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May 30, 2005
Interview: Tim Marchman
One of the finest writers around, Tim Marchman is a baseball columnist for the New York Sun and one of the editors for the New Partisan, an excellent web journal of politics, culture, the arts, and sports. His reporting and criticism has appeared in national and local publications such as The New Republic, the Weekly Standard, National Review, and New York Press. If you have not do so, definitely check him out. For my money, he’s the best sports columnist in town. On Saturday, MetsGeek.com asked Tim a couple of questions about the state of the Mets. MetsGeek.com: Lets go back to December and January for a second. What did you think of the Mets’ off season? How big were the acquisitions of Pedro Martinez, and Carlos Beltran? Tim Marchman: I think it still isn’t generally appreciated how big the signings were. Martinez is probably the best pitcher in the National League, good enough to turn an average team into a wild card contender and a good team into a pennant contender. I’m not surprised at how good he’s been and I expect him to pitch at or near this level for the rest of his contract-this is his established level, and he certainly is exceptionally durable for such a supposedly fragile pitcher. Aside from the value he brings over the course of a season, the Mets can go into a game against any pitcher in baseball and win 1-0 if that’s what it takes. They haven’t had the ability to do that in a very long time. Beltran has been something of a disappointment and was still playing at an All-Star level before the injury. That’s very rare. His home/road splits are worrying-he may be a bad fit for Shea offensively, as he seems to be lofting the ball more instead of getting a level swing. Still, it’s not hard to imagine him getting hot and carrying the team into the playoffs. The rest of the offseason moves were perfectly competent and completely unobjectionable. MetsGeek.com: After 50 games at the helm, what is your opinion of Willie Randolph? Can he be a good manager? Tim Marchman: I think he is a good manager right now. It’s easy to point to his bullpen management, lineup construction and choice of back-end starters as flawed, but those are all marginal issues and what many see as bad decisions I see as the downside of his enormous strength, which is his decisiveness. When Randolph says “I don’t look at the stats,” I applaud, because what he’s really saying is that he’s not going to be swayed by a brief hot or cold streak. He’s made his judgments and will stick by them until he’s given reason to doubt them. After the last few years, what this team needs is someone who’s deliberative and calm and doesn’t overreact to the temporary crisis of the day. This can be frustrating, as when Wright is kept below Mientkiewicz in the order, but the upside is that Randolph isn’t going to panic and bench someone at the first sign of trouble. When Diaz takes over a starting role, for instance, he’s not going to be benched the first time he goes three games without a hit. That’s a good thing, and very easy to take for granted, like a lot of what Randolph has done so far. He’s handled Piazza’s decline well, handled Martinez carefully without making it an issue and overseen notable development from Wright, Reyes and Diaz, and doesn’t seem to be getting a lot of credit for any of it. At best, if he can work on his flaws, I think Randolph can be the kind of manager who, like Mike Scioscia, is worth games in the standings. At worst, he’ll do no harm. MetsGeek.com: Now that the season is underway, we also know a bit more about the team. So far, what has surprised you the most about this Mets’ team? What would you say their biggest strengths and biggest weaknesses are? Tim Marchman: Nothing in particular has surprised me. They’re a good but flawed team that’s probably a year away but could win the pennant if things break right. That’s what I thought they were in spring training. Their biggest strength is that they have star players. The main difference between this team and those of the last few years is that this one has Martinez, Beltran and Wright. There’s no way to make up for not having players like that. Their biggest weakness is that they aren’t solid all through the roster. They need a better right half of the infield; the bullpen is weak. But this team has been absolutely horrible for the last few years, so that’s to be expected. MetsGeek.com: How good is The David (or as he is known to mortals, David Wright)? Tim Marchman: Before the season I wrote that he was probably the team’s best player and got some flack from readers who