He struck out a decent but unspectacular 7.2 hitters per nine innings that year, and despite allowing just 0.66 home runs per nine, he was a fly ball pitcher in a home run park—a decline in his rate was inevitable. In fact, there has been little improvement since that first year in the league: Year IP K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9 BABIP G/F 2002 68.0 7.28 3.57 7.28 0.66 .250 0.93 2005 71.2 7.28 3.01 9.54 1.76 .288 0.98 There are some interesting things going on here. For one thing, Julio’s strikeout rate has been remarkably consistent, and rather ordinary for a relief pitcher. Better news is that his walk rate has gone down by half a walk, which is especially informative given the fact that his rate from 2003 to 2004 was a terrible 5.03. His hit rate has increased due to his luck evening out a little as his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) has risen by fifteen percent or so. His groundball-to-flyball ratio is essentially the same, and more of those home runs have started going over the wall. For honesty’s sake, he’s probably been unlucky in the home run department the past year or two, and the move to Shea will help that considerably. The homerun rate coupled with the walk rate is interesting though. Without reading a recent scouting report on Julio, it seems likely that one of two things has happened. Either he’s changed his mechanics to stabilize his release point and cost himself some movement on his pitches, or he’s eased back on his fastball in key moments to get more control, but made it more hittable. According to J. D. Jackson of The Baltimore Chop, the former seems to be the case:
So it looks like Julio has a case of what my former roommate called “Alan Embree-itis” (“95-mile-an-hour-fastball, straight-as-an-arrow”). I’m sure Mets fans will like that last part about meltdowns especially. As for John Maine, he was a well regarded prospect in the Orioles organization whose stock has fall tremendously this past year. He struggled mightily in the minors and wasn’t quite impressive in AAA. His ratios early in the low minors were extremely impressive, but since moving up to AAA, he’s seen a fall in his strikeout rate, first posting 7.90 for Ottawa in 2004 followed by a 7.78 in 2005. Additionally, his walk rate has fallen with the move also, though it did fall down to a very manageable 2.95 in 2005. John Sickels ranked him as the Orioles sixth best prospect prior to this season, but at season’s end remarked, “I still think he will be a useful pitcher but I don’t like him as much as I used to.” Maybe he could do better as a reliever, but at this point he’d have to blow everyone away in Spring Training to make the team. The bottom line is he adds a good arm to the system and provides some depth for the starting rotation, but ultimately needs to show he can blow away AAA hitters before he’ll get a real chance in the majors. These two trades reminded me of two other deals the Mets have made. The first one should be fresh in our minds. It happened last spring when the Mets traded Matt Ginter to the Tigers for Steve Colyer, a power arm who lacked control and wound up posting a 5.67 ERA in Norfolk. A week after the Mets traded their swingman, Steve Trachsel’s back injury was discovered to be quite serious. Instead the Mets were forced to trade for Kaz Ishii, a player they most likely wouldn’t have needed had they held onto Ginter. It’s not even that Ginter was very good, and he was out of options, but surely they could have found some spot for him. Minaya just didn’t believe depth was as important as having a poor pitcher who could throw 95 and could be sent to Norfolk. The second trade is more a cautionary tale on the volatility of relievers. On November 27, 1996, the Mets, conscious of their terrible bullpen, decided to change that by trading first baseman Rico Brogna for two young, promising relievers, Toby Borland and Ricardo Jordan. It’s not that it was a terrible trade, so much as the Mets underestimated what they had and overestimated what they needed: young, hard-throwing relievers. Within a year of the trade, both pitchers were exiled from the organization. Brogna wasn’t really necessary, but then again, neither were Jordan or Borland. Relievers are really a dime a dozen, and sometimes you’ll be shocked at who’s still around 10 years later, and who’s out of baseball within three. Remember, at the start of the season last year, our relief corps included Felix Heredia, Mike Matthews, and Manny Aybar. There are relievers that are worth trading for, but most of the ones with question marks aren’t really worth giving up something you need to get them. And the Mets needed their pitching depth. I think Omar may have jumped the gun a little, and he might have been best served by waiting until March or later to make this deal. Unless this is just a precursor to another deal. 145 Responses to “Trading Disappointments”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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(hope I did that right)
You better believe the mets know every word posted on that site. They have been using the website as a propagander source since its conception. The fact that the starting rotation lineup was changed the day of the trade shows you they know exactly whats on the site. I am a mets fan but a realist. For years they have been sugar coating everything they do.
