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November 12, 2005
I’m Right, You’re Wrong: The Ramon Hernandez Debate
Andrew Hintz: When it comes to Ramon Hernandez the most talked about thing isn’t his batting average (.290 overall, .302 at Petco Park — a ballpark even more cavernous than Shea Stadium) or his fielding (ignoring a rough, injury-shortened season last year, he’s a Gold Glove candidate every year) or the fact that he’s considered one of the best game-callers in MLB. No, it seems that every conversation that revolves around Ramon Hernandez ends up back at the same thing: just how much money will he make this offseason? Earlier this season Hernandez turned down a four year, $24 million dollar offer by the Padres, and let them know he was looking more towards the Jason Varitek four years, $40 million dollar deal range — even threatening to take on Scott Boras as his representation. But Hernandez isn’t likely to hit that monetary range, as he’s never been the focal point of a franchise or the on-field leader of a team. The more likely scenario is he winds up with a four year deal near around a little over thirty million. Though still not an insignificant amount, the big question is this: is Hernandez worth it? Ramon Hernandez brings a lot of tools to the table: with the exception of speed — he’s slightly above Jason Phillips level in that regard — he’s an above average catcher in all other fields: he hits for average (his average has climbed four years in a row), he hits for power (twelve homeruns last season in 369 at-bats, five in 172 at-bats in a stadium that held Brian Giles to six), and his arm strength (above average) and arm accuracy (Ivan Rodriguez-like) are both pluses. Even the major knock on Ramon Hernandez coming into this season — an inability to block balls in the dirt — has turned around, and his range behind the plate has improved dramatically. This is not even taking into account what every pitching staff Hernandez has led has praised him for: his intangibles. Jake Peavy on Hernandez: “his preparation, his knowledge of hitters, his willingness to set ego aside, his ability not to carry poor at-bats onto the defensive side of things are irreplaceable”. Scott Linebrink: “The biggest thing is how easy Ramon is to work with. He is definitely a guy we want to hang onto.” And, speaking of pitching staffs, Hernandez and Rick Peterson have not only worked together in the past, but Hernandez is a Peterson fan. With a catcher and pitching coach already on the same page to kick off the season, it can only mean good things for the younger pitchers on the team. So, what is Hernandez looking for, besides forty million dollars? His agent has declared Hernandez is interested in: “a club during the course of his contract that he thinks is going to be a contending-type ballclub. He’s going to look at the makeup of the club currently and what the plans are going forward.” Apparently, Hernandez has decided that the Mets fit that bill, as his agent followed that up by saying Hernandez is interested in the team (and, of course, their money). The best part of it all, Hernandez will turn thirty years old on May 20th of next year. This would mean his contract would end at age thirty-four — which most consider to be the point in a catcher’s career where their stats go downhill. Though the money amount may not be ideal, the player and what he brings to the table is: get Ramon Hernandez, and settle the catching position for another four years. Eric Simon: Ramon Hernandez is a fine player. At 4 years/$24 million I would be riding the Ramon Hernandez float at the Thanksgiving Day parade. At nearly $8 million a year I have to take a hearty pass, and here’s why. Among MLB backstops with at least 350 plate appearances last season Hernandez was 10th in OPS at (out of 27) at .772, right behind Mike Piazza. Much of that Hernandez’ offensive value comes from his power, as he was 8th in slugging at .450. Hernandez does not do a very good job of getting on base, as despite his .290 BA his OBP of .322 was only good for 16th among catchers and his 18 walks were bested by all but two qualifying catchers. Kudos on mentioning park factors, as Petco Park is notoriously tough on hitters. Here’s the kicker, though: Shea Stadium affects right-handed homerun hitters almost as much as Petco does (71 park factor compared to 65 for Petco, specifically for HR by RHB). Shea would help out Hernandez’ average a bit, one would presume, so he would have that going for him. As far as his age is concerned, I’m less optimistic about Hernandez’ inevitable decline. Prime years for a ballplayer are around age 28-32. A player typically hits his peak around age 30 and gradually declines until he’s a worthless husk. Most people would agree that catchers age more aggressively than other position players, what with the wear and tear on their bodies. So let’s say that a catcher’s peak is actually around 28, at which point he begins to decline. Hernandez will turn 30 in 2006 and would be 33 — five years past his prime — when a four-year contract expires. Case in point: Mike Piazza: Age 28: 1.070 OPS In this case, a declining Piazza is still a world-class hitting catcher. Mike kept himself in good shape and he dropped off quite a bit. This doesn’t guarantee that Hernandez will, but catchers don’t typically start playing better after they turn 30. With regard to Hernandez’ defense, his CS% has declined each of the past three seasons and he nailed just 26% of would-be base-stealers in 2005, just 13th (out of 21) in the Majors. Most of the rest of a catcher’s defense is subjective, so I’ll suppose he is something like an average catcher