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September 22, 2005
  
Reyes for Kicks
by: Matt Gelb on Sep 22, 2005 1:11 AM | Filed under: Blog

Here goes my (better) version of Page 2’s Daily Quickie.

Jose Reyes now leads the Major Leagues in stolen bases with 57 in just 70 attempts for a stellar 81.4% success rate. Reyes is nine steals away from tying Roger Cedeno’s club mark of 66 in 1999.

You said what? Yes, Cedeno is in the Met record books. 1999 was a very good year for a lot of reasons and Cedeno was no exception. With a .313/.396/.408 line, the 24-year-old Cedeno was just one of the many Mets with career years in ’99 — and he was making $487,500 at that.

Hey, wait a minute. What if Jose Reyes had a .396 on-base percentage in 2005? Well, Reyes is currently averaging a steal every 3.59 times he gets on base. So give Reyes a .396 OBP after 680 plate appearances (his current total) and you’d get exactly 75 steals — a difference of 18 from his present 2005 total.

Okay, .393 is fairly unrealistic to expect from Jose. So how about…

.320 OBP = 61 SB
.330 OBP = 62 SB
.340 OBP = 64 SB
.350 OBP = 66 SB

The Mets have 11 games left and if Reyes stays on his projected track he’ll finish with 730 plate appearances and 61 steals. If at Cedeno’s OBP level, Reyes would end up with 81 steals, good enough to tie 60th all-time for a single season.

A simple and extremely barbaric projection system, but nevertheless something to consider.


61 Responses to “Reyes for Kicks”

  1. Comment posted by tom on September 22, 2005 at 1:43 am (#12200)

    Reyes is the man and will only get better.

    I love him.

    He’s 22 and exciting and I am excited to see what he turns into.

    JOSE REYES IS MY GOD.

  2. Comment posted by kanehl on September 22, 2005 at 1:52 am (#12201)

    About halfway through the season, I noticed that, while his OBP was quite low, Reyes was scoring close to half the times he gets on. Now he scores about 45.6% of the time he gets on. This despite the fact that he’s not exactly backed by Murderer’s Row (Cairo: 15 RBI in 294 ABs; Beltran- 71 RBI in 537). In fact, many of these RS are largely of his creation (e.g., on Tuesday night, when he scored on a walk, an SB, a throwing error, and a WP). He’s got 93 RS so far. Raise his OBP to .330 or .340, put a solid #2 hitter behind him, and hope Beltran comes back strong next year, and what will Jose score then? But he does need to get that OBP up from .300 to create more havoc and opportunities.

  3. Comment posted by thehotcorner on September 22, 2005 at 2:46 am (#12204)

    he only stole 4 in april and 7 in may. after building some confidence and probably some strenght in those legs hes been running like a madman with double digit steals in every month since. this kid has the potential to steal close if not more than 100 bases if he can up that on base % a bit (ok maybe a tad more than just a bit).

  4. Comment posted by Luis on September 22, 2005 at 8:42 am (#12210)

    Reyes already has a GREAT #2 hitter behind him- BELTRAN!

  5. Comment posted by Paladin on September 22, 2005 at 9:47 am (#12219)

    There’s no denying that there’s plenty of room for improvement in Reyes’s game. Still, I think he’s done a fine job this season, especially considering just how much he did improve this year alone. Let’s not forget that this was also his first full year without injury. That’s an accomplishment in itself! Look, every player in the majors has potential. They wouldn’t be there if they didn’t. But Reyes has shown that he does have the ability to learn and improve. I think that he will only get better.

  6. Comment posted by Mark in Astoria on September 22, 2005 at 10:00 am (#12220)

    he scores about 45.6% of the time he gets on. This despite the fact that he’s not exactly backed by Murderer’s Row (Cairo: 15 RBI in 294 ABs; Beltran- 71 RBI in 537).

    Amen to that. Reyes makes things happen. Period. I don’t care if his OBP isn’t as high as it should be, his presence counts for more when he does get on base. And he will get better, remember he’s 22 and lost pretty much a whole year of development in ’04. Nice to finally see some pro-Reyes talk around here. Reyes will prove to be the greatest lead off hitter in the history of this franchise.

  7. Comment posted by Brian S. on September 22, 2005 at 10:40 am (#12223)

    You can’t apply that OPS to his current Ab’s. His AB’s would go down if his OBP was higher. Unless he achieved the OBP in hits and not walks.

  8. Gravatar
  9. Comment posted by Matt Gelb on September 22, 2005 at 11:02 am (#12227)

    You can’t apply that OPS to his current Ab’s. His AB’s would go down if his OBP was higher. Unless he achieved the OBP in hits and not walks.

    That’s why I was using plate appearances, not at-bats.

