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October 5, 2005
  
Baseball America: 2006 Draft Order
by: Andrew Hintz on Oct 5, 2005 10:14 PM | Filed under: News

Baseball America has released the 2006 Draft Order:

2006 Draft Order

1. Royals (56-106)
2. Rockies (67-95)
3. Devil Rays (67-95)
4. Pirates (67-95)
5. Mariners (69-93)
6. Tigers (71-91)
7. Dodgers (71-91)
8. Reds (73-89)
9. Orioles (74-88)
10. Giants (75-87)
11. Diamondbacks (77-85)
12. Rangers (79-83)
13. Cubs (79-83)
14. Blue Jays (80-82)
15. Nationals (81-81)
16. Brewers (81-81)
17. Padres (82-80)
18. Mets (83-79)
19. Marlins (83-79)
20. Twins (83-79)
21. Phillies (88-74)
22. Athletics (88-74)
23. Astros (89-73)
24. Braves (90-72)
25. Indians (93-69)
26. Angels (95-67)
27. Red Sox (95-67)
28. Yankees (95-67)
29. White Sox (99-63)
30. Cardinals (100-62)

Arrivederci, first round pick! Billy Wagner, you better not be a bust.


31 Responses to “Baseball America: 2006 Draft Order”

  1. Comment posted by bmc on October 5, 2005 at 10:34 pm (#12792)

    If the first round pick is so important, how come the Braves, who consistently fall later in the draft, manage to compete with youth, and maintain a limitless supply of quality players in their system?

    Draft smarter, not higher. That’s the goal.

  2. Comment posted by Andrew Hintz on October 5, 2005 at 10:43 pm (#12793)

    While that makes sense, it only does so to a degree. The Braves had two first round picks in 2005 (Joe Devine), two in 2003, two in 2002 (Jeff Francoeur), three in 2001, and four in 2000 (Adam Wainwright, Kelly Johnson).

    That’s not even getting into the number of picks they had in Rounds 2 – 3 as well, where they also accumulate a lot of picks and a lot of talent.

    While the Braves certainly do draft smart, it’s not like they’re finding all these guys under rocks or something. The majority of their talented young players are drafted in Rounds 1 through 4, otherwise known as the picks Mets give up to sign free agents.

  3. Comment posted by Ricardo Gonzalez on October 5, 2005 at 10:53 pm (#12794)

    Exactly, Andrew. The Braves offer arbitration to their FA, and get compensation picks in return. The Mets don’t, and often have to start drafting in the 4th and 5th rounds. You can get the best scouting department in baseball, but unless you are getting signability picks, you aren’t going to run into great talent at the stage of the draft. Sure, you’ll get lucky once or twice, but the odds of doing that are against you. For example, Marcus Giles was a 53rd round pick! If the Braves or any other team knew he had even the slightest chance of becoming the player he is now, he wouldn’t have lasted that long.

  4. Comment posted by Chris on October 5, 2005 at 11:29 pm (#12795)

    Just returned from my marathon trip to Suprise Arizona to see the Grabd canyon rafters. It took me 1hr 50 min to get there from my home in marana,az, which is outside of Tucson. It took three hrs to get home because the lack of an highway system in extreme western phoenix. My Impressions. Lastings was clearly the best hitter on his team. I missed the first at bat but I caught the next 4 at bats. He was over matched by Adam Loewen in the third. Adam overmatched the entire rafters lineup. The next ab, Lastings hit a ball off the left centerfield wall right beside the 379 mark. This ball was scorched. The next ab, Lastings turned on the first pitch and deposited it just to the left of the foul pole in left field. Foul ball. Like most Ab’s where a hitter hits a foul home run, he was struck out in the at bat. The next ab, he hit another double to drive in a run. Other mets in the game: Chase Lambin, didn’t really make solid contact. Andy Wilson: He made a few good stops behind the plate but failed to make solid contact. Matt Lindstrom & Jeremy Hill were the two most effective pitchers for the Rafters each pitching two innings. Lindstrom did give up a bomb to an arizona farm hand but pitch well anyway. The batters did not look comfortable against Hill. He was the only Rafters pitcher to have a scoreless outing. A scout told me at the concessions stand that the Rafters have the weakest team in the AFL. He had a Tigers hat on so I’m making the assumption he was from their organization.

  5. Comment posted by Ricardo Gonzalez on October 6, 2005 at 12:01 am (#12796)

    Good stuff, Chris. Who does Milledge remind you of at the plate?

  6. Comment posted by bmc on October 6, 2005 at 12:17 am (#12797)

    I’m not asking to be a smart ass, I honestly don’t know how draft picks are distributed. I mean, I know that the record, FA loss & acquisitions, and FA types are all factors in determining draft slots, but I don’t understand know how exactly those qualities affect which slots, and which round is affected by which team qualities.