in most other areas. And now we come to one of life’s unsolved mysteries: calling a game. How do we evaluate that? Not really sure we can. Pitchers seem to like pitching to him, and that’s important I guess. Not as important as having good pitchers, but it’s probably worth something, say, 13.5 on some arbitrary scale I just invented that doesn’t measure anything in particular. One semi-legitimate way to measure a catcher’s rapport with pitchers is to compare how the staff fared when throwing to Hernandez in comparison to other catchers on the team. We’ll use CERA, or catcher ERA: Hernandez: 4.04 CERA That’s about a 2% difference. The Padres’ team CERA includes over 200 innings by first-basemen Robert Fick and Phil Nevin, and you’ve got to assume Hernandez is better at calling a game than those two, right? Throw them out and it’s basically a wash. If Hernandez’ otherworldly game-calling ability had any affect on his pitchers’ performance I’m just not seeing it. To summarize: Hernandez has plus power and terrible plate discipline. Above-average hitting catcher for sure, but not quite Jason Varitek or Victor Martinez. He has an average caught-stealing rate and he’s apparently no better at affecting the success of his pitchers than any other catcher on his team. All this for $8 million a season? Two words: Ramon Castro. Here’s how he did compared to Hernandez last season: AB BA OBP SLG CS% Hernandez 369 .290 .322 .450 27% Castro 209 .244 .321 .435 31% Castro made $500k last season and might make $1.5 million this year. He will also turn 30 next year. His batting average is a good deal lower than Hernandez’, but he makes up for it with a ton of walks, making on-base percentage a dead heat. His slugging percentage is just a shade lower. These are two very similar players, one of which will be looking to make $6-$7 million more than the other. In the battle of Ramon vs Ramon, I’m definitely taking Ramon. Castro, that is. 80 Responses to “I’m Right, You’re Wrong: The Ramon Hernandez Debate”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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sorry to say it but im not taking ramon….castro that is. Why you ask? Well because Ramon Hernandez is simply better than castro.
These numbers show nothing……Hernandez batted 160 time more than Castro and has done better in every aspect. Like Eric said Pitchers do love him and Peterson likes him as well. We dont even know if castro can play a full season. So like I said before im not going with Ramon…Castro that is.
Want my stupid opinion? Get whichever catcher is cheapest and will accept the fewest years and move on. Omar has more important things to worry about than which mediocre catcher to overpay. Instead of spending time with Molina and Hernandez, use it to get to know the REAL Billy Wagner. Wagner’s far more important to the Mets than ANY catcher.
How many years before Victor Martinez is a free agent? He’s about the only catcher i’d offer serious dollars.
I’d rather see if we can trade matsui and a prospect for Pudge.
thats insane…atking on 17 million for a mediocre catcher is not smart…then you throw in a prospect???
dnyce14: It’s not insane if you get rid of Matsui and his $7m or so, get the Tigers to pay part of Pudge’s contract, and make sure the prospect is no big deal.
Then hows it a prospect?
Steve S. thanks for seeing the logic when it comes to the $$$$$, in the end we would have Pudge for 2 years at a total of 10 mil., the prospect I was thinking about was someone like Matt Lindstrom, who supposedly has all this talent but hasn’t been able to put it together.
Hey Geeks: Any plans on doing a similar style debate over the merits of Molina and the Japanese catcher whose name I can’t think of now as I this? Of those three guys, who would you want to be the Mets starting catcher in ‘06?
My answer BTW would be Hernandez, if only because I think Molina, because of his stocky body type, has a greater chance to get “old” on us quicker than Hernandez. And I don’t know much about the other guy but I’d rather not take my chances on an important position like catcher on an unknown quantity. Simon made a reasoned sabermetric case, but I’m siding with Hintz on this one; also let’s not forget that besides the Padres pitchers Zito loved throwing to him, according to reports, and his reputation for working well with pitchers, along with Pitching Guru Peterson, should give us an edge in attracting FA pitchers. 8 mil per for 4 years might be overpaying a bit for Hernandez, but as long as we don’t give him Varitek money I’m comfortable with the decision.
After 09 the team has an option on him.
In related news: Star Ledger: Minaya seeks out two top catchers.
Yipes.
First of all, the differences of 1 point of OBP and 15 points of SLG are really not terribly significant. I would agree that Hernandez is a little better than Castro offensively. But the difference is small enough that I don’t think it’ll really be worth spending the additional 7-9 million a year Hernandez will make over Castro.
Secondly, Castro has a better chance of improving his offensive numbers, while Hernandez is more likely to decline, even though they are the same age. The difference is that Castro would be receiving regular playing time for the first time in his career. I’m not talking about a big improvement, but probably enough to cover whatever small difference there is between them.
Even if Hernandez is a little better, Castro will still be 7-9 million a year cheaper. And we won’t have to worry about getting rid of Castro’s ridiculous contract 2 or 3 years from now if his production and/or defense has declined (or if an injury should occur).