  10. Comment posted by sweetlew on September 22, 2005 at 1:08 pm (#12235)

    I posted a comparison b/w Carl Crawford and Reyes in the Seo thread – but it seems a better fit here; so I will re-post it – apology to any of you who read it already:

    “Here are Carl Crawford’s (who we can all agree is one of the best all around young players in the game today) stats from the season he turned 22 – the same age Reyes is today:

    In 151 games – .281/.309/.362; 5 Hrs, 9 3Bs and 19 2Bs; 55 steals and 80 runs; 26 BBs/102 Ks

    Here are Reyes’s stats through today:

    In 150 games – .274/.303/.388; 7 Hrs, 16 3Bs and 20 2Bs; 57 steals and 93 runs; 26 BBs/76 Ks

    When comparing two very similar style players at the same age with almost the same number of ABs (Reyes has 15 more than Crawford did in 2003); Reyes has slightly better numbers in everything but average.

    Here are Crawford’s stats this year:

    .304/.332/.475 to go with 45 steals and 99 runs.

    If you can tell me that Reyes will give me those numbers in two years, I would be thrilled! Since he is performing slightly better than Crawford at age 22 – there is a good chance that, minus the HR power, Reyes will have better numbers than Crawford in two years.”

    Crawfrod is not an ideal lead-off batter with a .330 OBP, but, like Reyes, his speed makes him more deadly. For those of you who like to complain about Reyes’s low OBP – tell me, would you rather have Reyes hitting lead-off or Wade Boggs (who hit lead-off for the Red Sox in the late-80s).

  11. Comment posted by Ricardo Gonzalez on September 22, 2005 at 1:25 pm (#12237)

    would you rather have Reyes hitting lead-off or Wade Boggs (who hit lead-off for the Red Sox in the late-80s)

    Wade Boggs, no question about it. There shouldn’t even be a scintilla of doubt about this.

  12. Comment posted by Brian S. on September 22, 2005 at 1:27 pm (#12238)

    RE: AB vs. PA

    Sorry Matt I missed that.

    Reyes scores a lot of runs. His sucess rate of scoring per his OBP has to be top 5 in the MLB. I think he is ~25th in runs in MLB. His speed makes up a lot for his low OBP. I think there are only 7 leadoff hitters ahead of him in runs.

  13. Comment posted by sweetlew on September 22, 2005 at 1:54 pm (#12244)

    Okay – so the Boggs comparision was a pretty poor one – I should have selected a slow high-OBP guy who is not in the hall of fame!

  14. Comment posted by Wes on September 22, 2005 at 2:25 pm (#12246)

    (Just trying to help sweetlew out…)

    Leading off, Jose Reyes or Jeremy Giambi?

  15. Comment posted by thehotcorner on September 22, 2005 at 4:10 pm (#12249)

    If you can tell me that Reyes will give me those numbers in two years, I would be thrilled! Since he is performing slightly better than Crawford at age 22 – there is a good chance that, minus the HR power, Reyes will have better numbers than Crawford in two years.

    i wouldnt be surprised to see numbers like that from reyes next yr including the power spike. if you look it over crawfords line from 04 and 05 are almost identical.

    296/331/450

  16. Comment posted by thehotcorner on September 22, 2005 at 4:11 pm (#12250)

    omg the rest of my post didnt show up!

  17. Comment posted by thehotcorner on September 22, 2005 at 4:16 pm (#12253)

    ok here goes…the short version…

    reyes first full season = crawfords first full season. (actually a bit better)

    reyes season after the all star break = crawfords 2nd two seasons minus the slugging.

    reyes first full season > crawfords first full season in terms of slugging. 37% more XBH and IsoP of .113 to Crawfords .081

    reyes has a better K:BB through the first full season. Less K’s same BB’s. Less K’s and more power through the first full year is a good sign.

    reyes has only 17 more ABs after 1 full season and they were both identical in age (ok reyes was 2 months older).

    reyes will be AT LEAST what carl crawford is and anything less would be a dissappointment to me.

  18. Comment posted by The Real Marty on September 22, 2005 at 5:02 pm (#12257)

    Side note – before the season started I was in Las Vegas and put down some money on a few Baseball bets (3). One was Jose Reyes leading the majors in SBs. The line started at 30-1. When I bet it at the end of the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament, the line was 20-1.

    Keep running Jose!!!

    Scott P. was 2-7 odds.

  19. Comment posted by sweetlew on September 22, 2005 at 5:19 pm (#12260)

    Hey hotcorner – nice to see the stats no only support my argument, they show that I understated it!

    Here’s to a huge breakout year from Reyes in 2006!

  20. Comment posted by Rich on September 22, 2005 at 9:21 pm (#12263)

    Jose Reyes is the best player in history. I know this, because the President of the Jose Reyes Fan Club, Fran Healy, said so.

    I know Fran, it’s a lot of fun to watch “this kid” play. Put your pom-poms down, already.

  21. Comment posted by peg on September 23, 2005 at 1:34 am (#12267)

    Speaking of Vegas bets I bet on Delgado to hit more home runs than Beltran. Looks like that one’s a winner as well.

  22. Comment posted by Crank on September 27, 2005 at 11:24 am (#12408)

    I ran the numbers for my blog . . . Reyes now has a .299 OBP and 97 runs scored. He could be the first player to score 100 with an OBP below .300 since 1892.

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