thought I was overhyping him. He’s been a bit better than I thought he would be, but not much. It’s the damndest thing, but I’m not sure people appreciate what they’re seeing. His career line is .298/.362/.533 with speed and defense. He’s hitting in Shea. He doesn’t turn 23 until December. What can you say? The scary thing about Wright is that he hasn’t really filled out yet. I’ve lost count of the amount of balls he had no business reaching that he’s served off the outfield wall; he just smokes everything he hits. At some point I think some of his gap power is going to turn into opposite-field power and then it just won’t be fair. With the possible exceptions of Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Zambrano he’s the most valuable young player in the game right now, and the Mets really should sign him to a long term deal as soon as possible. MetsGeek.com: One of the axioms in modern baseball is that there is no excuse for playing a non-hitter at first base. If so, why are the Mets still playing Doug Mientkiewicz there? Tim Marchman: Coming into the season I didn’t see any reason to worry about him. He was coming off a bad season, but had a track record as a better hitter than he was given credit for and a legitimately great defender. At this point, it’s probably time to admit he’s a problem. What are the other options, though? Bringing in some non-entity like Brian Daubach to platoon with him doesn’t resolve the issue, which is that they need a good player for the position. Until they acquire one the thing to do is stick with Mientkiewicz, who is as good as advertised defensively and brings at least a few positives offensively. Throwing him overboard would be making a move to make a move, and that sort of thing is what’s had the Mets in trouble for the last few years. They should exercise some patience and wait for a real solution to present itself. MetsGeek.com: Continuing with struggling players, how long should the Mets stick with Victor Zambrano? I mean, its obvious that the team is just trying to save face here, but at some point they have to cut their losses, no? Tim Marchman: Zambrano has some positives. He’s durable, has a good fastball and keeps the ball down. I think he’d make a very good multiple-inning reliever-tell him to just throw the fastball over the plate as hard as he can for two innings at a time, two or three games a week. As a starter, he is what he is. MetsGeek.com: Today’s 3-3 performance aside, is Mike Piazza done? Tim Marchman: Only by his own standards. Even as bad as he is defensively, a catcher who hits .250 with 60 extra-base hits and 50 walks, which is what he’s on pace to do, is a plus. He certainly looks awful, though-slow and heavy, like he doesn’t have full control over his body. I do wonder what he could do if he would adjust his approach. He seems to still be trying to use his opposite-field power, which is pretty much gone. He’s also never walked a great deal, though he is a very patient hitter. Since he’s not going to hit higher than about .250, perhaps he should intentionally try to draw more walks to get on base more. MetsGeek.com: In your latest column you suggest the Mets should trade Mike Cameron and Aaron Heilman for Barry Zito. Do you really think this is a deal Omar should be making? The former Cy Young has been struggling mightily and the Mets wouldn’t exactly be buying low. Cameron is one of the premiere centerfielders in the game and one whose defense makes him one of the best players in the game while Heilman is an acceptable 4th starter making the league minimum. Tim Marchman: Heilman has a track record of being horrible as a professional, he only has two pitches, neither of them particularly impressive, and this year his road ERA is 6.96. The Mets also have Jae Seo, a similar but much better pitcher, and guys like Petit and Humber coming up. I’d move Heilman for the first bag of balls that came along before his ERA goes up over 6 again. Cameron is a very fine player, but the Mets aren’t getting full value out of him because he’s not playing center for them. He’s also blocking their best hitting prospect and, if rumors are to be believed, is generally held by other teams to be worth a decent reliever. So would I trade those two for Zito in the hopes that a reunion with Rick Peterson could fix him? I’d do it a dozen times and not think twice about it. More broadly, I think it’s the kind of deal the Mets should be making right now, one with an acceptable downside (Zito, even at his worst, is a decent mid-rotation starter) and a potentially great upside. There’s no reason not to take a few risks right now. MetsGeek.com: Gun to your