    And I was working off the presumption that rounds 2-4 as as vital as the first round, but A) i have no idea how those slots are determined and B)they’re rarely discussed.

    I’ve never actually read the collective bargaining agreement, but i’m sure the next time a bad case of insomnia hits, i’ll give it a shot.

  7. Comment posted by Ricardo Gonzalez on October 6, 2005 at 12:37 am (#12798)

    All the slots are determined by the previous year’s record. But if a team signs one type A or a type B free agent that has been offered arbitration, that team gives up its first round pick. The only exception is when a team has one of the 15 worst records in the league. In that case, the first round pick is protected, and the team gives up its second-round pick instead. If a team signs more than one type A or B free agent, obviously, the team loses its 1st (unless its protected) and 2nd round pick, and then the third and so forth depending on how many FA it signs (though I’m pretty sure there’s a limit for this).

    There have a couple of studies about the draft lately. The one that comes to my mind is the one done by SOHS member “Philly” who studied draft results from a period of time and here’s more or less what he found out:

    Philly Sox Fan studied draft results from 1987 to 1992 and he found that, on average, 155 players, or roughly five players per team, made the major leagues from each draft. Of those 155, twenty nine, or one player per team per year, had a “useful” career. The other four had short appearances in the big leagues or held on for a while despite poor numbers. Of the 29 useful players that make the major leagues each year three of them are “great” players and twelve are “very good” players, giving a team a 10% chance each year of drafting a great player, and a 40% chance of drafting a very good player.

    IIRC, the great majority of those players who became “useful” players were drafted in the first round. That makes sense since usually the best talent is drafted there. I can’t find a link to the study, but IIRC (and I’m going solely on memory here), after the first round, he concluded that after the first round, the draft was a crapshoot. Other people at BTF and elsewhere since then have more or less determined that if a team produces a single “useful” player that the draft was an average one. If it produces a one time All Star, its a very good draft, and if it produces a star, its an excellent draft.

  8. Comment posted by bmc on October 6, 2005 at 1:33 am (#12800)

    What’s the deal with compensation picks then?

    I gotta read up on arbitration.

  9. Comment posted by Ricardo Gonzalez on October 6, 2005 at 2:01 am (#12801)

    If a team offers arbitration to a type A free agent, and he signs elsewhere, that teams gets the 1st round pick of the team that signed him AND a supplemental first round pick (after the 1st round and before the 2nd round). Elias has a rating system to determine who is a Type A, who is a type B, etc free agent.

    Example: When Mike Hampton was a FA, as we all know, he signed with the Colorado Rockies. However, since he was a type A free agent and the Mets had offered arbitration, the team received both the Rockies first round pick (17th) and a compensation pick (38th). With those picks, the team drafted Aaron Heilman and David Wright. The Mets haven’t had a supplemental first round pick since then because usually they haven’t had quality FA’s leave, and when they have (Fonzie), the team hasn’t offered arbitration.

    Needless to say, when a team has more than one first round pick, it has more chances of drafting a star caliber player than if it only has one first round pick, and even more if the team doesn’t have a first round pick. That’s why the A’s didn’t trade Tejada, Giambi, etc in their free agent years. Billy Beane knew that even though he was going to lose those players, he would also be getting two top 40 players for every premium FA the team lost. That’s how they were able to draft Crosby, Street, Swisher, etc and remain competitive all these years.

  10. Comment posted by Chris on October 6, 2005 at 2:25 am (#12802)

    Ricardo, I actually thought about it on the trip back from Surprise. It’s hard for me to compare him to any specifc player. The ball comes off his bat with such force, the only right handed batter I’ve seen hit rockets like Milledge did today is Gary Sheffield. His bat is that quick. The foul home run he hit happened so fast that the third base umpire could not even make a call on it. At a AFL game, you can here all the conversations on and off the field it seems. The third baseman let out a whoa when Lastings hit that foul homerun. I do not think he will be a monster power hitter like Sheffield but once again, it’s too early to really tell. Lastings looks like a doubles machine. I knew going in he was a gap hitter and he didnt disappoint. He isn’t as disiplined as David wright but he isn’t as wild as Reyes. He didn’t swing at any balls today. He needs to take more strikes though. The first pitcher he faced made some very tough pitcher pitches which resulted in swings and misses. He’s a fast runner but since he DH’d, I didnt see him in the field. Some older guy who was at the first game said he asked Milledge why he wasn’t in LF and Milledge said that the organization wants him to be able to play anywhere in the outfield. Take this all for what its worth.

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  12. Comment posted by elliot on October 6, 2005 at 8:24 am (#12805)

    Thanks for this material. Here’s a question. To whom can the Mets offer arbitration this year? Piazza? In other words, do the Mets have any chance whatsoever at gaining a draft pick?