I too agree based on this area.
The knock
Yet you also must look at the WP stat from the staff. When looking at this the Angel’s staff had a high number of WP (68 in 2005, 60 in 2004), I believe in part due to B. Molina’s imobility. Whereas the Padre’s Staff had considerably lower WP (36 in 2005, 27 in 2004).
I have been trying to track down the Passed ball stats and that will show a lot.
I second the notion that Ramon Hernandez is better than Ramon Castro, but not by a ton, and is not worth tons of $. I’d say the same about Molina, and guess that Johjima is a huge risk and probably unwise.
Someone at Fox or ESPN (I can’t remember who) cited some statistical study that says the average catcher is washed up after age 32. Very few catchers have had age 33 seasons in which they were even a shadow of their peak selves. Most catchers begin to decline by 30 at the latest.
I say get a cheap guy who’s about average in most respects and platoon him with Castro, and spend our $ elsewhere. I wouldn’t be surprised if we could get such a player with a trade (maybe from some team’s AAA team), giving up minimal value.
I also remain fond of Cincy’s LaRue, and the Reds need pitchers…
Guys like Piazza and even Posada, to some extent, are exceptions.
None of the Big 3 will come cheap. It will take a minimum of 6M per year for any one of them. No way is Minaya signing Ausmus. The only possibility is a trade for Brian Schneider, who is only 28, and that isn’t going to come cheap, if at all.
I have to agree with the idea of letting Castro play. Living out west, I don’t get to watch him enough, so I don’t have a true read on his defense/play calling, but he certainly seems capable of posting a .750-.800 ops which is pretty nice for a catcher. And he’s the right age. Ramon is a nice player. I have Pad season tix, and have watched him for a couple years now. He was hurting most of last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if his ops at Shea over four seasons ran something like .830, .825, .800, .790 if he’s healthy. He is solid, if unspectacular, defensively and the pitchers like him. He’s also a ‘clubhouse’ guy. He doesn’t work the count enough though, and that’s not likely to change at his age. He’s certainly capable of a .300 BA/30 HR season though, and that’s rare for a catcher. But there is an age/injury risk involved as you are probably getting the tale end of his prime years. 7-8mil seems about right, but I would rather have Castro at low dollars. They could wind up being close statistically over the next few years.
ramon castro and andy wilson
Enough of Castro as starter, theres a reason hes a career backup he cant really hit well. Dont give me his numbers from last year how we kno he can do it again. go wit Hernandez hes been in the bigs for a while now and has been hittin well for most of his career. Castro is a back up he will never be able to take on a full season, this is another reason why we are fans and not in the business of gm
His numbers from last season tell me that he certainly can hit well.
I assume you meant to say “know” and “can’t do it again”. How do we know last year isn’t the real Ramon Castro? Castro’s 209 at-bats last season were a career high, and represent one-third of his career at-bats. He showed me enough last season to think he can be at least a league-average offensive catcher. He was finally given a chance to start for an extended period of time last season and he was productive.
Hernandez has been a solid offensive player for the last three seasons. His first three full seasons with Oakland he had on-base percentages of .311, .316 and .313. That’s not “hittin well” by any stretch.
How do you know Castro can’t handle a full season? As you said, we’re fans and not GMs, so what qualifies you to say that Castro couldn’t be a full-time catcher? Maybe he can’t be, but just because you say it doesn’t make it so.
For those who care about hitting in the “clutch”, Hernandez hit .296/.333/.449 with runners in scoring position last season. Castro hit .303/.410/.515 in the same situations. These are small samples and RISP performance fluctuates from year to year, so take from this what you will.
Hernandez is probably a better catcher than Castro, but he’s not much better, and he certainly isn’t worth $7 million more per season than Castro. You don’t have to be a GM to realize that.
no idiot read what i wrote how do we KNOW he can do it again. that means how do we know he will hit anything like last year. also hitting and obp are totally different, that means does he walk and get hit by pitches so dont use obp and hitting as the same thing, also why has he been a career back up the entire time, he couldnt hit in the minors when he was a starter, also how are u goin to compare a back up to a full time starter, if you are gonna compare hernandez compare him to molina, a starter. id rather pay 7 million to a guy who is a proven thing in the majors then a guy who no one liked last year when the mets got him and all of a sudden think hes gonna be good cause he had 1 good season.
also now I know I must use proper english anytime i post on this site.
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You say this but his last 3 seasons have been .331, .341 and last year when hurt .322 his career obp is .325 so why u bash him when he just started and has been better lately. also hes hit over .270 the last 3 years also a better indication that hes better than castro. im with Rich id rather go for a guy whose a proven hitter.
ummm pudge is owed 8 million for 2006 and 2007 with other monies due (11 milllion between 2008-2011)….the one loophole that could work would be “DL for 35 days in 2006, terminate with $4m buyout”
http://russells.freeshell.org/ddollars/team.php?team=tigers&name=Tigers
Pudge total = 27 million - 8 million of Matsui….you get 19 million…that 9.5 per.