How long will they hold onto Zambrano and not admit his trade turned out to be a failure. Nothing like a 5 inning 7-12 pitcher who imploded just about every 2 out of 3 times he hit the mound. Kazmir was 10-9 3.77 era. Mets track record of trading thier young pitchers lately have been disasterous. Im hoping the mets are trying to work a deal for Zito but knowing the way Omar does things i’m afraid he will end up sending Heilman to get him, completing his triple play of bonehead trades. I have lost all faith in Omar in the last couple of weeks.
PatrickO
P.S. They did that trade to save money and for no other reason
JRRM, and All y’all wondering what they base Soler off; they just watch him pitch. You think they care if is era in PR is 5 or 1? They watch his pitching not his stats. Its funny for you to make a case about how certain situations are qualified and others aren’t valuable. If the guy has nasty pitches and knees are buckling, f stats. The guy can throw. So you’ll see in ST. Omar wants to see Soler sooner, more so than Pelfrey, and I don’t think he gives a shit for Bannister.
They finally moved down from 42-41 Chris, speaking of roster moves, Angel Pagan was DFA’d.
Why wait..
Guys funniest stuff ever, I was over on mlbtraderumors.com, and all the cub fans over there really think they are going to be good next year. They are trying to say the Cards are wores than last year, the Astros are worse than last year and that the Cubs actually are better than last year and think they are going to win the central. They also tried saying the mets are worse than last year and I had to leave cause that was the funniest thing I heard them say. If the central is weaker then the Mets look like the favorites to win the NL title this year. Lets GO METs
the mets payroll sheet needs to be updated. Benson is still included.
regarding the trade, my first guess is that Anna was sleeping with too many front office personnel. They had to get her (chris) out of there before he found out.
I knew you would give me an answer, fire willie.
That was by far the main reason but I think they saw Benson for what he is last year too. He is someone who will always have the stuff to win in ther MLB but he lacks every other component to be more than a sub-.500 pitcher.
Besides Kazmir, please name one other young pitching prospect they traded in the past 5 years that has panned out for another team. Ok, you could cite some of the guys they went for Leiter or Piazza, but weren’t both those trades worth it?
I’m the last guy to defend the Kazmir trade, but I think you are being too harsh on Zambrano. Yes, his control problems and short outings can be irritating to watch, but he’s not nearly as bad as everybody makes him out to be. His ERA in his 3 full seasons as a starter has been 4.21 (2003), 4.37 (2004) and 4.17 (2005); if you adjust for ballpark, his ERA has been above-average each of those years. The 9-14 W-L record is due to his lack of run support when he pitched well from May to late July. I don’t see any difference between Zambrano & Benson, except Benson is more expensive.
Hey MetsFanSince71, glad to see you back and posting. Got to agree with you, the mets have not traded away a top pitching prospect in the last 5 years except for Kazmir. Heck I will even say they havent traded a great prospect in the last 5 years to anyone.(Jason Bay does not count since he was traded to us, then traded by us and then traded again so you can say 3 teams missed out on him).
While those reasons certainly factored in, I think it all went something more like this:
1. Season starts, Benson hurt (again)….front office groans
2. Benson returns, pitches okay, not completely terrible - the word “serviceable” comes to mind
3. Benson reverts back to his sub-500 form, mostly mediocre. Mets FO starting to get it - that this is the REAL Benson they signed
4. Off-season: Mets realize he’ll never recapture any of that promise he held in Pittsburgh (plus he’s injury prone with a problem wife to boot). But he’s still a trade chip, so they decide to shop him. They tell Baltimore to wait (knowing THAT pitching-starved team will take Benson even in March if necessary), and that they’ll get back to them. KC’s offer doesn’t thrill them.
5. Anna calls Delgado un-American. Hmmm, Omar starts to envision a clubhouse co-existence of the Bensons and Delgado, decides that keeping Delagdo happy (and probably much of the team) is more important than keeping the Bensons.
6. Mets try to the appease the Bensons one last time (and not make it look like Anna’s antics trouble them) by having Kris play Santa at Shea.