  13. Comment posted by Born Yesterday on October 6, 2005 at 10:03 am (#12807)

    Thats awesome news Chris, thanks for the update

    Good to know we might have another “franchise” type player coming up, I hope he makes the jump quick, sounds like he has as good a chance as any

  14. Comment posted by Joe on October 6, 2005 at 10:07 am (#12808)

    I know we regularly give up our 2nd& 3rd round pick. Isn’t this why we are begining to dip more and more into the Dominican Republic. I mean in this year alone we made high profile signings there and Venezula. We even dabbled in the Mexican league. I kind of chalked the mets signing the Martinez and Guerra kid as getting a 2nd and 3rd round pick. May be this is the draft strategy.

  15. Comment posted by Born Yesterday on October 6, 2005 at 10:09 am (#12809)

    Just think with the youth movement this past year in baseball, if Milledge is good enough to make that jump.

    Now I realize thats a big if, but I have seen lesser talented OFs make the same jump.

    If he has a great ST or tears up AAA in April, think about what that could do for the club?

    Milledge in RF, would allow Diaz to be a 4th OF/PH/RHH 1B

    Now that would be awesome and if we upgraded enough at 2nd/C that could help cover up his struggles somewhat

    Don’t get me wrong, I know that is a mighty big if, but I also said 4 days in that Mike Jacobs might be our starting 1B next year and it looks like he has as good a shot as any. Really with that swing coming from the left side, I think we have a real player in the making

  16. Comment posted by Danny on October 6, 2005 at 10:13 am (#12810)

    know we regularly give up our 2nd& 3rd round pick. Isn’t this why we are begining to dip more and more into the Dominican Republic.

    That’s a good point by Joe. The money not used in the early rounds in the draft can be used to develop young Hispanic players. Omar clearly has placed a higher emphasis on scouting and developing in Latin America. Fernando Martinez is just that start.

  17. Comment posted by DG on October 6, 2005 at 10:56 am (#12814)

    The Mets clearly recognize that they have to make up for their habitual lack of early round picks somwhere else, and that somewhere is international scouting. I read that the Mets felt they had extra money to sign Martinez & Guerra because of their lack of second and third round picks this past year, but I think that that idea is more spin than anything – they spent way more on the two Dominicans than they would have on second and third round picks and further knew that signing their first round pick was going to cost MONEY.

    One decent aspect – perhaps the only decent aspect – of this year’s draft is that the Mets left themselves with some very interesting draft and follow possibilities for 2006. There’s a kid from Queens named Pedro Beato who had Tommy John surgery in 2004 and has committed to a community college in Florida (wants to bring up his value before signing). He may well be a first round draft pick next year if he doesn’t sign with us before the draft; the Mets have already made clear that they’ll sign him at all costs if he shows his old stuff again this year. In addition one of the Mets top 20 picks is also going to JC, and they apparently picked well near the end of the draft, leaving it to the players to show their stuff in order to come on board.

    Here’s Beato draft write up:

    RHP Pedro Beato, who moved to New York from the Dominican Republic six years ago, is projectable at 6-foot-6 and 215 pounds. He might have challenged Alvarez to be the first high school draft in the state had he not had Tommy John surgery in April of 2004 and come back slowly this year. His velocity, up to 92 mph as a sophomore and 93 as a junior, was mostly in the 86-88 range this spring, though it occasionally reached 90. He didn’t show much of a breaking ball because he was afraid to cut loose with the pitch. Beato has indicated he won’t sign, but should be a prime draft-and-follow candidate as he has committed to Seminole (Fla.) Community College.

  18. Comment posted by robb on October 6, 2005 at 12:14 pm (#12820)

    If the mets offer Piazza arbitration, he’ll be a type A free agent. Here comes the 26th and 30 something picks.

  19. Comment posted by Rob Base on October 6, 2005 at 1:21 pm (#12825)

    The Mets should definitely offer Piazza arbitration. What’s the worst that happens? He accepts and gets $10 million? That’s too much to pay him, but it’s not a disaster.

  20. Comment posted by Neil on October 6, 2005 at 2:02 pm (#12829)

    I am an assistant coach on an 18U travel team and our team has seen Beato in the past. I thought that he was very good but nothing really wowed me about him. The “Alvarez” that they allude to is Pedro Alvarez who is a power hitting 3b who we have also played against. Alvarez is by far the better prospect and would’ve been a 1st round pick if his family didn’t require so much money for him to sign.