Throw in a prospect of lindstroms worth and the most they take on is 1-2 million…still making Pudge cost the mets a minimum of 8.5 million….when they could spend that on ramon hernandez or molina instead…
Ohh snap! I agree with Mets and Rich. I like Castro but cannot and will not go into next season expecting him to duplicate those stats again. Whne his workload increased, he was exposed in the batters box and seemed to tire a little. I like him but not as a starter. I would nominate him as a platoon guy.
When it comes down to it the mets had very good production out of piazza and castro last year…they need to get another bat back there if they choose to stick with Jacobs and Matsui/Graffanino/Keppinger/Hernandez at 2nd base.
I believe Hernandez is the best option and that olina will be overpriced after his bets years ever and the playoff run…
Keep piazza and have him and castro split time (assuming piazza would be willing to take alot less money)
I mean to me it just seems like these three catchers are very average. I just would like to see the mets spend the money elsewhere (like wagner as closer and someone at 2b). There just seems to be more pressing issues with this team besides catcher. Castro/Piazza didnt put up bad numbers, they were one of the most effective in production out of all catchers. In comparison to other teams…..the issues offensively for the mets were 1b and 2b. Hopefully jacobs can produce at the level he did last yr. I think 2b is the biggest issue for this team, then the bullpen. Im unsure why people would spend all this money for hernandez, who many will agree is better than castro, but not by that much….not by as much as he is asking for.
You know whats crazy i was just lookin at stats of all catchers last year, Piazza led all NL catchers (not all catchers) in RBIs last year i think thats nuts, we should just keep him and see if he would come cheaper a platoon of those 2 would be good, but if not piazza id go for Hernandez
^^You see…..thats exactly what im getting at. The thing with piazza is he was great offensively and that made up for his horrible defense (throwing runners out I mean). Now that he’s just “ok” offensively, its hard to put up with the bad defense.
But having said that, I just dont see why we must overpay for any of these catchers when our catchers last yr were pretty productive. I guess what im saying is it doesnt matter who we get, its not going to be a huge impact or major difference than last season.
I say spend the money in the areas where we can improve the greatest. Now im not saying they shouldnt consider these catchers, but i just think the attention should be elsewhere right now. Worry about signing wagner. Worry about getting a 2b. Worry about getting better arms in the pen……because if we dont address those issues, what we do with catcher isnt going to make any difference.
Piazzas going to the AL sorry to disappoint Baltimore and Toronto are in love with the guy.
We don’t, but we also don’t know what Ramon Hernandez will do next year, either. We do know that Hernandez has been a decent but unspectacular hitter and that’s not the sort of thing I think the Mets should spend $8 million a year on.
Excellent point. If by “hitting” you mean “batting average”, then they are very much not the same thing. On-base percentage is much more important than “hitting”. The singular goal of a batter is to not get out. There are other tertiary goals such has hitting for power, situational hitting, etc., but not making an out is the single most important thing that a batter can do. OBP measures a player’s ability to not get out. A player who hits .300 and never walks (.300 OBP) is less valuable than a player who hits .250 and draws many walks (say .350 OBP).
Castro was a .272/.348/.434 career hitter in the minors. Nothing wrong with that.
The only thing Hernandez has proven is that he is an average catcher. Is that all somebody has to do to get $7 million dollars out of you?
If by “proper english” you mean “spelling words correctly” and “using at least 6th grade grammar”, then yes, please do use proper English.
So why do the mets insist on overspending for this guy? I dont get it at all.
ok buddy theres a reason u are a geek cause u have to try and degrade all u dont take points in the other hands or other peoples opinons, u are very stubborn, i wish there was a way to show how hernandez would be so much better for the mets then castro, but u will never listen to that, so continue to be my english teacher and correct all the grammar i have used wrongfully.
Eric u keep sayin all these things about castro but hernandez career obp is .325 and if the last 3 years mean anything that means hes got probably another 3 years left where he will be just as good, hes gettin in his prime years right now. no offense to castro hes been a back up and should stay a back up to keep him fresh.
I found out not to mess with the geeks. Like in star wars there the jedi council just that powerful. Anyhow I was wondering how old is the Japenese catcher. If hes in his late 20’s to then Isee no reason why we shouldent use him.
You have yet to provide a credible argument that Hernandez would be appreciably better than Casto. I wish there was a way that you could show me how much better Hernandez would be than the Mets, too. The bottom line is that we simply do not know. There is not an overwhelming amount of evidence to suggest that Hernandez is much more than an average catcher, and I’m sorry but I can’t justify spending a ton of money on an average catcher.