head, how many games do the Mets win this season? Tim Marchman: 86. MetsGeek.com: Finally, I remember reading that you grew up idolizing the 86 Mets, a team famous for its many personalities. So I was wondering, did you have a favorite player back then? Who was it, and why? Tim Marchman: My favorite on the 86 Mets was Keith Hernandez. Ballplayers usually aren’t cool. He was cool in every possible way there is to be cool. He got the girls and the drugs, everyone listened to what he had to say, and he played the thinking man’s game. My favorite from the era was David Cone for essentially the same reasons, besides which he was very small when he came up, which made it easy to identify with him. Since you didn’t ask, I’d just like to ask people to stop grousing about Jose Reyes and appreciate what an extraordinary talent he is. His EQA is .245; the major league average for shortstops is .250. He’ll be 22 in two weeks. If he doesn’t improve a lick he won’t be hurting the team, and he’s going to improve. In the meantime he’s one of the five or so most exciting players in the majors, at the very beginning of a career that will see him make many All-Star teams, perhaps win an MVP award, and maybe even end up with a plaque in Cooperstown. 23 Responses to “Interview: Tim Marchman”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Nice interview. Tim’s saying what I’ve thought the whole year….that this is a sell year for the mets to improve and turn into a very good young team that is in contention for years to come. Also, if the Zito trade is possible I would be overjoyed. A young former Cy-Young for an old centerfielder who doesn’t play centerfield and a young pitcher with promise…but not proven. Boy would i be happy if Minaya could orchestrate that trade.
Good questions and nice interview gents.
Great interview, OFF.
1) He’s made his judgments and will stick by them until he’s given reason to doubt them.
I believe that this can be a strength but it can be weakness if it takes a long time for him to doubt his decisions.
2) I agree with Marchman about Reyes although I’m kind of surprised about how high he thinks his upside is. Reyes is pretty much a league average shortstop right now. The only issue I think people should have with Reyes right now is the fact that he is batting leadoff but I can live with that because I believe it’s the right thing to do long term.
3)Wow, that trade is intriguing. Heilman’s pitched well this season but he is what he is, a fourth or fifth starter at best. Cameron has played extremely well so far this season but he isn’t this good. Zito hasn’t pitched all that well and isn’t very cheap anymore. At the very worst, Zito will pitch as well as Heilman. Are the chances of Zito breaking worth the downgrade that playing Diaz in right rather than Cameron represents? In additon, can Floyd stay healthy?
Like what Marchman had to say about Reyes, though I also think the upside isn’t as great as Marchaman says it is -we do have to remember the guy isn’t even 22, he’s got a lot of room to grow.
Not sure what I think about getting Zito. Maybe a reunion with Peterson helps, and maybe simply a move to the NL would help, both because less hitter familiarity and the no-DH. But maybe, as was suggested in the NY Times a coupe weeks ago, he’s turning into the next Steve Avery - really good young lefty on a great young staff early on, and then just barely mediocre, and then bad.
Great interview Off,I Disagree with Tim on the heilman point,hes better then what tim says he is and his changeup is nasty unlike tim says.I have to agree with him on the Reyes point i think he’s going to have a big june and i think he’ll be an all-star this year its between him and that dude from clorado but i think reyes will get it just cause he doesnt play in colorado.To me Barry Zito is a one hit wonder and he is what he is,a slightly above average pitcher.
One of the reasons why I wouldn’t do that deal, as intriguing as it may be, is because by getting rid of Cameron, you lose one, if not the most important reason why you’d want to get Zito: He’s an EXTREME flyball pitcher and one who would certainly benefit of Shea Stadium (*) and the defense Cameron and Beltran could provide in the OF.
(*): I’ve been meaning to write an article on this, but I’ve haven’t had the time nor the statistical ability to do it. Anyway, when I was interviewing MGL, he said the following about Shea, which I thought was very interesting:
Agree about Reyes, who is getting more selective at the plate–going deeper into the count, getting better pitches to hit, and drawing more walks. He looks better swinging LH too, holding back on his swing a bit.
