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January 18, 2006
A Year Out Of Nowhere
One of the right-handed pitchers who most feel is guaranteed to make the Mets 2006 bullpen is Juan Padilla. Padilla got noticed last year as he was putting up a 1.42 ERA in 63.1 innings pitched in Norfolk. This, at age 28, was his first year in the Mets organization. He was called up to the big club, where, in 36.1 innings, he had a 1.49 ERA. How could a player who could put up these kind of ERAs find his way to the Mets as a minor league free agent? Well, because, he’s a good candidate to see his numbers go down. Padilla’s only other major league experience before 2005 was in 2004, with both Cincinatti and the Yankees. And, well, it did not go well. In 25.2 IP, he put up a 7.71 ERA, with 39 hits, 7 HR allowed, 12 walks and only 17 strikeouts. His minor league numbers, before the age of 27, where if you can’t succeed in AAA, you are basically done, are not very promising (except for a stop in A ball at age 23, which well, you better do well in). So, was last year a fluke? Of course. No one should expect any reliever to repeat a 1.49 ERA performance. Only the truly best relievers can come close to repeating that type of performance every year and well, Padilla is not one of those. So, if that’s the case, what should be expect from Padilla? Well, one thing Padilla won’t do is walk people. His minor league walk rate is 2.41 per 9 innings and last year he only walked 3.24 batters. A very important characteristic for relievers is to not walk batters and start rallies by giving the other team runners and this is one thing Padilla does very well. Unfortunately, on the other side, another thing he won’t do is strike out that many batters. His minor league K rate is 8.04, but looking at his strikeout numbers and levels where he put them up, the numbers look a little skewed by putting up high K rates when he was old for the league. Meaning his K rate probably looks like something more in the 6’s, which doesn’t translate very well to the major leagues. His K rate last year in the majors was 4.24, which is extremely low. Just watching him pitch, you notice that his stuff is very mediocre and that his game is not to get strikeouts. Padilla did not give up any homeruns last year, something surely to change, though who knows by how much. His BABIP was also .260 and I expect that to go up, mostly because of the “hittable” nature of his pitches. But what is most interesting to see will be how he fares against lefties. Because of the fact that the Mets do not have a reliable LOOGY in the bullpen right now, many wonder who the Mets will use against top lefties late in the game. One candidate is Aaron Heilman, who put up extremely good numbers against lefties. Another name people bring up is Juan Padilla, who held lefties to a .153/.254/.186. Unfortunately, that is in 59 ABs. Another scary part is the 8 walks, which makes his IsoD against .101. Because of the sample size and Padilla’s plainly average “stuff”, I am worried about Padilla’s performance against lefties next year and see Heilman as a much better candidate to get tough lefties out. Really, my point in writing this is that I am worried about Padilla’s performance in general. Just watching him pitch, I can’t help but feel last year’s season was a massive fluke (unlike Aaron Heilman). But, with the bullpen help the Mets have acquired (Wagner, Sanchez, Bradford), if Padilla can continue to not walk batters and maintain a 3.50-4.00 ERA, the Mets should have a strong enough bullpen where that is all the contribution they need from him. If you would like to rip apart Jeremy's writing, you can reach him here. He also appreciates any nice comments or questions you might have, but he understands if you would have more fun just tearing into him. 115 Responses to “A Year Out Of Nowhere”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. «« Who Am I? |
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Wagner, Heilman, Sanchez, Bradford, Padilla, Bell, Schmoll, for shits and giggles.
Left: Ring, Perisho, Venafro, Oliver, Perez, Feliciano, McGinley
Right: Parra, Fortunato, Garcia, Owens, Lavigne, Iriki, Wylie, Lindstrom*, (and Aybar? if still here)
14 over what will make it, so there’s 16 for 2 likely spots. If a lhp makes it then Schmoll is out; this could be the day one pen, although I think they’ll likely bring in yet more folks, poss in a Benson deal to Balt. Thats a good look at Norfolk and Bing pens anyway.
Funniest quote of the year imo.
Thanks Chris. If not Rick, maybe Carlos can tell him.
I couldn’t believe that postgame explanation. We always hear about how good these Japanese ballplayers are, then they come here and w Kaz not diving or backhanding and Koo lobbing one on 3-0 as cultural differences, it makes my head explode.
We got Oliver Perez! Score
In case anyone was unclear; he knocked a 3run shot 426 ft over rcf wall. One of those Glavine games where the pen sabotaged his win.
Oliver PErez I wish….
I’m still think Norfolk needs to bring in some more position players in the likeness of Defilece, Cordero, Ice, Offerman, Daubach and Santiago.
Jorge Toca!, Ron Acuna, Ed Almonte, Bascik, Bevis…
Raul Gonzalez, Zinter, Buchanon…
At least Parra and Feliciano found their way home to Norfolk. Give those guys a few years, they’ll come back to Nor along w Nye and Calloway. you may want to call Omar and let him know you were just kidding, he’s liable to take you at your word.
You know we were talking about lineups yesterday, I thought of some that I and most of everyone on here would like:
vs RHP
1.Reyes 2.Beltran 3.Wright 4.Delgado 5.Floyd 6.Lo Duca 7.Diaz 8.2b
vs LHP
1.Reyes 2.Beltran 3.Wright 4.Delgado 5.Diaz/Loduca 6.Floyd 7.Diaz/Lo Duca 8.2b
What you guys think about those lineups?
Sounds good to me, Rich. Although, honestly, I don’t think hitting #3 is that different from hitting #4, so we might as well switch Delgado & Wright vs RH just to break up the Delgado-Floyd pair of lefties.
Argon and Rich, both of yours have the crucial elements of Beltran in the 2. I think 3-5 w those guys in any order would be fine. I guess in Rich’s #2 lineup I’d want Cliff in 5, but other wise its fine.
I find it kind of amusing that 2-3 times in this thread, Greg Maddux’s stuff was described as average. He’s known for his location, but his stuff was pretty nasty in his day as well. You guys must have forgotten how much his fastball moved.
True, Mikeybags. People seem to wait on his tailing fastball now like it was a breaking pitch, but I remember in 1994-1998 when it cut sharply at the last instant and NOBODY could center it.
(Actually, there was ONE time I saw a guy center it — Bernie Williams in the 1996 World Series.)
To quote and answer myself, Beatty signed w O’s to minor P coach w Duke, so I guess they (the Mets) have no P coaches at Nor or Bing. If anyone hears of replacements, please be sure to clue me in.
[...] With the news tonight being that Juan Padilla will miss this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Omar’s offseason additions either look a lot better, or a whole lot worse. As Jeremy wrote a few months back, Padilla was pretty much penciled in as the “Go To” guy when it came to facing lefthanded hitters. While it’s entirely possible that the Mets have plucked a shutdown lefty reliever out of the scrap heap — as of right now, the Mets have no one in their pen to turn to. [...]