Countering your arguments with facts should not be interpreted as degradation. For instance, you claimed that Ramon Castro was a bad hitter in the minor leagues. I countered with his career minor league stats indicating otherwise. You seem to have confused stubbornness with “punching holes in your flimsy arguments”.
This is not an English class, but you are expected to maintain a respectable level of discourse as outlined in the comment guidelines.
I welcome other peoples’ opinions provided they are backed up objectively. Saying that something is true does not make it a fact — you have to support your claims with actual data.
lol im not saying castro should start by any means but I find it funny when people say things like “castro always been a backup, thats all he will ever be”. Just because your a backup for a couple years doesnt mean u cant improve and someday become a decent starter. This notion of castro always being a backup so thats all he will ever be is crazy.
Like someone pointed out, his slg and obp is very similar to hernandez. The batting average is alot lower but in other regards they are quite similar.
Im not messin wit him, im tryin to hope that he will be more open minded. hes just bein stubborn and wont take in cosideration that Castro has been a career back up for a reason just cause he had one good season doesnt make him a starter.
This is because he gets less at bats. so is numbers would be higher as opposed to gettin more atbats where it would become lower in number. why arent u goin hard at the other guy who keeps tellin u that hernandez is better?
A .325 OBP is nothing to write home about. The average national league catcher had an on-base percentage of .315 last year. Hernandez’ OBP was .322. That’s about 2% better than average. The average starting catcher made about $1 million last season. 2% more than that is $1.02 million, which is far less than Hernandez will be looking for.
Hernandez is arguably about to leave his prime years (catchers peak at around age 30). There is no reason to believe he will get better, and he may have trouble even staying at his current level.
Lou Gherig backed up Wally Pipp for two seasons before he got a crack at starting. We all know how that turned out. Castro won’t be confused with Gherig anytime soon, but the point is that just because someone has been a backup doesn’t mean they can’t cut it as a starter.
Ya know something…….im starting to think taking the japanesse catcher isnt such a bad idea after all.
Im not stating that I hate Castro in any way. I just believe he would be better for the mets as the back up. Therefore I will continue to say Id rather have Hernandez as the starter. I dont want Molina, Id take a look at the Japanese guy because he will probably cost less money then the other 3 and he could be very good player but people are just hating on him cause Matsui hasnt worked out for us. You have proved to me that I wasnt makin good arguments, so you have proved a point, but you should also open your mind a little bit and realize that Hernandez is better then Castro and that you are only goin by 1 year as an example for all of your points about him.
I said that was his career. You didnt point out that the last 2 years b4 last year he had obp of .331 and .341 those are above the league avg. if he wasnt hurt how do we not know if his obp wouldve been higher.
Good call on Molina — I’m not a big fan of his, either. I would be interested to see how Jojima might pan out in the big leagues, though I would hesitate to give him big money just to find out. They say he’s looking for a similar deal to the one that the Matsui’s got (3 years, $20-21 million).
I readily admit that Hernandez is a better catcher than Castro, I just don’t feel that he’s appreciably better, and therefore I am opposed to paying him appreciably more money than Castro. Were money not an issue (or say, Hernandez wanted $2 million and Castro $1 million), I would go for Hernandez in a second. That is most certainly not the case, though. Hernandez will command upwards of $30 million over four years, and I don’t think he’s worth that kind of money, especially when you consider the fact that similar players can be had (or are already had) for much less.
I’d give the japanesse guy a chance. You can probably get him for cheaper then the other two and it would allow the mets to spend more money in other areas.
I think everyone is worried tho since the other guys we’ve gotten from there havent worked out so well.
Oh well……i guess we’ll all find out soon what the mets are going to do.
Well at least we can finally not argue Eric. Any way has anyone else been bummed out that there have been no signings yet. I for one am really dissapointed. I want to get a signing so we can discuss if it was good for that team
This is a good point. You can’t judge a player by one year. I have no idea if his OBP would have been higher last season if he wasn’t playing hurt, though I suspect it might be. An OBP of .341 would be well above the league average, but still not enough to justify his exorbitant salary in my opinion. The bottom line is that I just don’t feel that he is a significant upgrade over much cheaper options.
Hey I read a blog from a guy in Seattle that wrote about the japanese catcher, and he sold me big time on him. i dont remember the site but once i find it ill post it up
http://drdetecto.blogspot.com/2005/10/potd-kenji-johjima.html that is the website that i was talkin about. read it and see if this guy will sell u on Johjima.
Well, we might have to forget about Jojima anyway. The Seattle News Tribune is reporting that the M’s are closing in on a two-year deal for 8 million dollars with an option for a third year.
I doubt that’s happening. Alan Nero is one of the best agents in the sport, and there’s no way he allows Jojhima to sign without talking to any other teams — especially two years for eight million when Jojhima apparently wants three years for eighteen.