As for the Zito for Cammy and Heilman deal. No way. Heilman does not look like a 6 ERA guy and Cameron looks MUCH better batting than last year. Cammy and Wright are the team’s best hitters now. Zito is mediocre (He’s no Hudson). The Mets have plenty of starters in NY and in the minors. We need to trade one or two of them for hitting, bullpen and catching help during the year.
I like the trade too but it will never happen. Oakland is one of Cameron’s no trade teams. Why would he want o go back to the West Coast and play for such an awful team if he was not comnpelled to do so?
I’d much rather see Floyd moved than Cameron. I know that makes us weak from the left-hand side, but his fielding is sketchy and he’s bound to have another injury soon. Cameron is a better fit in our outfield.
Of course, I’m still holding out hope that when Beltran comes back he requests a move to Right Field now that he’s seen Cammy play CF every day, so who knows what I’m smoking over here.
I don’t understand you guys.
1) Have you watched Beltran and Cameron play center? Beltran is soooooo much better. He glides to it and is there almost every time. He’s much faster than Cameron.
2) Do you guys really see any use in having Cameron? He’s old, he’s overpaid, he’s hitting well now but we all know what he is (250, 20-30 hrs, 150 k’s). I see no future in him. I see Diaz playing right field. Zito still has great stuff. He’s still young. As people have said a change of venue, a reunion with Peterson and the NL could spark him. He was a Cy Young winner three years ago, lest we forget. Even in his “off” seasons the last few years, that’s as good if not better than what I expect Heilman to be.
3) As has been mentioned, this mets team is a very good team but flawed. It’s a year away from contention. Trade Cameron, get what you can. Trade Floyd, get what you can. Try and trade piazza, get what you can. So what if they make the playoffs and lose first round this year. Is it worth it to try and buy old guys at the expense of young talen? NO. I want this team to get lots of young talent and to be able to contend for years, not just this year. So out with the old and in with the new.
1) Have you watched Beltran and Cameron play center? Beltran is soooooo much better. He glides to it and is there almost every time. He’s much faster than Cameron.
That’s not true. Beltran might look smoother, but Cameron gets to more balls. Speed has nothing to do with it since both are very fast runners. The reason why Cameron is better is because he plays shallow and takes a LOT of singles away. The numbers bear this as Cameron’s UZR has consistently been higher than Carlos’. And though it doesn’t mean much, Cammy also has more gold gloves than Beltran.
Look, I don’t disagree with your point. The Mets should not be irrational and think they are a contender this year, but that doesn’t mean they should conduct a firesale and “get what they can.” Cameron is not overpaid, and he’s not old, he’s a very valuable commodity, and if no one else realizes this or no one is willing to give up close to what he’s worth, then the Mets should keep him. Simple as that. The point is not whether Zito is better than Heilman or not, its whether it makes sense to trade Cameron/Heilman AND pay Zito’s salary. One of the things people forget about when thinking about trades is that when you do trade for “superstars” like Zito, you lose talent and you don’t exactly save money, whereas if you get a Zito-like starter in FA, it only costs you money. What’s the point of getting a stater in mid-season, when their value is at their highest, if you are not going to try to compete?
So what if they make the playoffs and lose first round this year. Is it worth it to try and buy old guys at the expense of young talent? NO.
This is tied to the other point, but let me just talk about this here. Well, yeah, you are right, if the only goal of a baseball team is to win the World Series, the Mets should probably start thinking about next year. But, and this is a very important point, that is not the only goal of baseball teams nowadays. You have to remember that baseball teams are business and as such depend on profit to put competitive teams. The Mets, even in a more precarious situation since they have one of the largest payrolls and relatively low turnout, can’t throw the towel now because it would KILL all the good vibes they created this winter. If the Mets trade all their high-priced FAs for prospects and the team ends up in 4th place, they’ll lose money from ticket sales, they’ll lose the leverage they have against Cablevision, they’ll lose money from advertisment AND they’ll lose would-be-subscribers for their new network.