  21. Comment posted by Jorge in Montana on October 6, 2005 at 2:09 pm (#12830)

    So the padres, who won the division, pick before the Mets, who didn’t. That’s just wrong. I realize that it is done based on W-L record, but getting to the playoffs should put you in the bottom eight of next years draft…

  22. Comment posted by Dan in L.A. on October 6, 2005 at 3:59 pm (#12837)

    Since the study cited above showed a huge difference in quality between 1st Round draft picks and anyone else, it seems logical to me for a team to go FA-shopping when they had a bad season and the #1 is protected, but to layoff if the #1 would be given away as compensation. I mean, last year we signed an ace and a grossly-overpaid CF/”#3 hitter” who posted a .743 OPS, and it cost us our #2 and #3 picks—if we bite twice this year, it costs the #1/#2 picks.

    Play it safe, let Heilman close, and don’t give away the next Heilman/Wright/Milledge/Pelfrey for the next Bustran.

    I’d offer Piazza arbitration, too. Worst comes to worst, we’re stuck with an expensive 1-year deal. But we could get two picks, or win the arbitration, or lose arb but deal him afterwards. (Even if he wins the arbitration, his new contract wouldn’t be as ginormous as his curret deal-killer.)

    Would Trax have been a type A if he’d been healthy? Heck, is still one now?

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  24. Comment posted by Matt Gelb on October 6, 2005 at 4:12 pm (#12841)

    Would Trax have been a type A if he’d been healthy? Heck, is still one now?

    No, but I’d say Looper would be very close to a Type A using Elias’ rankings. Now I’m curious, going to search.

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  26. Comment posted by Matt Gelb on October 6, 2005 at 4:15 pm (#12843)

    Every offseason, the Elias Sports Bureau compiles rankings of all major league players, based on the previous two year’s stats. The players are ranked by position, so first basemen are not compared to second basemen, etc. The players are then broken down into Type A, Type B and Type C (and the rest).

    Type A players are players rated in the top 30 percent of all players at their position. Type B players are players rated in the 31-50 percent bracket at their position. Type C players are players rated in the 51-60 percent bracket at their position. Because the players are only compared to others at their position, some players might be a Type B but seem to be not as good as some Type C players, etc., but that’s how the system works.

    From BA a few years ago. I believe the system is still the same.

    I’d venture to say Looper is in the top 30% of his position.

  27. Comment posted by andrew on October 6, 2005 at 5:23 pm (#12847)

    This draft chart totally wrong. The draft alternates form pick to pick fom League to League.
    So two American League teams would not draft back to back, as well as two National League teams would not draft back to back. This order is probably close, but not totally accurate, on their part.

  28. Comment posted by Ricardo Gonzalez on October 6, 2005 at 5:31 pm (#12848)

    This draft chart totally wrong. The draft alternates form pick to pick fom League to League. So two American League teams would not draft back to back, as well as two National League teams would not draft back to back. This order is probably close, but not totally accurate, on their part.

    They changed the rule last year…

  29. Comment posted by danielj on October 6, 2005 at 7:50 pm (#12854)

    The risk in offering arbitration is that the team’s minimum offer cannot be less than 80% of his last season salary. So, if Piazza earned $15M in 2005, the Mets offer cannot be less than $12M. If you think Mike is grossly overpaid at $12M, and that he may not get a better offer elsewhere given his age and declining productivity, than offering arbitration is a big risk. Of course, there’s also the possibility that the arbitrator will award the player his requested compensation, which could be much more than what the team bids (the arbitrator has to pick one or the other).

    Offering arbitration to guys like Giambi and Tejada was a no-brainer, as they were obviously going to be courted with huge multi-year offers that made one-year settlements a bad deal for them.

  30. Comment posted by danielj on October 6, 2005 at 7:51 pm (#12855)

    My above post was in resposne to #18. I meant to paste in the comments but screwed it up.

  31. Comment posted by Rob Base on October 6, 2005 at 10:47 pm (#12859)

    The 80% rule does not apply to free agents.

  32. Comment posted by Rob from Canada on October 11, 2005 at 7:28 pm (#13549)

    I think that Omar needs to continue making solid decisions. He was criticized for not making any dealine trade, but look what happened the year before. The Mets would be better off continuing to draft and build the farm system instead of losing picks as compensation.

    I don’t think that you offer Piazza arbitration, if your reason for doing it is to gain draft choices. He should be offered arbitration only if the teams wants him back, and if he happens to leave, then the draft choices received would be a bonus.

  33. Comment posted by Bob420 on October 29, 2005 at 11:24 am (#14728)

    Eric Duncan is the best hitter on the Rafters. Much better stats across the board and same age. He is hitting 80 points higher with more 2B’s, HR’s and RBI.

  34. Comment posted by Smitty on December 1, 2005 at 4:12 pm (#19045)

    The other Pedro is the one you should get used to saying. He’ll pitch in the big leagues for a long time.

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