6. But Anna shows up looking like a cheap golddigger at the kids’ party, The Wilpons are very embarrassed and not at all pleased (rightfully so, IMHO).
7. Omar decides to kill two birds (Bensons) with one stone and see if the O’s will include at least one decent prospect to justify trading a starter, albeit a mediocre one.
8. The Bensons are sent packing to baseball Siberia, er, Baltimore.
Well, I don’t know if you’re counting the Mike Hampton trade, which was 6 years ago, but that did cost us Octavio Dotel (as well as Roger Cedeno). Without that trade, the Mets probably don’t make the World Series in 2000; on the other hand, Dotel was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball from 2001-2004. So whether the trade was justified really depends on your philosophical outlook. We also traded Jason Isringhausen in July 1999 for Billy Taylor (who proceeded to do absolutely nothing for the Mets), although I don’t know Isringhausen was really considered a prospect by 1999.
Out of the 4 pitchers we traded for Piazza and Leiter - A.J. Burnett & Jesus Sanchez (Leiter), Ed Yarnall & Geoff Goetz (Piazza) - Burnett is the only guy to have panned out.
Overall, I agree with your basic point: the Mets failure to develop young arms has a lot more to do with bad drafting than with trading prospects away.
Thanks for the good words, Rich!
Yes, Peter, I was leading up to that. I do think they’re getting better at it (Pelfry certainly looks like the real thing). But for every Kazmir, there are 5 Geoff Goetz in their system in recent years.
True, Taylor was a huge bust. But for all the grief Hampton caused us later, at the time, he was worth acquiring for Dotel (Hampton even won the NLCS MVP if I’m not mistaken). Also, no one could’ve predicted Hampton would leave after having reached the WS, and so you can’t blame the Mets for his decision. I even remember so many people thinking they’d convince him to stay the same way they convinced Piazza.
You know, I am actually a believer in scouting more than most people. Scouting and statistical evaluation should be hand in hand instead of diametrically opposed, and the first front office to truly figure that out will probably kick serious ass.
That being said, all that we typical fans really have to look at, other than on the field performance in the regular season, are stats. Even watching on TV can be extremely misleading. Watching in person can be misleading as well unless youre one of the fortunate few who can attend 40+ games from good seats.
I’m honestly not that impressed when the Mets minor league pitching instructor raves about Soler. What is the guy going to say, he sucks? If anyone can find me some Sickels, or someone else, who is equally high on Soler, I’ll be much more comfortable mentioning him in the same breath as Bannister and Pelfrey.
For now though, those are the facts. I’m certainly hoping he’ll be great, but there are a looooot of negative things against him right now, not the least of which is a transition to a new country with a new language, in a game he hasn’t played since 2004.
No Brian, those are opinions. And what are the so many negs you refer to? I think they put something in the H2O up there if you keep up this weird Soler trip/ Fonzie trip you keep on. You think the language barrier between spanish-english is going to set him back? This is unique all of a sudden in MLB? BTW, I think their scouts go to more than 40 games and have whatever seat they want.
Baseball America’s John Manuel had this to say about Soler, courtesy of google and Metsblog.com:
And here’s a Mets.com article about Soler… with some pluses and minuses:
KNUCKLEBALL????????????????????
I also was at a website where these Cuban-Americans were keeping track of their countrymen’s performances, and found a link to a picture of Soler. He reminds me of someone, but I can’t remember who.
firewillie, whyyyy do you always make me do this
Facts:
We don’t have access to any kind of statistics on Soler that can be reasonably projected to the MLB level.
He’s a Cuban defector. His children are still in Cuba. A pitcher who was more highly regarded than him (Jose Contreras) took three years to acclimate.
He has not played organized baseball regularly since 2003. He played in the Dominican Winter League in 2004 and had a 5+ ERA. He had 50 or so innings this winter in Puerto Rico and did well.
The only scouting reports that I’ve been able to find have been from Mets sources.
Any argument on those?
OMG, trade him now!!!!
Soler looks too much like Kenny Rogers!!!!
How many IP last winter?