great interview Ricardo. I agree on your last point on baseball moves being tied to business Ricardo, I made that point elsewhere on this page after everyone was freaking after the Braves sweep and the Mets were coming off record crowds at Shea. Also I think its important for the Mets to stay in it to maintain excitement. Mets fans need hope and a firesale would kill that hope (even if it would be better for next year). They can always trade Cameron or Floyd or whoever in the offseason. But right now they are three games out and they haven’t always played to potential plus Beltran and Matsui are hurt. I think the NL East is ripe for the picking if the Mets get more consistent. and the Mets being in the race this year, despite flaws, will give Mets fan everywhere hope. Hope that they can win a World Series someday. Hope that wasn’t there last year.
Robin,Cammy is a much better centerfielder then beltran,do you remember the bloop hits that fell infront of beltran?
Everybody is focusing on Reyes’ offense, but the big dissapointment is his defense. He is dead last in the Majors in RF, 3rd from bottom in ZNR, and 4th from bottom in FPCT.
Case in point. Most shortstops don’t let Cabreras’ ball go by them in the 8th inning of the last game. Alex Gonzalez might get a DP.
Reyes was supposed to be great on defense. At the moment he’s far from it.
Case in point. Most shortstops don’t let Cabreras’ ball go by them in the 8th inning of the last game. Alex Gonzalez might get a DP.
The Mets were shading Cabrera up the middle because a) he often goes to RF and b) he singled up the middle the last time he faced Bell.
Te idea of trading Heilman and Cameron for Zito is — not to put too fine a point on it — preposterous. That is so because:
(a) Cameron is the most valuable player in that deal (especially when you take salary into account, but even if you don’t); to give him and Heilman for a lesser player (Zito) would be idiotic;
(b) Marchman is just plain wrong about Heilman, who IMO has turned an important corner. Did he suck since mid-2003, when he got shelled in his first shot in the majors? Sure. So have plenty of pitchers who needed to take a beating and learn. Heilman looks like a different pitcher now, and I think the turnaround is real. He has NOT been “horrible as a professional” — he was doing well up to his call-up in 2003, looking like a fine pitching prospect. He has a very impressive change-up, and strong command of it.
Is he as good as Zito? Of course not. But frankly, I want no part of Zito, not at that price, not with that trend in his performance.
…and this year [Heilman's] road ERA is 6.96.
This is the sort of “lies, damned lies and statistics” manipulation of the data that IMO is about on a par with “Hernandez is hitting .372 on Wednesdays” for unsupported extrapolation based on a short, misleading sample.
Heilman has made four road starts this year:
1) Rushed to the majors and fed to the Braves, he struggled, IMO understandably. (GS 34)
2) Off the sensation of the 1-hitter, being faced with media attention on a level he’d never faced, and going up against an embarrassed Marlins club for the second time in a week, he got lit up (GS 14). Again, I can give this a pass.
3) On national television in D.C., he gutted his way to a QS (GS 52) and the Mets got the win.
4) Sitting through two rain-delays in Chicago, he pitched a fine game and left with a 4-0 lead, only to see Dae-Seung Krap inflate his ERA (and knock the GS down to 52) by blowing the lead.
So, two IMO excusable bad outings, followed by two good ones, with the last road outing being the best. I’m not really worried that Heilman’s a Shea-only pitcher. Right now, Barry Zito has a much better chance of seeing the ERA get over 6.00 than Heilman does. I’d still like Zito, but something more along the lines of the Benson deal (eliminating the Huber/Bautista/Keppinger element, it was essentially Wiggy and Peterson for Benson) would be a lot better than the overpayment Marchman’s suggesting here, methinks.
good point Ricardo about the fact that the organisation has to show face. I would prefer to see a younger team with great potential and something to get excited about then an older team that strikes out and hits into a million doubleplays (cough, cameron and piazza, cough). Unfortunately, I dont think the mets will make the playoffs. The division is too good for them at the moment. They have a huge mental block against the braves and the marlins have one of the best young pitching staffs in the game. The Mets will probably be close enough in the playoff race that they won’t be able to trade away older players for young prospects (specifically a catching replacement for piazza) and I just hope that they don’t trade away youth for older players.
