Ladies and Gentlemen your 2010 PECOTA Standings

[John]

W L RS RA
96 66 885 729 Tampa Bay Rays
95 67 882 737 Boston Red Sox
93 69 917 789 New York Yankees
79 83 864 889 Baltimore Orioles
71 91 773 878 Toronto Blue Jays

W L RS RA
82 80 860 849 Minnesota Twins
79 83 789 812 Chicago White Sox
79 83 794 814 Detroit Tigers
77 85 796 838 Cleveland Indians
66 96 798 961 Kansas City Royals

W L RS RA
87 75 791 737 Oakland Athletics
86 76 794 741 Seattle Mariners
85 77 883 842 Texas Rangers
76 86 830 882 Los Angeles Angels



W L RS RA
88 74 846 778 Philadelphia Phillies
85 77 802 757 Atlanta Braves
82 80 770 757 Washington Nationals
77 85 814 854 New York Mets
76 86 823 875 Florida Marlins

W L RS RA
89 73 802 724 St. Louis Cardinals
82 80 780 772 Cincinnati Reds
77 85 779 823 Chicago Cubs
75 87 766 829 Houston Astros
75 87 827 895 Milwaukee Brewers
70 92 754 873 Pittsburgh Pirates

W L RS RA
87 75 787 727 Los Angeles Dodgers
85 77 824 787 Arizona Diamondbacks
81 81 769 772 San Francisco Giants
80 82 843 852 Colorado Rockies
74 88 718 783 San Diego Padres



so yeah 77 wins lol.

[MyFavBaseballSquadron]

How much does health factor in? They're saying that a relatively healthy seasons from Beltran and Reyes, an improvement in LF over last year are good enough for 7 more wins than last year's injury-fest?

[sheadenizen]

I assume they're taking into account that the Mets have no pitching. I'm sure they factored that in. It doesn't matter if Reyes hits .320 and Beltran hits 30 HRs. If your pitchers give up more runs than you score....you generally lose. lol!

[John]

We need to be careful. This apparently isn't the finished version

playing time I don't think is completly factored in yet

I mean Washington 82 wins and ahead of us?

I'm not sure

[John]

Exactly

scoring over 800 is pretty good

giving up 854 kills us tho

last season we were
671 rs
757 ra

their run environment is screwed a bit. Right now they are saying 5.0 average. It hasn't been that high since 2000. Typically it's been 4.6 - 4.8 range.

[MyFavBaseballSquadron]

Washington has 150 lbs. OF that can smack walk off grand slams off of the single season saves record holder, that's gotta be good for at least 10 wins right?

[peejay]

john,

do we have a way to evaluate PECOTA predictions from previous years? how far off were they from predicting the complete and total loss of bowel control that occurred in citi field last season

[peejay]

also, wow at three 90-win teams in AL East and none anywhere else. i guess they will go undefeated in interleague and games outside their division.

[peejay]

also, three posts in a row!

[MyFavBaseballSquadron]

Hat trick for PJ:

[peejay]

how is it that the nationals are only giving up 757 runs? is it there total commitment to pitching and defense.

since this is john's thread, i will end my post with lol

[peejay]

thanks squad!

is that one of those swiffers that squirt?

[peejay]

3peat

[peejay]

i love that the royals will give up almost 0.5 more runs per game than the next worst team (brew-hoo)

[MyFavBaseballSquadron]

Another hat trick for PJ:

[John]

I'm not putting a whole lot of stock on this

I'll wait on the final numbers
two predictions so far had the mets at 77 and 82 wins

There's two parts to these things predicting actual stats and also predicting playing time. The mets last year was so messed up cause of the playing time issue.

Last year was the first year I did my own but I couldn't really evaluate the results cause everyone was hurt

I had us 92-70. We went 70-92 lol

I did come within 5 runs of run allowed but was wayyy off on runs scored.

[peejay]

soo compared to san diego we score 100 more runs and give up 70 more runs and this translates to 3 more wins......someone's simulator has us getting beat 10-8 in cbp a few times

[peejay]

i know that these things don't mean much. the computer can't account for the little things that happen during the season. your 92 win prediction must have made that 70 win season all the more painful.

at least this year, we can feel good about our 79 wins when we beat our projections!

SUCK IT PECOTA!

[peejay]

33333333333333

dynasty

[peejay]

do you think pirates fans are getting psyched up for their first 70+ win season since 2004? they have not been above 0.500 since 1992 :(

[MyFavBaseballSquadron]

The curse of Sid Bream.

[peejay]

i am looking at the stats of the 1990-1992 pirates and am amazed that the played in the nlcs 3 times. leyland got the most out of his team, especially in 1992 when it was just bonds (pre-clear, pre-cream)

[MyFavBaseballSquadron]

By that point the Mets dynasty that never was, was in full meltdown mode. The Cards weren't that good either. And the Phillies and Expos weren't good. I suppose kind of by default the Pirates were the cream of the NL East.

[John]

I'm thinking I need to start following hockey more lol

[littlefallsmets]

The high 70s is, sadly, a pretty fair prediction for the Mets as constituted, yeah.

[peejay]

By that point the Mets dynasty that never was, was in full meltdown mode. The Cards weren't that good either. And the Phillies and Expos weren't good. I suppose kind of by default the Pirates were the cream of the NL East.

and the bravos put them to bed at the end of 91 and 92

[MyFavBaseballSquadron]

The Braves were in the NL West at that time.

[John]

77 is realistic

I do think higher then that low to mid 80's is also reasonable

[Squadron Nye]

I'm not putting a whole lot of stock on this

I'll wait on the final numbers
two predictions so far had the mets at 77 and 82 wins

There's two parts to these things predicting actual stats and also predicting playing time. The mets last year was so messed up cause of the playing time issue.

Last year was the first year I did my own but I couldn't really evaluate the results cause everyone was hurt

I had us 92-70. We went 70-92 lol

I did come within 5 runs of run allowed but was wayyy off on runs scored.


it was a valiant effort johnny. Maybe this year's predictions can be the first article in the new geek?

[Donal]

How did the Mets defense get almost 100 runs worse? I understand they haven't figured in Jason Bay just yet, but do they really think it will be that bad?

Also, KC will turn some heads. Taking third in AL Central, maybe the division with some luck.

[John]

it was a valiant effort johnny. Maybe this year's predictions can be the first article in the new geek?

Probably not. The CPA has basically killed all my baseball analysis for the time being lol