I think you’re right, Andrew. From the Seattle Times:
It did seem awfully fast.
Johjima has decided on Seattle, but the news leaked a little too quick, and Nero had to put out the “don’t take us for granted” vibe.
If the Mets wanted in on Johjima, it would take an offer of the type to really turn Johjima’s head.
My $0.02,
Dr D
drdetecto.blogspot.com
See i just find that hard to believe that he would just sign with them and not field offers from other teams
Gotta say, I agree. However you dice it, we’re gonna wind up overpaying in years + money. All these guys are around the 30 y/o mark give or take a couple years which for a catcher is getting up there. The only way you ignore that is when you have an elite catcher which none of these guys are.
Personally, my first choice would be a Castro/Shoppach platoon w.Castro taking the lead. He was strong in w RISP, calls a good game and is competent defensively. And Pedro likes him, I think he earned his scouting rights w.the Jacobs coup. Shoppach we could probably get for a 4A prospect or bench player. Hey, it would pain me to give up on him but if we move on a new 2bman the Sox could make good use of Keppinger, who like Shoppach has potential but could go either way. With Drive ‘em Home Ramon it’s not such a risk going w.Shoppach. If it doesn’t work out we hit the FA market next year, which may be stronger…
Oh he is fielding offers — that’s the stage they’re in now — Nero taking a last check around to see if he can do significantly better.
If the Mets wanted to blow the M’s away, they prob’ly could.
Cheers,
Dr D
Hey Jeff, how do you know soo much about this? You seem to know alot abotu Jojima.
And another thing, have you EVER in your life considered being a sports agent, I think you can sell any player. First Jojima and now Goeff Jenkins, geeze. I’ve always hated Geoff Jenkins and thought he’s been over-rated cause he’s always been on a crappy club.
Serious wallbanging indeed, I want Geoff Jenkins…
You even managed to make Dmitri Young and his afro seem like an option.
Hey man, you should be a sports agent or the guy that has to make the “sell” during trades… Maybe we’d be able to gt Vladi Daddy for Aarom Baldiris.
The more I look at the FA catchers out there, the more I find myself asking: why not Pudge? The Detroit media says the Tigers would consider a straight swap for KazMat just to dump the contract and get rid of an unhappy player. If I have the figures right, we’d owe Pudge $2M more this year than we were wasting on Matsui, then $10M next year. Isn’t that better than $32M over 4 for a mediocre catcher?
I know, he only walked 11 time last year, and that’s a concern. But it’s a statistical oddity - he has a career OBP of .343 and a .383 OBP in 2004. He’s playing in one of the few parks that’s tougher on hitters than Shea. And he’s still the premier defensive catcher in the game. I mean, he threw out 52 percent of baserunners last year! 52 percent. As in 35 CS as opposed to just 33 SB.
As far as his age (33) goes, Stats Inc./ESPN says “Rodriguez appears to be one of those hitters who will be better in his mid-30s than he was in his mid-20s.” Now, obviously that’s insane - at age 27, the guy hit .332/.356/.558 with 35 HR, 113 RBI and 25 SB and he hasn’t come close to those numbers since - so no one in his right mind can really think Pudge’s best years at the plate are yet to come. But I still think the quote is somewhat relevant because I don’t think he’s suddenly going to go Alomar on us and forget how to hit completely. And if I’m not mistaken, his contract would be up at age 35 which would give us two years to develop a young catcher and let us unload Irod before he really starts to break down.
Alright children, i say we sign Bengie Molina.
That is all for now….
is it possible that lastings can start the 06season in the big leagues?
Is an injury to Clifford Floyd possible? (laughs… then realizes it isn’t funny)
The only way he comes up is if both Cliff and Cammy are both gone/injured. If Milledge is still with the team, he more likely comes up in September.
he walked like 8 times last year. I want him far, far away from Reyes.
Also since when did Molina become god’s gift to baseball?
And so what if we over pay for Hernandez– it’s not like the difference between 6 and 8.5 million per year is really going to cramp the mets style (such as it is).
If we are not going in house with this, I would much rather see Hernandez than Molina.
But what he is that Castro is not is a proven average everday catcher - I’d add with higher ceiling.
Castro had a nice season but he has never come close to playing a full season much less sustaining his ‘05 production over one. In fact his career stats are .222/.304/.387 in 670 ABs & that includes last season.
Omar is playing for keeps in’06. He wants a team built to go dep into the playoffs. He has a club perceived to short on offense and has one position where he is certain to see a decline from 2005 - catcher.
It is highly unlikely that he will give Castro top biling in a catchers platoon in 2006 - and it’s hard to blame him. Ramon is unknown/uproven at the major league level & thus just poses too big a risk.
Castro might stack up to last season but he could just as easily revert to his career norm. If we were aiming for 83 wins again Castro gets the job but there is alot at stake for Omar & it is natural that he will pay a premium, likely a large one, for certainty of a bit better than average.