If he throws well and pitches lights out, maybe he could get his family sooner than later (if somehow success enables via money or other thing it takes to get people out, I don’t know), but all I mean is you base your argument that he is unknown, yet you claim you “know” he will have a rough transfer to US/MLB (bc Contreras did). Maybe the year he was in Central AMerica w/o pitching gave him all the clarity time he needed, being pissed at his former agent for the fake visa, and now he just wants to cram the ball down some throats. Before you go off more, maybe wait until ST to see what he can do; if you still don’t like then go off. But at least be informed on your rants rather than saying you think its in his particular huan nature to miss his family. Maybe he hates his family and can’t believe his good fortune to be away and have space (j/k, interview w/ him does in fact say he loves his family, just proving a point at how random and subjective these negs are you have for Soler).
opinion
facts
opinion
Other than winter ball and for a moment of summer lg too IIRC. facts.
Jose Contreras sucked for three years isn’t a fact?
What kind of stats do we have access to on Soler? Can we project them to the MLB the way we can project AA stats?
MetsFanSince1971,
Actually, I think the Mets are very lucky Hampton chose not to resign with them, given that it netted David Wright as a compensation draft pick.
That is a matter of opinion. Some would say ace of an international team is very good, and AA means crap; others AA is crucial and international is crap; bc it is a subjective opinion.
No, ask anyone at your U; its a damn opinion, an assertion. Go to Writing 101, they’ll tell you as much; quit cutting classes smoking your tube.
The last post should have had this quote.
just for the record there is nothing wrong with smoking a tube
Not what i implied bb, just that nothing wrong w learning the basics at school either. Dude is at Marist letting his books gather dust. When shelling out bigger bucks for school, its nice to use your books at least as much as your tube (if not more so).
I can easily see Jae Seo being a mediocre pitcher for the Dodgers and Duaner Sanchez becoming integral to our pen.
Benson is never gonna be the pitcher everyone expects him to. Luckily for us dopey Jim Duquette went to Baltimore. The way I see it Duquette got fleesed by his replacement Omar who dumped an average pitcher and the 15M contract he’s due on Duquette and got back a cheaper reliever who may very well contribute and a marginal prospect in Maine.
I don’t believe Benson will ever fufill the hype so if Julio or Maine pans out this trade is a steal for us. If they both bust than it was simply a money dump not to mention the other giant factor which is clearing the trailer trash Anna Benson out of Flushing
Is that correct that we drafted D. Wright with the Hampton compensatory pick?????
If so, I have a new appreciation for Hampton but I still think he’s a pussy
Exactly. I mean, really, the only thing that kept Hampton probably from resigning was not getting the first start in the World Series (what a punk). You can’t fault a GM for trading young talent for a ready-to-play veteran when the results are a World Series trip. I mean, that’s what your goal is, right?
firewillie, making the issues personal with the poster isn’t going to win you any arguments. For your information, since youre going to insist on being creepy, I no longer go to Marist, I graduated last spring and in September will be going to law school.
All I’ve been trying to say is that Cuban pitchers have had mixed results after coming over, much like Japanese pitchers. It, so far, has seemed to be a crapshoot, and a guy much more heralded than Soler struggled for a while.
Young pitchers born and raised in America are much more projectable, because we have much more information on them. Is that something you disagree with, or are you just giving me a hard time?
Yo, FW, can the semantics, man! Definitionally, ANYONE “sucking” is an opinion — but pragmatically, the statement “Contreras sucked for three years” has factual content. He performed a certain role to a certain level of effectiveness that is commonly referred to as “sucking”. There’s really no need to say “That’s not a fact!” — it’s a fact in as meaningful a way as ANY qualitative description in these dialogues.
If someone said, “Mo Vaugh was overpaid the year he earned $16 mil and didn’t play a game!”, would you respond, “That’s just your opinion”?
I’m only jumping on you because you accused a guy of being a stoned slacker over this distinction.
I just looked at Contreras’s stats and remembered that he actually DIDN’T suck for 3 years… so I guess my argument goes out the window.
2003 - sucked in relief, great in the rotation
2004 - sucked
2005 - sucked 1st half, great 2nd half
I still stand by the principle re: Mo Vaughn, though.
I think to say Contreras sucked his first yr is a stretch. He kept hitters to a 202 avg. That alone would make me think he didn’t “suck”. So its not a fact.
Your saying you like to hype Americans but not Japanese or Cubans? Ok, slightly f’d up/ racist, but that’s your right. How many college pitchers get drafted high but don’t pan out? How did Neal Musser pan out for us? I think Soler will be fine, you argument that he won’t will be remembered and on file; if he throws the
Mets’ first no-no in his first game, you can’t cheer…
Hey argon, I came to the exact realization that you did, haha. Since it was a Yankee issue and not a Met issue, I hadn’t done the research myself and had fallen prey to the Post and News, it seems.