Anybody else read about how mike dejean went to the game scorer and told him that david Wright desevered a eror on that jaun pieere play where they gave him a hit?? I think it was in the journalnews. That’s a F**ked up thing to do and he hasn’t been pitching good enough to do that selfish s**t,i mean whats one less hit goin to do for his bum ass?
mike dejean really did that? You gotta seriously be joking with me. If I was Minaya I would have the locker room staff clean out his locker put it in some boxes and leave it out in the parking lot. Not only is dejean a worthless piece of crap but Wright is the cornerstone of our team for the next 10+ years. If Willie is such a character man he should have a chat with minaya and tell him he doesnt want a selfish player like dejean on the roster. Anyone remember rickey henderson playing cards in the locker room?
I dunno if I want Zito, but I think we should trade Cameron. He has shown absolutely no track record in his career of being able to keep the average anywhere near this high, so you know that it will fall back into the .230-.250 range. Might as well get something for him while he’s tearing the cover off the ball.
And calling Cameron “one of the best players in the game,” is a big-time stretch, OFF.
He has shown absolutely no track record in his career of being able to keep the average anywhere near this high, so you know that it will fall back into the .230-.250 range. Might as well get something for him while he’s tearing the cover off the ball.
Gil, IMO there is no reason to trade Cameron. He and Beltran (and, amazingly, Floyd) have given the Mets an outstanding OF defense. Sure, he’s not going to keep hitting like this, but he will provide power and a decent OBP. I would be very nervous trading him and leaving little to no OF depth, especially with Floyd injury-prone and Beltran having suffered a muscle tear. For this team, having four starting-quality OFers is not a luxury; it’s a near-necessity.
They should be willing to listen to offers for Cameron, but should not be looking to trade him. Omar should pull the trigger only if something really special comes along — and packing Cameron and Heilman for Zito is hardly special.
I’d endorse a Cameron-Heilman for Zito trade in a nanosecond if I thought the A’s would go for it. But why would they? You mean to tell me that Beane would trade a mid 20’s left handed starter with a Cy Young in his resume for a mid 30’s OF who will K at least 120 times a season and a # 4 pitcher with a career ERA of about 6? (Also consider the added benefits of making room for Diaz in the OF and maybe in the rotation too, if a Zito trade was folowed by a trade/demotion of either Zambrano or Ishii.) I don’t mean to disparage Cameron and Heilman, they’ve performed well this season, but lets have a little perspective. At this time last year, Mets fans were ready to send them out of town on a rail. And if the A’s were crazy enough to do this proposed trade, I’d jump all over it, recent performance trends be damned. Maybe this is the Z-man that Peterson could turn around in 10 minutes…
I’d endorse a Cameron-Heilman for Zito trade in a nanosecond if I thought the A’s would go for it. But why would they?
Why would they??? For the same reason they dealt away Hudson and Mulder: they’re going to lose Zito in a year and a half anyway, and might as well get something for him.
Why else? Well, maybe because Zito’s numbers last year took a big, bad tumble — this after they took another tumble from 2003 to 2004. And so far this year, they are worse still. If you can get another team to pay for a player’s past glories, while living with his decline, and get some value in return, you do it without hesitation.
Yes, Mets’ fans were ready to run Cameron and Heilman out of town on a rail in 2004. As to Cameron, it was just plain idiotic. And as to Heilman, while he was bad, it was another indication of the impatience of Mets’ fans with young players who don’t perform well. His turn-around should be a cautionary tale about the risks of giving up on a player too soon.
I don’t want to “make room for Diaz.” I want to have four outfielders who can do the job, because any team with Cliff Floyd is going to need that many, at least.