Now if there are other options out there they should be put on the table. The Marlins want to move salary so LoDuca might be avaiable. He has 2/$13m left - at least a year less than Molina/Hernandez and maybe a lower yearly rate.
LoDuca & Hernandez career lines are similar .285 /.339/.417 vs. .262/.325/.418 but LoDuca slugging slipped to about .380 last season.
How are you making that argument? None of these catchers are anything more than DECENT. The Mets will not win more games because Hernandez is behind the plate as compared to any of the other available backstops. It’s a wash, as far as i’m concerned. It would be a serious misallocation of resources to throw 8M at some mediocre catcher. Hernandez is my top choice as well, but consider the markets he’s played in. A’s and Padres fans are NOT fevered. Padres fans are asleep by the 3rd inning. I can just imagine the reaming Hernandez takes as Piazza’s successor. He has to replace one of the most beloved Mets and the greatest position player in the history of the franchise. I wonder how Hernandez takes it the first time he strikes out with the tying runs on base and the crowd jeers him. Makeup is an important factor, and this is where I believe Molina to be superior. From what i’ve seen and read, I feel he’s mentally tougher, albeit less talented, than Hernandez.
*sigh* I couldn’t care less whom the Mets get as catcher, so long as they don’t commit long-term to any of them. And it troubles me that Omar has yet to offer Wagner a contract, all the while courting catchers thoroughly incapable of holding Mike’s jock during his prime.
I don’t see why Pudge SHOULDnT be an option.
For some reason the media in Detroit thinks it should only take Kaz Matsui to get the deal done. If that’s all it takes then why not? I say go for it!
You get rid of Matsui who is dead weight on this team and taking a roster spot, and you get a catcher in return.
Everyone is aware of Pudge’s decline, but you can’t take away his defense. He was still the top defensive catcher in the MLB, despite Varitek getting a Gold Glove (eww). He has a sick arm and throws out half the runners.
And i don’t even consider Lo Duca an option because if you want to make fun of Piazza for having crappy defense then lets talk about Lo Duca. He’s just as bad as Piazza was as far as throwing out runners went.
If it does indeed take Kaz Matsui to get Pudge then, it’s a no brainer. And besides it’s not like Pudge would be the main force of the offense. He’s not going to be batting 3rd or 4th. He’d be 6th or 7th in the lineup. And of course…the defense is still there.
If we can get anything for Matsui, go for it, especially if Molina, Hernandez and Nojima don’t lower their asking price.
And despite his low OBP, Pudge will get you 15 HR’s and 30 doubles, if healthy. Now, if I could only reconcile my feelings for steroid abusers, i’d be sold.
Benny, you’d have been better off reading the post before commenting, bro’:
++Lizards In The Cellar, Mate
But this is one guy who AIN’T Dr. D’s kinda player. No way no HOW.++
++1. Jenkins’ eye ratio is very consistent. Consistently nauseating.++
++2. Jenkins is a questionable-OBP player — his lifetime OBP is .349 and I can’t understand how it’s that high.++
++3. Jenkins is horribly injury-prone and turning 31 years old. Horrible in terms of how often, or horrible in terms of the severity of the injuries? Yes.++
++The Brewers don’t want to trade Jenkins because he’s carrying their ballclub through the brush to white sand and surf.++
I heartily recommend seeing the movie before writing the review.
Cheers,
Dr D
For other examples of books that we gave poor reviews on …. Check Washburn, Suppan, and Jacque Jones, for example. They’re in the POTD menu at the right of my blog.
Johjima, though, is a different subject.
First off, the Mets can not go into the season with just castro behind the plate. They need a potentially good backup / split partner at least.
secondly, I love Keppinger, but if he is moved I would love Kelly Shoppach in return…A born elader with lots of pop and nice OBP…coiming into his prime.
Third…Ramon Hernandez is NOT AN AVERAGE CATCHER
here is the average production for catchers in the nl last season: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=9&seasonType=2&type=type1&sort=OPS&split=78&season=2005
7. .234 .318 .391 .708
8. .250 .300 .398 .698
9. .252 .317 .363 .680
10. .261 .323 .349 .672
Hernandez last three seasons:
2003 483 .273 .331 .458 .789
2004 384 .276 .341 .477 .818
2005 369 .290 .322 .450 .772
Not even close!
as for overall team production in 2005…hernandez last 3 years would have ranked (by OPS):
2003 5th 2004 2nd 2005 5th….
you could argue that Ramon is a top five catcher based on these stats….
In 675 ML at bats castro has averaged .222 .304 .387 .690 how does that look filling Piazza’s shoes?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/6325/career
in 3500+ minor league at bats Ramon averaged a .272 BA and .434 SLG…..
In the minors, he does not even hold a candle to hernandez’s last three season….
These two are not comparable!