Contreras was not bad in 2003, but his implosion in the first half of 2004 and 27 or so ERA against the Red Sox was enough to get him shipped out.
And there’s nothing racist about what I’m saying. You’re going to have guys pan out, and have guys fail from each background. However, most of the guys who are coming over from Cuba, Japan or elsewhere, are among the handful of best pitchers in their entire league… and are seeing mixed success.
If the college draft consisted of just a handful of the best players in all of Division I, like maybe 3 pitchers per year, I think we’d see a much better success rate. But this debate has kind of lost its point, so I’ll leave it at that.
I think Soler will be fine, you argument that he won’t will be remembered and on file
I never said he wouldn’t pan out. I was just saying that it was premature to start penciling him in with guys like Bannister (success at AAA) and Pelfrey (nastiest pitcher in 2005 draft) to be the next Met stalwarts. Will he? Quite possibly. I hope so. But I’ve got no clue. Anyone who says they know more than that, who wasn’t down in Cuba watching him pittch in 2003, is BSing.
I haven’t seen him, other than what espn deportes shows in clips, but I know people that saw him in DR. Your stat basis may work for US players, but for a Cuban guy, like you said who hasn’t played much or the stas may be skewed, you have to actually scout, and the MEts have “real” scouts that know what to look for. You asked before do you expect them to say that he sucked. No, you expect him to say that he could work on this pitch or this part of his motion in AAA and be ready down the line; they say that all the time.
That’s all my point was; I’m glad you inevitably came around to see it. Apology accepted, Brian.
And do you still think this?
Or this?
Tsk tsk.
Oh any by the way, I decided that the guy I was thinking that Soler kind of looked like was Antonio Banderas.
And, sadly, we’ve reached the end of that fun and meaningful back and forth.
Why can’t I leave for twelve hours without a fight breaking out on these boards? People debate every day without hurling insults — why is this such an unheard of concept here?
Surprisingly, I found that to be one of the more civil exchanges.
And doesn’t he look like Banderas? Comeon… someone? A mix between him and Kenny Rogers, who someone mentioned earlier?
Sadly, it is.
I don’t think he looks like either of them, to be honest. He looks a lot like a paler version of Jaret Wright to me.
Learning the difference between fact and opinion, asserting fact w/o looking up a fact and using secondary and tertiary sources as a basis for fact is not insulting or fighting. Andrew, what is the “fight” part? I defended ganja to BrookBat when I joked about the tube part. He’s obviously proud of his schooling, he posts it often enough here. So I joked about it. If I constantly let everyone know I’m a farmer and someone told me I’ve been sniffing the compost pile w an assertion like that, then I would laugh, not take it as an insult. I thought it was meaningful bc after it all ended, the guy realized he made a baseless accusation, realized the value of research instead of media force-fed crap, and hopefully will be more informed next time he makes an assertion. Don’t you want more informed posts from your posters rather than specualtive junk that recycles the Post? Sorry if you found it offensive, I just took a point to someone making ungrounded claims vs Soler and Contreras, yet not realizing the Mussers of the world exist too. It seemed if not racist than a bit nationalistic, which is bs too.
i think we all need a tube right about now
Kazmir, and Seo this yr, you cant possibly tell me that was a good trade, the mets are left with little backup if or when one of our dinosours get hurt. I sure hope Omar has something up his sleeve coming up in a trade for an above average starter.
This trade is bad - to get rid of a number 2 or 3 starting pitcher - for two average relievers, when your team just got a dominate closer - stupid - move.
You win with balanced pitching; unless - Mets sign a dominate starter in the next year or two - this will hurt them, as Benson goes on to win 15 to 18 games a year over the next three
MD
Will admittedly Jae Seo had an excellent second half last year, Duaner Sánchez was at least equally excellent in his role as 8th inning man. Especially against right handed hitters whom he held to 27 hits and a .182 BAA in 43 innings.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6948/splits?year=2005&type=Pitching
vs. Right 79 0 0 0 0 0 0 43.0 27 - - 3 18 42 - 1.05 .182