Oddly Castro’s .690 career ML OPS would place him mid-pack in the national league…there are not many catchers who can do anything productive at the bat….
I just wrote like two pages worth of information that got erased….
#1 The mets must bring someone competant in to at least support Castro
# 2 Hernandez is not average but among the top ten probrably top five in baseball….
Link
Team production at catcher (heres the ML middle AKA average) by OPS
14. .234 .318 .391 .708
15. .257 .302 .397 .699
16. .250 .300 .398 .698
.222 .304 .387 691 Castro’s ML career averages (17th) 675 AB
.244 .321 .435 756 castro’s 2005 stats (tied for 7th)
.272 —- .434 —Castro’s minot league totals 3561 AB’s
Hernandez
2003 .273 .331 .458 .789 rank among team averages 2005 (5th)
2004 .276 .341 .477 .818 (2nd)
2005 .290 .322 .450 .772 (5th)
You could argue hernadez is a top 5 starting catcher….definately top ten overall….
Castro would have some giant shoes to fill in the shadow of Piazza coming off his only productive season with a measly 209 AB’s….
noo way Omar leaves this up in the air…
Eric…why bring up Hernandez first three years? He has been very solid the last three seasons…If we were discussing Piazzza would you bring up his 200-2002 stats while ignoring the 2003-2005 stats?
While you take this guy to school (rightfully so) Eric about grammar and such, it might be worth noting in the same post you school him, you erred also. ‘Tertiary’ refers to being third in order, so there couldn’t be “other tertiary goals”. Perhaps you meant peripheral? If you doubt refer to dictionary.com.
Good catch. In my defense, a 6th grader wouldn’t have gotten that right, either.
No back where not touching Pudge with a 10 foot pole.Id rather have Ausmus then that crazy old roid user.Heck bring back Piazza anything I dont want that loser on our team.What are we the Yankees sign a fossil?
Harry, did you type that on a bad cell connection? The hell you sayin’?
lol actually I was on my phone. Iam saying dont get PUDGE
Big Apple Blog Festival - November 14, 2005
Welcome to the Big Apple Blog Festival (BABF), a representative roundup of this week’s posts by NYC bloggers. Last week’s Big Apple Blog Festival was hosted by Dave Friedman’s Soul of Wit. Next week’s BABF will be hosted again…
I probably missed the great Ramon Castro debate-
but I think what;’s being overlooked is that he was a 1st round pick who took a long time to develop, but as a regular in AAA at ages 23 & 24 he hit:
2000: .335/.380/.628 (214 AB)
and 2001: .336/.393/.628 (390 AB)
his MLB playimng time has been choppy since then: 2001: 11 ab
2002: 101 ab
2003: 53 ab
2004: 96 ab (was hurt and had legal problems and played terribly)
2005: 209 ab.
I think he was terribly mishandled by Florida, his development in the MLB was not what it could have/ should have been- on the otherhand he has no caught as many games at his age as many other catchers so he is less likely to breakdown.
He may have significant upside potential his AAA numbers are: .307/.359/.563 in 957 at bats.
He seems to play better with increased playing time. (Mike Jacobs had a similar pattern- initial minor league play was very poor with sporadic playing time- he exploded when made a regular in AA.
His career MLB OPS is average for a catcher- I suspect it would above average given more regular playing time.
I agree. Florida, for some crazy reason, always kept three catchers on the roster, and that meant very limited playing time for Castro. Tough to get something going when you’re forced into a roster spot that is never used.
For those interested, the Baseball Crank looked over the catching situation, also. His results are similar to what many here have been arguing.
I’m late on this thread, but it sounds like the Ms are going to land the budding Japanese superstar catcher — think they want a japanese all star SS?
As far as Pudge - one word for you — STEROIDS. Is it a mere coincidence that in the first year of testing Pudge comes to ST about 25 lbs. lighter and his power numbers are the worse of his career? I think not. STAY FAR AWAY! Besides, Castro will have a better year than Pudge next year.
On the Ramon Hernandez front, everyone, when discussing Giles talks about how his stats are suppressed by the waaaay pitcher friendly Petco - the same holds true for Hernandez.
where was your roid rage when felix smeared the mets rep (all you said was it was a “fiasco”, whereas here you rant about the guy when technically he is still “clean”)? castro will have a better year than pudge, i think you’re the one on something. what gives you the idea that castro can catch over 50% of the runners? what basis are you making such a ridiculous claim. the guy, like it or not, is the only other hof catcher of the era, he will always be better than castro, even in his sleep. you may not like the guy or wnat him in ny, but you show real lack of evaluation to dememan the guy for anything other than great. And although I don’t really have a problem with castro, its not like he doesn’t have a past of not using the best judgment, yet he’s been fine in the clubhouse and otherwise off the field (that we know of anyway). does fla win it all w/o him? i don’t think so, is castro that type of player? again, NO
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